Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 15, 2024 21:00:52 GMT
HIGHLAND UA; Inverness South (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CHARTIER, Jonathan (Liberal Democrat)
DUNCAN, Jimmy (Alba)
FORBES, Ryan (Conservative)
MacDONALD, Andrew (Sovereignty)
McDONALD, Duncan Cameron (Independent)
SHANKS, Gordson (SNP)
SHARMA, Arun (Green)
STEVENSON, Ron (Labour)
2022: SNP 1949; Ind 1375; Con 936; LD 478; Lab 402; Grn 299; Alba 104
2017: SNP 1287, 376; Con 1022; LD 799; Ind 583,527; Lab 387; Christian Party 104
Jimmy Duncan (Alba) was the only candidate who stood here last time. Ryan Forbes (Con) and Duncan McDonald (Ind) stood in Inverness West and Arun Sharma (Grn) in Inverness Central.
Current Council: SNP 21; Highland Ind 18; LD 14; Con 8; Highland All 5; Grn 4; Lab 2; Alba 1; 1 vacancy
NORTH YORKSHIRE UA; Stray, Woodlands & Hookstone (Ind elected as Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
CHARTERS, Gilly (Green)
ENNIS, John Radcliffe ( Conservative)
FOXALL, Geoff (Labour)
SWALES, Jonathan Mark (Reform UK)
TIMOTHY, Andrew David (Liberal Democrat)
2022: LD 1350; Con 910; Lab 189; Ind 167
John Ennis was the Conservative candidate here last time and is former county councillor for Harrogate Oatlands which overlaps with this division and former district councillor for Harrogate Stray ward. Gilly Charter (Grn) stood in Oatland & Pannal and Geoff Foxall (Lab) in High Harrogate & Kingsley.
Currrent Council: Con 45; LD 12; Lab 11; N Yorks Ind 9; Grn 4; Con & Ind Grp (Ind) 3; Ind Unaffiliated 2; Lib 1; Social Justice Party 1; Reform 1; 1 vacancy
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 15, 2024 21:25:59 GMT
Inverness South looks like the best chance of an SNP win under Hamza so far, but they've flunked every previous chance so who knows.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,425 
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on Mar 16, 2024 0:32:51 GMT
The Independent councillor for Inverness South was trumpeting an Independent candidate (Duncan McDonald) on Twitter a few days ago, so not sure what happened there. Edit: he is on the SOPN, so think Tony Otim has missed him off |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 26, 2024 17:21:52 GMT
The Independent councillor for Inverness South was trumpeting an Independent candidate (Duncan McDonald) on Twitter a few days ago, so not sure what happened there. Edit: he is on the SOPN, so think Tony Otim has missed him off It is certainly not unheard of for me to make a mistake or two (although more commonly listing a candidate whose nomination is withdrawn). In this case I'm fairly certain he wasn't listed when I did the post. It is possible I went off the list on the council website rather than the actual notice of poll, but I'm fairly certain he wasnae there at that point... |
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Mar 31, 2024 19:26:33 GMT
Inverness South looks like the best chance of an SNP win under Hamza so far, but they've flunked every previous chance so who knows. Inverness South certainly looks impossible for the Lib Dems to defend in a first past the post by-election. The gap in first preference votes was huge. I wonder how many ‘paper’ candidates get elected unexpectedly under the Scottish local government election system. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 31, 2024 20:17:50 GMT
Inverness South looks like the best chance of an SNP win under Hamza so far, but they've flunked every previous chance so who knows. Inverness South certainly looks impossible for the Lib Dems to defend in a first past the post by-election. The gap in first preference votes was huge. I wonder how many ‘paper’ candidates get elected unexpectedly under the Scottish local government election system. A few, but in this case the Lib Dem was almost certainly not a paper candidate as they were defending a seat in the ward from the previous elections... |
|
|
|
Post by jknine on Apr 1, 2024 8:15:56 GMT
Inverness South looks like the best chance of an SNP win under Hamza so far, but they've flunked every previous chance so who knows. I agree that if the SNP fail to win this one, then they will have ‘flunked’. They have been top-of-the-midden in the last two elections. Since this is a by-election, then they (should) be in the best position to win. However, ‘flunked’ is the wrong word to use in the previous chances. If I recall correctly, they have not been TOTM in the elections before the by-elections. So failure to win those by-elections was to be expected. |
|
|
|
Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 1, 2024 17:48:15 GMT
HIGHLAND UA; Inverness South (Lib Dem resigned) Candidates: CHARTIER, Jonathan (Liberal Democrat) DUNCAN, Jimmy (Alba) FORBES, Ryan (Conservative) MacDONALD, Andrew (Sovereignty) McDONALD, Duncan Cameron (Independent) SHANKS, Gordson (SNP) SHARMA, Arun (Green) STEVENSON, Ron (Labour) 2022: SNP 1949; Ind 1375; Con 936; LD 478; Lab 402; Grn 299; Alba 104 2017: SNP 1287, 376; Con 1022; LD 799; Ind 583,527; Lab 387; Christian Party 104 Sovereignty registered since 2021: search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP12666 |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 5, 2024 21:54:16 GMT
Inverness South is a safe ward for the SNP. If they are losing in Inverness South at a general election their MP tally would be in the single digits.
The independent candidate is the most viable challenger to the SNP there. It could go either way by a wide margin. Would be a real shocker if Labour or the Lib Dems won it, especially given how far behind the SNP they were in 2022.
Given this is a council by-election, the ward's history and this being an STV election, my guess is an independent win on transfers.
|
|
|
|
Post by phil156 on Apr 7, 2024 19:16:44 GMT
North Yorkshire counts on Thursday Highland on Friday
|
|
clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
|
Post by clive on Apr 10, 2024 21:31:13 GMT
Inverness South is a safe ward for the SNP. If they are losing in Inverness South at a general election their MP tally would be in the single digits. The independent candidate is the most viable challenger to the SNP there. It could go either way by a wide margin. Would be a real shocker if Labour or the Lib Dems won it, especially given how far behind the SNP they were in 2022. Given this is a council by-election, the ward's history and this being an STV election, my guess is an independent win on transfers. Its not STV Scottish Council by elections are by AV (you cant have STV for a single post as thee are no surpluses to distribute) |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 11, 2024 6:37:42 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Apr 11, 2024 8:53:36 GMT
Inverness South is a safe ward for the SNP. If they are losing in Inverness South at a general election their MP tally would be in the single digits. The independent candidate is the most viable challenger to the SNP there. It could go either way by a wide margin. Would be a real shocker if Labour or the Lib Dems won it, especially given how far behind the SNP they were in 2022. Given this is a council by-election, the ward's history and this being an STV election, my guess is an independent win on transfers. Its not STV Scottish Council by elections are by AV (you cant have STV for a single post as thee are no surpluses to distribute) AV is just the special case of STV where there is only one seat to fill. Surpluses only get distributed after the first candidate has been elected. |
|
clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
|
Post by clive on Apr 11, 2024 15:27:23 GMT
STV is a system for allocating seats in a multiple constituency in a moderately proportionate way. You can not have a proportionate result with one candidate to be elected. Whilst electors vote in the same way the counting process and result is entirely different. That.s why NI does not allow by elections for STV elected seats.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Apr 11, 2024 15:40:34 GMT
STV is a system for allocating seats in a multiple constituency in a moderately proportionate way. You can not have a proportionate result with one candidate to be elected. Whilst electors vote in the same way the counting process and result is entirely different. That.s why NI does not allow by elections for STV elected seats. That’s not the reason for NI not having AV by-elections. |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
|
Post by cogload on Apr 11, 2024 22:58:15 GMT
North Yorkshire is a LD hold. (ALDC).
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 11, 2024 22:58:48 GMT
NORTH YORKSHIRE Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone
TIMOTHY, Andrew David (Liberal Democrat) 1,094
ENNIS, John Radcliffe ( Conservative) 768
CHARTERS, Gilly (Green) 376
SWALES, Jonathan Mark (Reform UK) 141
FOXALL, Geoff (Labour) 116
A result which I suspect will not please my relatives who live in this division.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 23:07:32 GMT
LD 43.8%
Con 30.8%
Green 15.1%
reform 5.7%
Lab 4.6%
|
|
|
|
Post by greenman on Apr 11, 2024 23:19:12 GMT
That's quite a shift for the Greens from no candidate to 15.1%.
|
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,579
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Apr 11, 2024 23:21:16 GMT
Harrogate changes
LD -7.8%
Con -4%
Lab -2.6%
Green new
RefUK new
No ind from before,
|
|
