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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:20:27 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7s
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 13:44:52 GMT
12 entries this week, all on time but with corradino picking up 1 fault for going over in North Yorkshire. Inverness South, Highland: 100% with SNP ahead on first preferences, then with 9 Independent (McDonald) gain from Liberal Democrats after transfers, and johnloony, kevinf and manchesterman SNP gain after transfers.Stray, Woodlands and Hookstone, North Yorkshire: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (corradino and iainbhx) to 26% (andrewp). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWafqzCporRc3cnTl2IyfDwQMCOS_vwEzW4GrfLkNGs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! Point of order please Robbie. I've been penalised on the database for SNP win after transfers, whereas I correctly predicted an Indy win after transfers Not that it makes up for a poor effort by me in Inverness. Did better in N. Yorks though!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 23:07:32 GMT
LD 43.8% Con 30.8% Green 15.1% reform 5.7% Lab 4.6%
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:59:47 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:11:28 GMT
Harrow E is 104th I believe. But yes, I agree they have a shot there..but that's quite a lot of lost seats before getting to a "hold"!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:09:04 GMT
The Arizona Supreme Court has just revived a 160 year old (from before Arizona was even a state) abortion ban, including in cases of rape and incest. I think it’s fair to say that this will not help Republicans in the state. Even Kari Lake has come out against this opinion. She just waits to hear what Trump's opinion is on any topic, then repeats it. so no surprise really
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 11, 2024 22:04:35 GMT
Labour likely fought seats like Wellingborough, Kettering, Rugby & Kenilworth etc hard in 2001 in an effort to hold on - and of course they had the added benefit of incumbency. C an't see the Conservatives holding any of their marginals this year but there's normally 1 or 2 that throw a surprise... Funnily enough I was perusing my list of marginals this last weekend and pondering which is the most marginal seat(s) I could just about imagine the Tories holding. Scottish seats excepted for reasons already given and obvious, the ones I feel they have the best chance of holding onto are those where the opposition could be fairly evenly split. So the top of my list was Caerfyrddin in Wales (54th most marginal) where they are, on the notionals, about 8% ahead of Plaid and 14% ahead of Labour. So I could see a scenario where all 3 parties poll somewhere in the high-20s and they just hold on. Their best shot in England could be Wimbledon for the same reason, but I think this is a far less likely outcome, given the different dynamics between metropolitan London vs rural Wales.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 10, 2024 18:39:28 GMT
Highland: SNP 32; McDonald 22; Con 22; LD 10; Lab 8; Grn 3; Alba 2.5; Sov 0.5 (Ind McDonald win on transfers)
N Yorks: LD 45; Con 32; Grn 8; Lab 8; RefUK 7
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 8, 2024 13:25:31 GMT
Disappointed in my Uckfield prediction of Ind to win by 1 vote when he actually won by 4!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 4, 2024 22:23:58 GMT
I wonder if the election staff would get a day off in Looe
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 3, 2024 23:25:03 GMT
Sorry about my extended absence. I was about to do this tonight, but you saved me the bother
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 3, 2024 22:59:41 GMT
Cornwall. LD 63, Con 27, Lab 5, Green 5 North Northants. Lab 45, Con 40, LD 10, Green 5 Wealden. Ind 36, Lab 36, Con 28 (Ind win by 1 vote)
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 2, 2024 20:03:09 GMT
Lab Gain from Con FLINTSHIRE UA; Brynford & Halkyn 🔶 LIBDEM, CASE, David, 98, 1️⃣ IND1, 53, 2️⃣ IND2, 36, 🔴 LAB, 329, 🟢 GRN, 95, 🔵 CON, 287, Thanks to David Case and his team for flying the flag l🔶 Most annoyingly, this is where I now live after a long, protracted house move from hell! I actually got in 2 days before the election but have been up to my neck in sorting out various issues since then. The annoying thing is I get doorstepped by 3 candidates and had leaflets from just about all of them..which I kept to one side to share on here, but when I asked my wife if she'd seen them last night she said "I threw them out last week as the election's over" If my house move had gone to plan I'd been in with a few weeks to spare and couldve voted, but looks like I'll have to wait for the locals now.
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2024 20:26:16 GMT
One possibility is that he’s bullshitting, but the other possibility is that he’s just being a bit clumsy in expressing his words and calculations. If the raw figures are correct (13,460 PVs and 12,335 GG votes), then he might think that it is interesting that 12,335 is 91% of 13,460, but he might not even be intending to say that they are the same 12,335. The first time I stood as a candidate (for the Chocolate Fudge Cake Party in Fairfield ward, Croydon, in 1994) there were 175 postal votes out of the turnout of 4,998. I got 175 votes. It’s interesting that it’s the same number.Are you sure it wasnt in Tower Hamlets?
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2024 20:15:46 GMT
As things stand he already owes hundreds of millions in fines, with the prospect of more to come. Therefore he could end up in even more desperate financial straits than he already is, yet still end up the most powerful man on the planet. So, having a POTUS with massive debts, an off-the-scale level of narcissism and lack of regard for anyone/anything else, but with access to "information/influence" for which the right people would be willing to pay untold fortunes. What could possibly go wrong?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 23:30:03 GMT
Just thinking, if Ali wins I imagine he will possibly get one of the most "underwhelming" (in terms of the usual spontaneous outbreak of cheering and whooping that usually accompany by-election results) receptions ever for the 'winning' candidate?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 23:02:20 GMT
This is incorrect, according to the Guardian. Some people had already voted Ali by post, and if there are 24k postal votes as has been speculated, there could be a fair number of Ali voters. If Galloway romps the "on the day" vote but loses thanks to the PVs we can probably assume an unhappy bunny. And a threat of legal action. STOP THE STEAL!! STOP THE STEAL!!
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 22:40:01 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30% Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60% Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00% Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30% Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00% George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50% Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90% William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90% Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30% Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30% David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00% Winning Party Predictions Range 9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00% 7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80% 1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80% 1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA
Excellent effort in quick time, especially considering your real-life issues which you mentioned earlier and I hope are not proving too burdensome
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 22:07:44 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 18:23:22 GMT
F*** me. What an awful..well..you can guess.. "If Labour lose...Starmer could well be forced out as Labour leader" is quite a take!
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