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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:37:22 GMT
Stockport
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Post by carolus on Feb 20, 2024 14:07:30 GMT
Current councils: 29 LD, 24 Lab, 3 Edgeley Community Association, 3 Heald Green Ratepayers, 3 Green, 1 Ind Up in 2024: 9 Lab, 9 LD, 1 ECA,1 HGR, 1 Green
The Ind in Marple South & High Lane (2026) was elected as Liberal Democrat.
Split wards (2023 result given): Bredbury & Woodley - 2 Lab, 1 LD. Lab defence. L 1639*/1479*/1238, LD 1598*/1390/1388, C 515/480/424, G 312, Ind 243 Cheadle East & Cheadle Hulme North - 2 Lab, 1 LD. Lab defence. Lab 2041*/1666*/1586, LD 1846*/1575/1408, C449/381/368, G 377 Offerton - 2 Lab, 1 LD. Lab defence. LD 1664*/1421/1182, L 1479*/1431*/1338, C 486/391/270, G 377, RefUK 178
Close wards (2023 result given): Bramhall North - LD 2210*/2149*/1728*, C 1634/1625/1503, G 468, L 420/311/252 Bramhall South & Woodford - LD 2342*/2228*/2188*, C 2025/1828/1789, G 437, L 254/230/207 Edgeley - ECA 1714*/1487*/1461*, L 1183/1166/1083, G 204, LD 187/155/124, C 106 Manor - L 1328*/1280*/1152*, LD 1103/1047/1021, G 270, C 233, Ind 213/173/142, RefUK 130 Norbury & Woodsmoor - LD 1944*/1936*/1667*, C 1581/1273/1270, L 820/789/736, G 373, RefUK 113
2023 Candidate totals (x3): 63 Lab, 63 LD, 47 Con, 23 Green, 4 Reform UK, 3 ECA, 3 HGR, 2 Stockport Fights Austerity No to Cuts, 2 WEP, 5 Ind
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Post by willlucky on Apr 5, 2024 16:31:24 GMT
Alright, as per previous years just a list of agents and candiates but no parties til next week one presumes. So I've taken a crack at it based on last year and personal knowledge.
Conservative: 21 Labour: 21 Liberal: 21 Green: 21 Reform: 4 (Davenport, Manor, Norbury, Offerton) Heald Green Ratepayer: 1 Edgeley Community: 1 Independents: 3 (Davenport, Marple North, Reddish North) (Reddish North was WEP preiously.)
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,330
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 15:05:28 GMT
Alright, as per previous years just a list of agents and candiates but no parties til next week one presumes. So I've taken a crack at it based on last year and personal knowledge. Conservative: 21 Labour: 21 Liberal: 21 Green: 21 Reform: 4 (Davenport, Manor, Norbury, Offerton) Heald Green Ratepayer: 1 Edgeley Community: 1 Independents: 3 (Davenport, Marple North, Reddish North) (Reddish North was WEP preiously.) A minute or so after the deadline, here's the SOPN: assets.ctfassets.net/ii3xdrqc6nfw/6jkzppxKME2bHuWdW35KQZ/cad37c94d0d878d73afae599b9572703/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_2024.pdfThe numbers above are correct with the exception that the identified Independents in Davenport & Cale Green and Reddish North are both standing for the WEP (well, in D&CG it's 'Party Of Women' but I assume that's the same thing). The Heald Green Ratepayer stands with No Description.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 8, 2024 15:09:33 GMT
The Women's Equality Party and the Party of Women are very much not the same thing.
The former is the middle class group founded by Catherine Mayer and Sandi Toksvig and emphasising pay disparities and employment issues.
The latter is the anti-trans group founded by Kellie-Jay Keen. Note that the WEP is broadly trans-inclusive.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 9, 2024 8:05:28 GMT
Alright, as per previous years just a list of agents and candiates but no parties til next week one presumes. So I've taken a crack at it based on last year and personal knowledge. Conservative: 21 Labour: 21 Liberal: 21 Green: 21 Reform: 4 (Davenport, Manor, Norbury, Offerton) Heald Green Ratepayer: 1 Edgeley Community: 1 Independents: 3 (Davenport, Marple North, Reddish North) (Reddish North was WEP preiously.) A minute or so after the deadline, here's the SOPN: assets.ctfassets.net/ii3xdrqc6nfw/6jkzppxKME2bHuWdW35KQZ/cad37c94d0d878d73afae599b9572703/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_2024.pdfThe numbers above are correct with the exception that the identified Independents in Davenport & Cale Green and Reddish North are both standing for the WEP (well, in D&CG it's 'Party Of Women' but I assume that's the same thing). The Heald Green Ratepayer stands with No Description. The Ratepayer did the same last time and we all thought it was a mistake. Clearly it's deliberate.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 19, 2024 20:44:30 GMT
I am putting together a spreadsheet with the aim of approximating total local election votes across constituencies, for a selection of local authorities. The selection is obviously where the LDs have target seats. For this purpose, I have allocated the following wards to each constituency as follows:
Cheadle: Bramhall North, Bramhall South & Woodford, Cheadle East & Cheadle Hulme North, Cheadle Hulme South, Cheadle West & Gatley, Heald Green, Norbury & Woodsmoor
Hazel Grove: Bredbury & Woodbury, Bredbury Green & Romiley, Hazel Grove, Manor, Marple North, Marple South & High Lane, Offerton
Stockport: Brinnington & Stockport Central, Davenport & Cale Green, Edgeley, Heatons North, Heatons South, Reddish North, Reddish South
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Post by willlucky on May 2, 2024 17:07:45 GMT
Seats to watch
Intended to do this a little earlier in the month but my life/work balance hasn't been great so instead a summary for the early morning watchers amongst us. I've calculated majority based on last years 3rd candidate against the 4th from the allouts so this won't be very exact due to the various circumstances. Labour will have a difficult night in actually taking the council because this time around there is so many defence seats for them, next cycle the role will balance out more due to the Liberal Democrats coming second in Bredbury, Offerton and Chealde East. The Lib Dems need to take 3 seats for a majority, Labour need 8. I suspect this will remain NOC, whilst the LD's have the closer path I don't think it will pan out from needing three gains from Labour. We do have a number of close contests. I believe the Mayoral election will give a slight and I do mean very slight coat-tail effect for the Labour Party. Whilst a Liberal Democrat councillor is attempting to take the Mayoralty, he is no Andy Burnham and whilst it might see some local effect in the Hazel Grove ward nothing major.
Bramhall North (LD Def - Majority of 94 over Con)
Bramhall South and Woodford (LD Def - Majority of 163 over Con)
Both were all taken by the Liberals in 2023, if the Conservatives are to break back into the council these two would be where they would do it. North on paper seems the better prospect and former councillor Linda Holt is attempting to retake,
Bredbury & Woodley (Lab Defence - Majority of 89 over LD)
Not a lot in it, I think Labour will hold,
Cheadle East & Cheadle Hulme North (Lab defence - Majority of 91 over LD)
Not a lot either, Mellor will have been working to hold I suspect for the 26 election to take the other seat.
Edgeley (Community Association defence - Majority of 278 over Lab)
Now, I've heard mixed things that this time the ECA hasn't been as vigorous, but I've not been able to visit it myself unfortunately. I suspect a Lab gain here, but no surprise if it's a hold.
Manor (Lab Defence - Majority of 49 over LD)
Manor is moving to the Hazel Grove ward, so the Liberals would be wise to work it. Oddly, I think they will take it I think they'll have overworked it and perhaps let the other two not go as planned.
Norbury and Woodsmoor (LD Defence - Majority of 86 over Con)
This is the only seat in Hazel Grove I can see the Conservatives attempting to retake, Olly Johnson is standing - unknown what resource he has to be honest. I did recieve a Maccelsfield Conservative Leaflet though at dawn - I suspect this will be a LD hold.
Offerton (Lab Defence - Majority 10 over LD)
The one seat that seems to flip sides. I suspect a Lab hold.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,585
Member is Online
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Post by ricmk on May 2, 2024 18:00:41 GMT
Interesting - my parents are voting in Bramhall North. They don't think the LD incumbent is a world-changer but tell me their campaign is streets ahead of anyone else. Following this one closely.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,330
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Post by iain on May 3, 2024 2:28:26 GMT
Labour hold in Bredbury & Woodley
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:39:33 GMT
Stockport results starting to fly in. Two battleground seats are Bredbury and Woodley which is a Lab hold, and Edgeley which is a ECA hold.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:45:37 GMT
Bramhall North is a Lib Dem Hold, majority of almost 500.
Edgeley was 900 majority for the ECA
Bredbury was almost 500.
Manor is a Lab hold also, majority of about 700.
Well...they aint battleground seats anymore. Could be a night of no changes at all at this rate.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:51:20 GMT
Reddish North is a Lab hold.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:53:10 GMT
Cheadle East and Cheadle Hulme North is a Lib Dem gain from Labour. Majority of 184.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:55:31 GMT
Heatons South is a Lab hold.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:57:36 GMT
Bredbury Green and Romiley is a Lib Dem hold.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 2:58:54 GMT
Marple South is a Lib Dem hold.
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 3:00:49 GMT
Norbury and Woodsmoor is a Lib Dem hold with a majority of 506.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 3:01:46 GMT
Marple South is a Lib Dem hold. In terms of the council numbers that is a gain from Ind so I think they just need to gain Offerton for a majority (assuming they don't lose any of the seats they currently hold)
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Post by willlucky on May 3, 2024 3:02:37 GMT
Cheadle West and Gatley is a Lib Dem hold.
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