Ask the Forum thread- psephology

[AdminSTB]

I want to trial something:

This is a stickied thread where members can ask questions about any psephological matter, no matter how obscure, or make requests for psephological data to be compiled or made available.

Please keep your questions relevant and your requests realistic, do not make demands on any one member in particular, and please be very patient in waiting for the replies.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First Question EVER!!!!!

Do you think that Plaid Cymru can emulate the success of the SNP and win Wales in a landslide in 2020 or 2025 or later?

[iain]

No

[Pete Whitehead]

This is a very well timed thread as I have genuinely come across a question today which I'm sure someone here will know the answer to. I am doing some work with the 1982 London borough elections and there is a party listed as SLAG which contested just about every seat in Kensington & Chelsea (and a couple of wards in other boroughs). They got very few votes everywhere but it was an impressive enough effort to find so many candidates. The Thrasher & Rallings retrospective handbooks don't include party keys so I'm hoping someone here might know what the letters stand for and a little bit more about the party

[Davıd Boothroyd]

'Save London Action Group'.

They were a largely middle-class protest group who were opposed to demolition of historic buildings and lobbied about planning in general. They disliked party politics in local government. Wanted to reinstate the town cryer. Apparently founded at a rally in Hyde Park in July 1972; their strongest area was Kensington and Chelsea, but this was the only borough where they continued to run extensive candidates up to 1982.

For London Borough election results, it's far better to read the GLC Intelligence Department/London Research Centre/GLA series of books: data.london.gov.uk/elections/

[Crimson King]

Aug 13, 2016 12:15:46 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

First Question EVER!!!!!

Do you think that Plaid Cymru can emulate the success of the SNP and win Wales in a landslide in 2020 or 2025 or later?

Swan will doubtless speak for himself, but I think the intention of this thread is to seek factual answers to specific questions (e.g. where can I find the results for Plaid Cymru in the 1972 Cardiff council elections?) rather than asking for opinions, which would be better posed on other threads

[carlton43]

We used to have coloured headings on every board where one could click for election results tables. I can't find how to access these from the altered menu system. Can anyone help please?

A completely separate point is the maintenance of those boards which slid badly over the past two years with errors, long gaps and very slow reaction to elections held. That system was what originally drew me in to the Forum and I am unhappy to see it fall into disuse because of neglect.

Further I wonder if we might discuss the expansion of those lists to provide more information and better comparators with previous elections and by-elections and to decide the methodology of whether to quote previous main election only or by-election only or both? And perhaps we could have a 'Notes' facility so that members can add interesting material to any result where it seems appropriate. I am making a plea for these boards to be expanded, corrected and brought up to date.

[The Bishop]

Those sites are the responsibility of Kris - he has acknowledged he let things slip there recently.

Maybe he will have more time to bring them up to scratch now?

[Andrew_S]

Aug 13, 2016 12:15:46 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

First Question EVER!!!!!

Do you think that Plaid Cymru can emulate the success of the SNP and win Wales in a landslide in 2020 or 2025 or later?

I very much doubt it. There's some evidence that Wales is becoming one of the most conservative places in the UK (with a small c), and I think Plaid Cymru's support will remain around 10% in general elections.

[Deleted]

Aug 13, 2016 12:15:46 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

First Question EVER!!!!!

Do you think that Plaid Cymru can emulate the success of the SNP and win Wales in a landslide in 2020 or 2025 or later?

Highly unlikely: Wales is not Scotland.

The roots of Plaid Cymru lie in the movement to save the Welsh language, and its support is heavily concentrated in "Welsh Wales". 

Unlike Scotland, Wales has no modern tradition of statehood to which nationalists can appeal, nor even of earlier unity under indigenous rulers. The Welsh have a strong sense of themselves as a people, but hitherto this has not expressed itself as a desire for political independence, and I see no imminent signs of it doing so. 

[carlton43]

Aug 13, 2016 13:34:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Those sites are the responsibility of Kris - he has acknowledged he let things slip there recently.

Maybe he will have more time to bring them up to scratch now?

Thank you. So that are not available at all now? In effect separate private property?

[Jack]

Aug 13, 2016 14:41:10 GMT carlton43 said:

Aug 13, 2016 13:34:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Those sites are the responsibility of Kris - he has acknowledged he let things slip there recently.

Maybe he will have more time to bring them up to scratch now?

Thank you. So that are not available at all now? In effect separate private property?

www.englishelections.org.uk

[carlton43]

Aug 13, 2016 14:43:05 GMT Jack said:

Aug 13, 2016 14:41:10 GMT carlton43 said:

Thank you. So that are not available at all now? In effect separate private property?

www.englishelections.org.uk

Thank you Jack. Now in my favourites. This thread works.

[johnloony]

Aug 13, 2016 13:22:47 GMT carlton43 said:

We used to have coloured headings on every board where one could click for election results tables. I can't find how to access these from the altered menu system. Can anyone help please?

A completely separate point is the maintenance of those boards which slid badly over the past two years with errors, long gaps and very slow reaction to elections held. That system was what originally drew me in to the Forum and I am unhappy to see it fall into disuse because of neglect.

Further I wonder if we might discuss the expansion of those lists to provide more information and better comparators with previous elections and by-elections and to decide the methodology of whether to quote previous main election only or by-election only or both? And perhaps we could have a 'Notes' facility so that members can add interesting material to any result where it seems appropriate. I am making a plea for these boards to be expanded, corrected and brought up to date.

It sounds as if you are referring to Kris's other websites on local by-election results. In other words, not part of this forum.

[carlton43]

Aug 13, 2016 22:53:15 GMT johnloony said:

Aug 13, 2016 13:22:47 GMT carlton43 said:

We used to have coloured headings on every board where one could click for election results tables. I can't find how to access these from the altered menu system. Can anyone help please?

A completely separate point is the maintenance of those boards which slid badly over the past two years with errors, long gaps and very slow reaction to elections held. That system was what originally drew me in to the Forum and I am unhappy to see it fall into disuse because of neglect.

Further I wonder if we might discuss the expansion of those lists to provide more information and better comparators with previous elections and by-elections and to decide the methodology of whether to quote previous main election only or by-election only or both? And perhaps we could have a 'Notes' facility so that members can add interesting material to any result where it seems appropriate. I am making a plea for these boards to be expanded, corrected and brought up to date.

It sounds as if you are referring to Kris's other websites on local by-election results. In other words, not part of this forum.

Thanks John. I hadn't realized they were only linked from this Forum and formed no part of it. I now have a link in my favourites.

[Andrew_S]

Aug 13, 2016 13:00:24 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

'Save London Action Group'.

They were a largely middle-class protest group who were opposed to demolition of historic buildings and lobbied about planning in general. They disliked party politics in local government. Wanted to reinstate the town cryer. Apparently founded at a rally in Hyde Park in July 1972; their strongest area was Kensington and Chelsea, but this was the only borough where they continued to run extensive candidates up to 1982.

For London Borough election results, it's far better to read the GLC Intelligence Department/London Research Centre/GLA series of books: data.london.gov.uk/elections/

IIRC some sort of historic building was demolished in the Kensington & Chelsea area in 1982 just before an anti-demolition order could be granted. I can't remember the other details at the moment but I'm sure someone will know what I'm talking about.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 15, 2016 7:56:57 GMT Andrew_S said:

IIRC some sort of historic building was demolished in the Kensington & Chelsea area in 1982 just before an anti-demolition order could be granted. I can't remember the other details at the moment but I'm sure someone will know what I'm talking about.

Are you thinking of the infamous Firestone factory demolition? Trafalgar House had it knocked down over the August bank holiday in 1980, having heard it was going to be listed on Tuesday morning. It was out west but in Hounslow, not in K+C. Now the site of the Sky TV headquarters (among other things).

[Kristofer Keane]

Aug 13, 2016 14:41:10 GMT carlton43 said:

Aug 13, 2016 13:34:25 GMT The Bishop said:

Those sites are the responsibility of Kris - he has acknowledged he let things slip there recently.

Maybe he will have more time to bring them up to scratch now?

Thank you. So that are not available at all now? In effect separate private property?

They're still available at www.englishelections.org.uk www.scottishelections.org.uk etc. But they are massively out of date at the moment. I intend to work on them again, but I'm just taking a total psephology break at the moment til I feel fully recuperated.

[carlton43]

Aug 15, 2016 9:51:50 GMT Kristofer Keane said:

Aug 13, 2016 14:41:10 GMT carlton43 said:

Thank you. So that are not available at all now? In effect separate private property?

They're still available at www.englishelections.org.uk www.scottishelections.org.uk etc. But they are massively out of date at the moment. I intend to work on them again, but I'm just taking a total psephology break at the moment til I feel fully recuperated.

Thanks for the response Kris. I had always thought of them to be central to this Forum and not just a link out of it and quite separate. I have missed them and thus my various prompts over recent months. I look forward to your attention as and when. Meantime enjoy your break. I hope you use recuperation loosely and there is no medical problem of which I am unaware?

[greatkingrat]

If you are looking for by-election results, you may find www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/index.htm useful, plus there is Andrew Teale's site for the annual elections.