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Post by maxque on May 15, 2024 14:09:28 GMT
Two seats changed hands: Labour took a first seat in Manor by 30 votes, and unseated the one Conservative in Broadheath by just 6 votes. We ran it really close in Bowdon, the Tory majority reduced to 21. The Lib Dems only made small gains in Hale Barns and Timperley South, remaining over 300 behind. Also, we had a surge in Old Trafford, with an entirely non-target candidate coming in with over 1000 votes. Gaza influence, presumably?
Edit: oh, also, I was re-elected with a 400 majority. Third: Lab 15 (+2), Con 2 (-2), LD 2, Grn 2 Council: Lab 43, Con 8, LD 6, Grn 6
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Post by maxque on May 14, 2024 20:28:34 GMT
www.thurrock.gov.uk/vote2024Third: Lab 12 (+8), Ind 4 (+4), Con 1 (-12) Council: Lab 27 (+8), Con 13 (-10), Ind 9 (+2) Labour gain from Conservative in: Aveley and Uplands (by 514 votes) Belhus (by 589 votes) Chadwell St Mary (by 694 votes) Chafford and N Stifford (by 252 votes) Little Thurrock Blackshots (by 106 votes) Ockendon (by 147 votes) S Chafford (by 330 votes) The Homestead (by 18 votes over Ind, by 141 votes over Con) Independent gain from Conservative in: Corringham and Fobbing (by 258 votes) E Tilbury (confirms defection, by 281 votes over Lab; by 629 votes over Con) Stanford E and Corringham Town (by 41 votes over Lab, by 426 votes over Con) Stanford-le-Hope W (by 112 votes over Lab, by 350 votes over Con) Close hold: Orsett (Con hold by 87 votes over Ind)
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Post by maxque on May 14, 2024 19:29:08 GMT
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Post by maxque on May 14, 2024 18:59:35 GMT
So, a quick summary: Overall the Residents alliance consolidated its hold on Tandridge district council. Seat numbers and changes were: Residents 20 +1 Lib Dem 11 Tory 7 -2 Ind 5 +1 Behind this were a number of movements. First, the erosion of the Tories across most of the District continues; they lost three more seats, one to the Lib Dems in Bletchingley (by 6 votes, as noted, ejecting a long-standing and locally popular councillor in favour of perennial Lib Dem candidate Richard Fowler), the second seat in Harestone to the Lib Dems also, and one to the Residents in Woldingham where the Tories took only 120 votes to the Residents' 477 in what is usually a rock-solid safe Tory seat. The Tories did gain a seat in Portley, but this was a result of the Lib Dems having insufficient candidates. Three of their seven remaining seats were only held due to under-nomination by the Lib Dems. The Residents have started to move into the north of the district, fighting in a couple of Caterham seats with no success, but delivering a smashing victory in Woldingham as noted above. A separate Independent Residents group in Whyteleafe took a seat off the Lib Dems in a very tough contest, helped by long-standing Lib Dem councillor David Lee standing down. For the Lib Dems there was real disappointment in losing the second seat in Whyteleafe where we have been strong for years. We were also frustrated that we had all four existing councillors in the two Caterham Hill wards (Portley & Queens Park, and Westway) stand down, either through serious ill-health or moving away from the area, and one of their replacements also had to withdraw unexpectedly at the last minute, which left us with only three candidates for six seats across the two wards, but we were delighted that they came first in Portley and first and second in Westway, making these our top targets for next time around. We were really pleased that Richard got home in Bletchingley after years of hard work, and hope to build on that breakthrough south of the M25 when the Residents' seat is up for re-election in 2027; the Independent there, Helena Windsor, is likely safe as along as she wants the seat! Finally, holding on in Warlingham East in the face of a rather nasty campaign and strong localist challenge was a real achievement; we were still knocking up after 8pm and that effort got us over the line. Overall, while our seat total is unchanged we have more targets for 2026/7 than we started with and our first seat south of the M25, which are both big steps forward. The detail of Residents is: Oxted and Limpsfield 8 Godstone 3 Burstow, Horne and Outwood 3 Lingfield and Crowhurst 2 Dormansland and Felbridge 2 Bletchingley and Nutfield 1 Whyteleafe 1 Bletchingley and Nutfield: 1 Ind, 1 BN Res, 1 LD ( Ind 640, BN Res 518, LD 501, Con 495, LD 366/348, Con 343) Burstow, Horne and Outwood: 3 BHO Res Chaldon: 1 Con Dormansland and Felbridge: 2 DF Res, 1 Con ( Con 705, DF Res 655/591, Ind 565, Con 458/328) Godstone: 3 G Res Harestone: 2 LD (Con 63 votes away from a seat) Limpsfield: 2 OL Res Lingfield and Crowhurst: 2 LC Res, 1 Ind ( LC Res 739/684, Ind 584, LC Res 521) Oxted N: 3 OL Res Oxted S: 3 OL Res Portley and Queens Park: 2 Con, 1 LD ( LD 767, Con 637/499, Caterham Res 493, Con 468, Lab 352/336/277) Tatsfield and Titsey: 1 Ind Valley: 2 LD Warlingham E and Chelsham and Farleigh: 2 LD, 1 Ind ( Ind 850, LD 506/499, Ind 495, Con 494/268/246) Warlingham W: 2 Con (LD 159 votes away from a seat) Westway: 2 LD, 1 Con ( LD 622/571, Con 423/412/406, Lab 405/360/345) Whyteleafe: 1 W Res, 1 LD ( W Res 441, LD 313, W Res 302, LD 233) Woldringham: 1 Ind
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Post by maxque on May 14, 2024 17:06:08 GMT
Labour win Amington ( by 238 votes) Belgrade ( by 373 votes) Bolehall ( by 585 votes) Castle ( by 282 votesGlascote ( by 324 votes over Con; Ind defector 4th) Mercian ( by 225 votes) Spital ( by 33 votes) Stonydelph ( by 108 votes) Wilnecote ( by 399 votes) Conservative hold Trinity ( by 117 votes over Lab) www.tamworth.gov.uk/elections-2024Their ward link downloads a word document with the declarations on it per page Third: Lab 9 (+9), Con 1 (-9) Council: Lab 18 (+9), Con 8 (-6), Ind 4 (-3)
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Post by maxque on May 14, 2024 16:01:53 GMT
www.swindon.gov.uk/electionresultsThird: Lab 14 (+9), Con 5 (-9) Council: Lab 41 (+9), Con 15 (-8), 1 LD, 0 Ind (-1) Labour gain from Conservative in: Central (by 1279 votes) Haydon Wick (by 309 votes) Liden, Eldene and Park S (by 646 votes) Lydiard and Freshbrook (by 414 votes) Penhill and Upper Stratton (by 228 votes) Priory Vale (by 80 votes) Rodbourne Cheney (by 550 votes) Shaw (by 274 votes) St Margaret and S Marston (by 32 votes) Close holds: Covingham and Dorcan (Con hold by 106 votes over Lab) St Andrews (Con hold by 152 votes over Lab) Wroughton and Wichelstowe (LD 68 votes away from a Con seat in a double election)
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Post by maxque on May 13, 2024 20:21:06 GMT
Heald Green is a hold for the ratepayers. Remarkably, the Lib Dems polled over 1100 here. And that's a wrap, remains NOC Lib Dems short 1. 31 Lib Dem 22 Lab 3 Green 3 Ratepayers 3 Edgeley Community 1 Independent democracy.stockport.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=64&RPID=66413806Third: LD 11 (+2), Lab 7 (-2), Grn 1, Ind (Heald Green) 1, ECA 1 %, according to the council: LD 34.2%, Lab 31.7%, Con 16.7%, Grn 10.9% Liberal Democrat gain over Labour in: Cheadle E and Cheadle Hulme N (by 184 votes) Offerton (by 25 votes) Close ward: Bramhall S and Woodford (LD hold by 81 votes over Con)
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Post by maxque on May 13, 2024 19:38:44 GMT
Woodfield broke 2 Lab 1 Con - looks like one Labour seat as won on drawing of lots. SO that's just 1 Conservative seat here - 32 Lab 6 LD Labour have never won in Woodfield before Lab +8, Con -8 Almond Hill: 3 Lab Bandley Hill and Poplar: 3 Lab (Con 169/193 votes away from seats) Bedwell: 3 Lab Chells: 3 LD (Lab 189 votes away from a seat) Longmeadow: 3 Lab (by 3/92/132 votes over Con; Grn 102 votes away from a seat) Manor: 3 LD Martins Wood: 3 Lab Old Town: 3 Lab (Con 138/161 votes from a seat) Roebuck: 3 Lab Shephall: 3 Lab St Nicholas: 3 Lab Symonds Green: 3 Lab (Con 127 votes away from a seat) Woodfield: 2 Lab, 1 Con ( Con 624, Lab 602/571, Con 571/559, Lab 520; on lots)
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Post by maxque on May 13, 2024 19:08:31 GMT
Third: LD 15 (-2), Con 1, Lab 1 (+1), Grn 1 (+1) Council: LD 47 (-1), Con 3 (-1), Grn 3, Lab 2 (+2), Ind 1 Labour gains over Conservative and Liberal Democrat in: London Colney (double election; by 197/402 votes over LD; by 221/567 votes over Con) Green gain over Liberal Democrat in: St Peters (confirms by-election gain; by 160 votes) Close wards: Batchwood (Grn 42 votes away from a seat in a double election) Clarence (LD hold by 136 votes over Grn) Harpenden S (Con hold by 58 votes over LD) St Stephen (LD hold by 200 votes over Con)
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Post by maxque on May 13, 2024 18:04:17 GMT
Third: Labour gain from Conservative in: Blenheim Park (by 412 votes) St Laurence (by 374 votes) St Luke's (by 377 votes)
Liberal Democrat from Conservative in: Eastwood Park (by 657 votes)
Green gain over Liberal Democrat in: Leigh (by 1088 votes)
Close holds: Chalkwell (Con hold by 107 votes over Lab) Prittlewell (Con hold by 61 votes over Lab) Shoeburyness (Con hold by 8 votes over Lab, by 114 votes over Ind) Thorpe (Ind hold by 131 votes over Con) W Leigh (Con hold by 191 votes over LD)
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Post by maxque on May 13, 2024 14:19:27 GMT
Lab 33 Con 13 Lib Dem 3 Ind 10 The two ex-RDP Independents both held their seats, Bennett-Sylvester brought along a running mate in Dalton & Thrybergh. The two outgoing Labour councillors in Wales both held as Independents and one from Boston Castle did as well and that ward elected another one as well (I think that ward’s results may be somewhat Gaza related; readers may be disappointed that Phil Potholes did not win.) Then new Independents won in Keppel and Sitwell On 2021, that's Lab +1, Con -7, Ind +6. Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: Anston and Woodsetts (3 Con -> 1 Con, 1 LD, 1 Ind (through by-election and defection) -> 2 Con, 1 LD; confirms by-election; Con 1325, LD 1227, Con 1217/1142, LD 1023, Lab 745, LD 743, Lab 712/681) Labour gain over Conservative in: Aston and Todwick: (2 Con -> 1 Con, 1 Lab; Con 1234, Lab 1090, Con 990, Lab 809) Bramley and Ravenfield (2 Con -> 1 Con, 1 Lab; Con 910, Lab 875, Con 844, Lab 703 Dinnington (3 Con -> 2 Con, 1 Lab; Con 1397/1252, Lab 1196/1131, Con 1120, Lab 1009 Hoober (2 Lab, 1 Con -> 3 Lab; by 630 votes) Maltby E (2 Con -> 1 Lab, 1 Con; Lab 796, Con 751, Lab 698, Con 664) Rawmarsh W (1 Lab, 1 Con -> 2 Lab; by 419 votes) Independent gain over Labour in: 2x Boston Castle (3 Lab -> 2 Lab, 1 Ind (through defection) -> 2 Ind, 1 Lab; Ind 1389/1166, Lab 1126/986/729) Dalton and Thrybergh (1 Ind, 1 Lab -> 2 Ind; by 101 votes) Sitwell (2 Con, 1 Lab -> 2 Con, 1 Ind; Con 1357/1186, Ind 1145, Con 1023, Lab 1019/971/765) 2x Wales (2 Lab -> 2 Ind (through defection; by 202/637 votes over Con; by 440/787 votes over Lab) Conservative gain over Labour in: Hellaby and Maltby W (1 Con, 1 Lab -> 2 Con; by 48 votes) Independent gain over Rotherham Democratic Party in: Keppel (2 Lab, 1 RDP -> 3 Lab (through by-election) -> 2 Lab, 1 RDP; Lab 1179/1092, Ind 1068, Lab 892, Ind 634) Labour gain over Liberal Democrats in: Rother Vale (1 LD, 1 Lab -> 2 Lab; by 223 votes) Close holds: Aughton and Swallownest (Con 143 votes away from a Lab seat) Greasbrough (Lab 108 votes away from an Ind seat)
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Post by maxque on May 12, 2024 22:48:07 GMT
Tobias Ellwood perhaps? just a guess Is Bournemouth E winnable? I would assume not, but wierd things are happening on the south coast.
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Post by maxque on May 12, 2024 17:16:30 GMT
www.sandwell.gov.uk/election-results/local-elections-2024-candidates-standing-wardThird: Lab 22 (+5), Con 1 (-6), Ind 1 (+1) Council: Lab 65 (+6), Con 5 (-3), Ind 2 (-3) Labour gain over Conservative in: Charlemont with Grove Vale (by 237 votes) Friar Park (by 387 votes) Great Barr with Yew Tree (by 755 votes) Old Warley (by 793 votes) Princes End (confirms defection, by 187 votes) Rowley (by 609 votes over Con, by 815 over Ind defector) Independent gain over Labour in: Tipton Green (by 404 votes)
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Post by maxque on May 12, 2024 14:45:10 GMT
www.salford.gov.uk/your-council/elections-and-voting/election-results/Third: Lab 27, Con 2 (-1), LD 1 (+1) Council: Lab 50 (+1), Con 7 (-1), LD 2 (+1), Ind 1 (-1) Liberal Democrat from Labour in: Quays (by 38 votes) Labour gain from Conservative in: Worsley and Westwood Park (by 355 votes) There was also a Labour double election gain over Liberal Democrats (sitting as Independent) on the 2026 cycle in Ordsall (by 736 votes over Grn, by 792 votes over LD)
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Post by maxque on May 12, 2024 14:11:49 GMT
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 18:12:49 GMT
democracy.runnymede.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=5&RPID=23965234Third: Lab 4 (+4), LD 3 (+2), Con 2 (-7), RIRG 2, Grn 1 (+1), Ind 1 Council: Con 13, Lab 8, LD 6, RIRG 6, Ind 5, Grn 3 %, according to council: Con 36%, Lab 22%, LD 20%, RIRG 7%, Grn 7%, Ind 6% Green gain over Conservative in: Addlestone N (by 175 votes) Labour gain over Conservative in: Chertsey Riverside (by 115 votes) Chertsey St Ann's (by 174 votes) Egham Hythe (by 223 votes) Englefield Green W (by 38 votes over Con, by 48 votes over Ind) Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: New Haw (by 876 votes) Virginal Water (by 109 votes) Close holds: Addlestone S (Con hold by 9 votes over Lab)
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 17:33:07 GMT
there have not been any by-elections outside Durham (which was in early march, and despite being O’Toole’s former riding, had a large swing) since June 2023. I included also regional & local byElections. But these mirror the national trend only to some extent, of course. As the parties are not linked, it's irrelevent and useless
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 17:27:00 GMT
The first thing I notice from that ap is that the Labour victory in the PCC election in Norfolk depended entirely on a Labour margin of victory of 11k in Norwich, which was enough to overwhelm the small Conservative margins of a few hundred, or a few thousand, in each of the other districts. The second thing I noticed is that at the macro level, the general pattern and extent of red blobbiness looks similar to the 1997 general election. If it is a predictor of the 2024 general election result, it rather dampens down the hysterical and unscientific projections which some more excitable people in the media like to make of saying that the Labour Party is going to win 500 seatsnwith only 50 for the Conservatives (or whatever) So, the next general election will have a turnout under 20%?
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 14:48:29 GMT
Third: Con 6 (-3), Lab 5 (+3), LD 3 Council: Con 17 (-3), Lab 15 (+3), LD 10 Labour gain over Conservative in: Admirals and Cawston (by 475 votes) Coton and Boughton (by 332 votes) Newbold and Brownsover (by 287 votes) Close holds: Bilton (Con hold by 134 votes over LD) Clifton, Newton and Churchover (Con hold by 26 votes over Lab) Dunsmore (Con hold by 40 votes over LD) Eastlands (LD hold by 111 votes over Lab) Hillmorton (Con hold by 42 votes over Lab) Wolston and the Lawfords (Con hold by 88 votes over Lab) The Conservatives got quite lucky here, I think.
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Post by maxque on May 10, 2024 22:49:22 GMT
Rates on 1 reservoir were worth more in £ than all the rates from businesses and households in the rest of the county put together? In 1971, the total population of Radnorshire was smaller than the electorate of 18 of the 40-odd wards in Birmingham. A huge dam and associated works with a large rateable value would easily pay more rates in value than the households and small businesses of the small and sparsely populated county and you can be sure that RCC would have screwed up the rateable value as high as possible and because of the difference in size, BCC wouldn't even have blinked. It was split in 3 urban districts and 5 rural districts! Some of them must have been ridiculously small.
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