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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:27:36 GMT
Swindon
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Post by swindonlad on Aug 9, 2023 19:31:01 GMT
Current balance is 32 Labour 23 Conservative 1 Liberal Democrat 1 Independent (elected as a Conservative)
Those up for election in 2024 14 Conservative 5 Labour
There are 10 wards where the Tories are defending and Labour won in 2023. Of these St Margaret & South Marston the Conservatives won a byelection subsequently.
The Liberal Democrats won in Wroughton & Wichelstowe from the Conservatives in 2023.
1 ward Ridgeway, single member, wasn't contested in 2023 and Chiseldon & Lawn, which has 2 members, isn't contested in 2024.
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Post by swindonlad on Aug 13, 2023 8:33:24 GMT
The 2024 election could cause a meltdown for the Tories as 14 of their 23 councillors are up for election.
Of these 10 were wards that Labour won in 2023, this includes St Margaret & South Marston, & 1 that the Lib Dems won.
It is not unrealistic to see the Conservative group reduced to nearly half of the size they are now and Labour having a majority comparable with the pre 2000 all out elections.
As there's no elections in 2025 I can't see anything but a 5th & 6th year of Labour control of the council, which compares with 19 years of Conservative rule and 4 years of no overall control.
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Post by swindonlad on Aug 19, 2023 8:38:09 GMT
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 16:12:07 GMT
www.swindon.gov.uk/downloads/file/10614/borough_statement_of_persons_nominatedCon, Lab, LD - 20 Green - 10 - Missing: Central, Covingham & Dorcan, Haydon Wick, "Liden, Eldene & Park South", Lydiard & Freshbrook, Mannington & Western, Penhill & Upper Stratton, Ridgeway, Shaw, (1/2): Wroughton & Wichelstowe TUSC - 5 - Central, Covingham & Dorcan, Gorse Hill & Pinehurst, Lydiard & Freshbrook, Old Town Reform UK - 1 - "Liden, Eldene & Park South" No Description - 1 - Central
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Post by swindonlad on Apr 18, 2024 6:38:16 GMT
Would normally do a prediction now, at least this year it will be easier as Labour continues to take more control over the council.
Labour are defending 5 wards, can't see anything than 5 holds.
Tories are defending 14 wards, 10 of these are split wards with Labour & I really wouldn't be surprised if all 10 were Labour gains.
This leaves 4 wards:
Blunsdon and Highworth, Con hold last year. Should hold on here, to lose this would be a total disaster. Highworth has had Labour councillors in past, before it merged with Blunsdon, but the more rural area there may keep it Tory.
Covingham and Dorcan, also a Con hold last year, no obvious reason why this ward should have bucked the trend. This year it's Barbara Parry up, her, and her husband, have a personal vote. This is the Tories best bet to win a ward in urban Swindon, but it could go either way.
These next 2 wards are now in East Wiltshire, which is why there's a lot less Labour activity as they are targeting Swindon North & Swindon South
Ridgeway, the single member ward with the Conservative group leader. This ward is villages to the east of Swindon, so should be Tory, but the Lib Dems are putting some effort in. In a good election for the Lib Dems they will gain this.
Wroughton and Wichelstowe. 2 seats are up after a Tory resigned in March, the Conservative up for election, Brian Ford, is standing down. He is a very long serving councillor who survived during the lows of the late 90s for the Tories. Last year the Lib Dems gained the ward by 20 votes, and are targeting it again. If Brian had stood, it would be 1 Con hold, 1 too close to call, it's now 2 too close to call. I can see the Lib Dems gaining at least 1 seat, probably in Wroughton.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 18, 2024 9:13:27 GMT
Swindon got a fair amount of central resource from Labour in 2023 because it was a top target, which will not be repeated this time round as we only need to win 3 seats to hold our majority. We narrowly lost a by-election in St Margaret & South Marston in July and there were several wards where the majority was less than 300 votes, so it wouldn't be a massive shock if we failed to gain some of those 10.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 9:23:16 GMT
Labour gain Central (split ward) very easily
Con hold Covingham & Dorcan (Con 1469 Lab 1363)
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 9:27:51 GMT
Con hold Blunsdon & Highworth Con 1399 Lab 1191
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 9:45:45 GMT
Lab gain Haydon Wick Lab 1359 Con 1050
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:14:31 GMT
2 Con holds in Wroughton & Wichelstowe
Con 1026 Con 884 LD 816 LD 643 Lab 417 Green 405 Lab 332
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:25:38 GMT
Lab gain Rodbourne Cheney Lab gain Priory Vale
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:43:41 GMT
Con hold St Andrews Con 1692 Lab 1490
Lab gain Shaw
Lab gain St Margaret & South Marston.
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