The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 10:27:17 GMT
It is, to a significant degree, a generational issue in the same way that Brexit is. And polls have been clear about the downward trend in popular support over time - back in the 1980s figures of 70-75% for supporting restoring the death penalty were often recorded, and used by Tory MPs to argue for its return.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 10:15:15 GMT
Managed to spell the LOTO's name wrong as well
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 10:12:00 GMT
Later became Baroness Jeger, and was a semi-regular of the Guardian letters pages in the 1980s.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 10:09:53 GMT
Widely known as Alan Lee Williams, partly to distinguish him from the Swansea MP Alan Williams (who later became Father Of The House)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 8:55:56 GMT
Indeed, but a successful party (eg New Labour in its hegemonic period) uses that in a positive sense to win support from both sides.
When a party is unpopular, it works more to repel both wings - as indeed is happening with the Tories now.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 8:52:45 GMT
Isn't India named ultimately after the river Indus, which is mostly no longer in India? Indeed, that is a key reason why Hindu "nationalist" types prefer Bharat.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 8:48:51 GMT
Seems somewhat notable that we haven't seen any defections or expulsions in recent months for supporting Driscoll. Makes me suspect that his claims about the support he is receiving may be somewhat inflated. At the start of the campaign I was very dismissive of Driscoll's chances. I was wrong to be dismissive: as time has gone on, sympathy and support have revealed themselves and he is receiving votes from places you would have thought most unlikely back when he announced he would stand as an independent.He'll win or narrowly lose in my opinion. Kim McGuinness is not a very good candidate and, whatever Driscoll may or may not have accomplished, she is not exactly in a place to hit hard on that. If she does win, it will be thanks to party loyalty and little more. This translates as "he is getting lots of Tories to support him" - for totally non-cynical reasons obviously And anyway, I thought getting the support of Tories was maybe the number one sin in the online Corbynite canon?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2024 8:44:58 GMT
Conversations like the above are amusing to most non-Tories (I mean that in the broader sense, rather than current allegiance) who see this government as incredibly right wing. Indeed, just today we have a widely trailed announcement that they are going to target people on disability benefits. What is "centrist" about that?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:51:13 GMT
I have the horrible suspicion that this actually appeals to a significant, even if minority, section of the US public
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:46:34 GMT
Tell us you never read the thread before posting, without telling us you never read the thread before posting
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:38:02 GMT
Is not standing for Labour here.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:36:41 GMT
If those are the ballpark likely figures, it must be at least possible that a really disastrous night for the Tories could see them pushed into third?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:33:27 GMT
But these things sometimes happen, and if Labour *are* unimpressive locally they are even more likely to start dropping several seats from 2026 onwards.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:30:55 GMT
I will be very pleased for Claire if she wins
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:29:25 GMT
I don't see his appeal and never have really - in his original stint as Northumberland mayor he was widely seen as not terribly impressive.
But a "martyr" persona can be quite appealing in the right circumstances - as we have seen before.
If he does win we can fairly safely put it down to Labour's "briefcase" tendency overreaching itself.
(especially since McGuinness would almost certainly have been selected anyway)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 10:21:06 GMT
especially with the Lib Dems at only 1%. If that were true some of that would go on the Labour total And the Gaza protest candidate is also on a relatively modest 3%.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 8:59:49 GMT
Though tbh I am wondering why they wasted a poll on this, when they could have done Tees Valley instead.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 28, 2024 8:57:59 GMT
Previous polls had the Lib Dems on 7% or similar. There are two possibilities. Either 6 out of 7 voters have switched to back Street or Parker, or this poll is wide of the mark. It is possible that the earlier polls showing street losing has changed people's VI. This is worth thinking about. Does polling change VI as much as it measures it? But support for Street here is about the same as in some previous polls - its Labour that is lower (and, perhaps, implausibly low)
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:49:55 GMT
This is a mayoral poll, so was already posted (and discussed) in the relevant thread/section.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:44:30 GMT
This one going Tory in the 1980s is surely notable, meaning a Tory win here last time wouldn't really have been as "unprecedented" as in some other places.
|
|