Most marginal seats heading into an election

[jakegb]

In many instances...if the polls are on your side.

The Tories (in opposition) failed to recapture Wellingborough in 01 and Cheadle in 05 (and the subsequent by-election).

[batman]

In 2019 Labour were very close to holding Kensington though if they had the MP would very likely have been expelled by now. The caveat is that perhaps if she had won her behaviour might have been modified a bit

[Clark]

Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency.

Can't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise...

[uthacalthing]

Emma Dent Coad really is the very model of a middle-class lefty as defined by Wes Streeting

[stb12]

Apr 9, 2024 17:39:00 GMT Clark said:

Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency.

Can't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise...

Scotland arguably still provides the best chance of that considering the different dynamics

[uthacalthing]

If the Scottish Tory-SNP marginals were being fought in the Scottish Parliament, I would fancy the Tories to take the SNP but this is a UK GE, and the electorate, or enough of them, know the difference, they will punish the discredited Tory government then in time punish the discredited SNP government

This discernment BTW is a a very good thing

[Clark]

Apr 9, 2024 18:21:32 GMT stb12 said:

Apr 9, 2024 17:39:00 GMT Clark said:

Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency.

Can't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise...

Scotland arguably still provides the best chance of that considering the different dynamics

Yes Scotland is a slightly different dynamic.

I actually give the Conservatives a shot of a GAIN in Aberdeen South although Flynn will be a tougher nut to crack than most.

[Clark]

Tactical voting in Scotland is still something I am unsure of. Do Tory voters vote Labour to keep the SNP out? But at the same time, Tory voters want a Tory government so voting Labour is obviously against their wishes too.  So it's a catch 22 situation. As a Labour voter, I tactically voted SNP in Aberdeen South the keep the Tories out. I will not be voting SNP this time however.

[uthacalthing]

It is easier for Tory voters to vote Labour than Labour voters to vote Tory especially so in Scotland where they are Unionist first, Tory second.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Apr 9, 2024 19:50:36 GMT uthacalthing said:

It is easier for Tory voters to vote Labour than Labour voters to vote Tory especially so in Scotland where they are Unionist first, Tory second.

it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God

[nobodyimportant]

Damn Tory camels

[bsjmcr]

Bury North is of course the most marginal Tory seat in England (105 votes, but boundary changes up that slightly to about 1,000) but as the archetypal marginal it’s hard not to see it gained by Labour. I feel there’s almost a simultaneous incumbency effect going on with a negative one for James Daly, known to purely toe the party line and block constituents on social media, and a positive one for former MP James Frith, who, though he lost, remains active in the area and is probably why the swing wasn’t greater in 2019.

Having said that, there are some ‘stubborn’ Tory areas at a local election level such as Tottington and Bury West which have voted Conservative through thick and thin and this year’s LEs / Mayoral election will be interesting to see because should they hold on to those seats / show lower than average enthusiasm for Burnham (of course he won every GM ward, but some of his ‘less good’ tallies were in a couple of Bury wards IIRC) then James Daly won’t be embarrassing himself too much even if he loses the seat. If the Tories lose Radcliffe North (the ward joining BN) to Radcliffe First, and continue to reject Labour, then that is precisely the sort of area where Reform would do well at the GE.

[batman]

Labour did win Tottington in 2012 but admittedly that’s a rarity

[stb12]

Apr 10, 2024 23:36:33 GMT bsjmcr said:

Bury North is of course the most marginal Tory seat in England (105 votes, but boundary changes up that slightly to about 1,000) but as the archetypal marginal it’s hard not to see it gained by Labour. I feel there’s almost a simultaneous incumbency effect going on with a negative one for James Daly, known to purely toe the party line and block constituents on social media, and a positive one for former MP James Frith, who, though he lost, remains active in the area and is probably why the swing wasn’t greater in 2019.

Having said that, there are some ‘stubborn’ Tory areas at a local election level such as Tottington and Bury West which have voted Conservative through thick and thin and this year’s LEs / Mayoral election will be interesting to see because should they hold on to those seats / show lower than average enthusiasm for Burnham (of course he won every GM ward, but some of his ‘less good’ tallies were in a couple of Bury wards IIRC) then James Daly won’t be embarrassing himself too much even if he loses the seat. If the Tories lose Radcliffe North (the ward joining BN) to Radcliffe First, and continue to reject Labour, then that is precisely the sort of area where Reform would do well at the GE.

Have to give him some credit for standing though rather than retiring or seeking another seat, he must know the seats a goner even if the Tories don’t have as bad a night as expected

[manchesterman]

Apr 9, 2024 17:39:00 GMT Clark said:

Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency.

Can't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise...

Funnily enough I was perusing my list of marginals this last weekend and pondering which is the most marginal seat(s) I could just about imagine the Tories holding.

Scottish seats excepted for reasons already given and obvious, the ones I feel they have the best chance of holding onto are those where the opposition could be fairly evenly split.  So the top of my list was Caerfyrddin in Wales (54th most marginal) where they are, on the  notionals, about 8% ahead of Plaid and 14% ahead of Labour. So I could see a scenario where all 3 parties poll somewhere in the high-20s and they just hold on.  Their best shot in England could be Wimbledon for the same reason, but I think this is a far less likely outcome, given the different dynamics between metropolitan London vs rural Wales.

[iain]

Harrow East seems an obvious candidate, I’m not sure where that is on the list.

[manchesterman]

Harrow E is 104th I believe. But yes, I agree they have a shot there..but that's quite a lot of lost seats before getting to a "hold"!

[Clark]

Not really down within the true marginals but the Tories could hold on in places like Nuneaton and Harlow where their vote held up reasonably well in recent local elections compared to elsewhere.

[bsjmcr]

Apr 12, 2024 6:44:44 GMT Clark said:

Not really down within the true marginals but the Tories could hold on in places like Nuneaton and Harlow where their vote held up reasonably well in recent local elections compared to elsewhere.

I think any Tory majority of over 10,000 is ‘everything to play for’ and I’m sure there will be some that they do better in and hang on, depends on how entrenched the Tory vote is, even if it was Labour pre-2010, while there will be some ‘historic’ Labour gains where a large swing is likely, in areas they have never won before. It seems plausible that they will gain Macclesfield or Bournemouth (circa 10,000 majorities) but not others they may have held 97-10. 

The ‘red herrings’ will be those that experienced a large swing on the basis of Get Brexit Done - will they swing back just as fast, or has the Tory vote been entrenched just as, say, Cannock Chase is now likely out of reach? E.g. Mansfield, Middlesbrough South, Bassetlaw, etc. 

In ‘97 Labour appeared to ‘underperform’ in some Midlands seats like Aldridge, Bromsgrove, etc, which had majorities around 10,000, where the conservative held on by a few thousand, and yet they ousted Portillo who was sitting on an over 15,500 majority. 

[bsjmcr]

Apr 11, 2024 20:03:48 GMT stb12 said:

Apr 10, 2024 23:36:33 GMT bsjmcr said:

Bury North is of course the most marginal Tory seat in England (105 votes, but boundary changes up that slightly to about 1,000) but as the archetypal marginal it’s hard not to see it gained by Labour. I feel there’s almost a simultaneous incumbency effect going on with a negative one for James Daly, known to purely toe the party line and block constituents on social media, and a positive one for former MP James Frith, who, though he lost, remains active in the area and is probably why the swing wasn’t greater in 2019.

Having said that, there are some ‘stubborn’ Tory areas at a local election level such as Tottington and Bury West which have voted Conservative through thick and thin and this year’s LEs / Mayoral election will be interesting to see because should they hold on to those seats / show lower than average enthusiasm for Burnham (of course he won every GM ward, but some of his ‘less good’ tallies were in a couple of Bury wards IIRC) then James Daly won’t be embarrassing himself too much even if he loses the seat. If the Tories lose Radcliffe North (the ward joining BN) to Radcliffe First, and continue to reject Labour, then that is precisely the sort of area where Reform would do well at the GE.

Have to give him some credit for standing though rather than retiring or seeking another seat, he must know the seats a goner even if the Tories don’t have as bad a night as expected

Or defecting like his opposite number in South…

Speaking of which, on a similar note, David Sumberg stood again in ‘97, despite only having a ~700 majority, having perhaps surprisingly held off the challenge from Hazel Blears in ‘92, who of course went on to higher things…