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Post by manchesterman on May 3, 2024 21:12:19 GMT
Thanks for the replies all.
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Post by manchesterman on May 3, 2024 21:02:12 GMT
Anyone know what was at play here? On the face of it, a massive rejection of the 2 big parties. WP and Green votes soaring out of nowhere. Seems out of step with the other wards?
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Post by manchesterman on May 2, 2024 19:07:45 GMT
There's too much concensus on the placings here. Just for the sake of being different: Lab 56.3 RefUK 18.2 Con 17.8 LD 2.9 Grn 2.3 AFDF 0.9 Black 0.7 OMRLP 0.6 NONPOL 0.3 Would such a result lead to letters being sent to 1922??
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Post by manchesterman on May 2, 2024 13:50:15 GMT
I usually abstain from PCC elections as I dont think these roles should be politicised (as they are in America), because I dont want law enforcement to become a political ballgame (as it is in America). However, given that he's a member of the forum, I thought I'd make an exception, so I cast a vote today for trickyreturns If you win, I'll know where to come if I have police issues
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 30, 2024 12:27:05 GMT
Labour 53.9 Conservative 19.9 Reform UK 15.9 Liberal Democrats 4.9 Green 3.9 OMRLP 0.4 Independent (Black) 0.4 NONPOL 0.4 AFDAF 0.3
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 29, 2024 10:02:09 GMT
The department of Var in the south of France is named after a river that, since boundary changes in 1860, is no longer in the department. Correct. Boundary changes have moved VAR to Stockley Park
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 27, 2024 21:25:41 GMT
Literally laughed out loud at the final entry on that list
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 18:26:25 GMT
Also, if you're of a certain vintage....
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 18:25:53 GMT
What I don’t quite understand is that if a party member received a phone call from her friend the MP in the middle of the night in those terms, why didn’t she immediately phone the police and say that she feared that he might have been kidnapped or was being coerced or blackmailed? I suspect that the 78 year old lady in question knew exactly the kind of character said MP was and thought that the last thing he would want (or the local party would want) was the police finding out about it and then investigating all the associated shenanigans!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 1:51:04 GMT
East Cambs: LD 53; Con 25; Lab 22
Waverley: LD 35; FR 30; Lab 21; Con 14
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 16, 2024 18:52:09 GMT
Forgot about this...despite reading Tony's reminder and making a post-it note for myself ..which I promptly forgot about!
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7sThe seats breakdown (GB) was: Lab 207 BXP 184 Con 111 LD 84 SNP 45 PC 2 Green 1
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7s
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 13:44:52 GMT
12 entries this week, all on time but with corradino picking up 1 fault for going over in North Yorkshire. Inverness South, Highland: 100% with SNP ahead on first preferences, then with 9 Independent (McDonald) gain from Liberal Democrats after transfers, and johnloony, kevinf and manchesterman SNP gain after transfers.Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone, North Yorkshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (corradino and iainbhx) to 26% (andrewp). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWafqzCporRc3cnTl2IyfDwQMCOS_vwEzW4GrfLkNGs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Point of order please Robbie. I've been penalised on the database for SNP win after transfers, whereas I correctly predicted an Indy win after transfers Not that it makes up for a poor effort by me in Inverness. Did better in N. Yorks though!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 23:07:32 GMT
LD 43.8% Con 30.8% Green 15.1% reform 5.7% Lab 4.6%
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:59:47 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:11:28 GMT
Harrow E is 104th I believe. But yes, I agree they have a shot there..but that's quite a lot of lost seats before getting to a "hold"!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:09:04 GMT
The Arizona Supreme Court has just revived a 160 year old (from before Arizona was even a state) abortion ban, including in cases of rape and incest. I think it’s fair to say that this will not help Republicans in the state. Even Kari Lake has come out against this opinion. She just waits to hear what Trump's opinion is on any topic, then repeats it. so no surprise really
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:04:35 GMT
Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency. C an't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise... Funnily enough I was perusing my list of marginals this last weekend and pondering which is the most marginal seat(s) I could just about imagine the Tories holding. Scottish seats excepted for reasons already given and obvious, the ones I feel they have the best chance of holding onto are those where the opposition could be fairly evenly split. So the top of my list was Caerfyrddin in Wales (54th most marginal) where they are, on the notionals, about 8% ahead of Plaid and 14% ahead of Labour. So I could see a scenario where all 3 parties poll somewhere in the high-20s and they just hold on. Their best shot in England could be Wimbledon for the same reason, but I think this is a far less likely outcome, given the different dynamics between metropolitan London vs rural Wales.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 10, 2024 18:39:28 GMT
Highland: SNP 32; McDonald 22; Con 22; LD 10; Lab 8; Grn 3; Alba 2.5; Sov 0.5 (Ind McDonald win on transfers)
N Yorks: LD 45; Con 32; Grn 8; Lab 8; RefUK 7
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