The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2023 12:02:35 GMT
Don't you think Abbott would prefer to get an MPs pay until whenever the GE actually is?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2023 11:42:25 GMT
This must be a contender for the seat that has swung most to the Tories since 1997.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2023 11:32:12 GMT
I've heard some admittedly anecdotal accounts of English people who have moved to Scotland being "surprisingly" pro-SNP and independence.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2023 11:27:30 GMT
We have possibly had peak ULEZ already, and it is an open question how much council unpopularity (and it is Tory run now anyway) carries over into a GE.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2023 11:23:40 GMT
That was a while ago, you mean he has been suspended since then?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:45:09 GMT
Anyway....isn't there some concrete evidence regarding this in the last US presidential election?
It is well known that the GOP did quite a lot of "on the ground" campaigning, especially in swing states, whereas the Dems - due to Covid - did much less of it. And this is widely accepted as one significant factor in Trump's "surprisingly" strong showing in said areas, despite easily losing the national popular vote.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:33:09 GMT
I don't think the LDs are disappointed. This is a pretty decent result for them in a ward where they didn't figure before. Given that they control the council it's somewhat better still. But given that the circumstances of the by-election were not good for Labour I think we will be pretty satisfied by this result, too. That the byelection happened at all is arguably more the council's fault than Labour's - which is one reason to be pleased with the result.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:16:47 GMT
As for Newport Pagnell, it can both be true that Labour were hoping for even better and that this is still a quite encouraging result for them. In a byelection situation, it was always likely that the local LibDem electoral machine that has been sustained over several years would prevail.
Speaking of which, that Colchester result is quite anaemic for them despite being a gain.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:11:35 GMT
Labour swept all the Clay Cross seats on NE Derbyshire district in May (when they also re-took control of the council from the Tories, despite the well known long term trends there) so unless you think there has been major "realignment" in the last few months, maybe this result has other causes?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:01:32 GMT
Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... Also a very handy advance for us. Id guess we didn't prioritize it before, but now it's definitely in play between us and Labour. You don't normally bother campaigning there in "regular" elections, will you do so next year when you will have plenty of other wards to prioritise?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2023 12:55:47 GMT
Well, apart from anything else they weren't in government then!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2023 12:45:59 GMT
Yes, any seat that falls vacant as late as next May is almost certainly going to be left alone until a GE that realistically is going to happen by late 2024. Why? Why can't Sunak delay it until the last possible moment - January 2025? Practically speaking, dragging it out through Christmas is a non starter and the public annoyance could well cost the Tories even more seats - and it is plausible to assume their situation would be desperate if they even thought of holding on that long. There's a reason why Johnson did what he did four years ago. As for the other point, Bradley *could* remain an MP until the GE if he wins - but the above is clearly an attempt to head off the blatantly obvious "three jobs Ben" jibes.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2023 12:40:20 GMT
Yes, any seat that falls vacant as late as next May is almost certainly going to be left alone until a GE that realistically is going to happen by late 2024.
Though if it is called *for* May (or maybe even slightly earlier) that would leave Bradley with a bit more of a dilemma.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 21, 2023 12:30:07 GMT
Well at least those figures are a bit more realistic overall, even given the above caveat.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2023 10:46:34 GMT
Hypothetical polling (yes, I know) has indicated such a new party could take non-negligible support from the current AfD surge in particular.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2023 10:42:48 GMT
There is a crucial difference between Kentucky and Mississippi which really should be obvious to anybody with basic knowledge of US politics. Trump won Mississippi by 17 and Kentucky by nearly 30? Presumably the reference is to Mississippi being probably the most racially polarised state in the US voting wise?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2023 10:36:43 GMT
Makes wheeling him out for the cameras during the most recent GE night look even crasser than it did at the time. Elder abuse, pure and simple.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2023 10:28:44 GMT
I would love to hear the BBC News one day say that such-and-such an MP is resigning "because of a strop" I always thought it odd that Stephen Phillips stropped off as the reason for his resignation never made sense - backed leave but Brexit was too tough. Which made me think that there were other more discreet reasons which would not want to be made public for his resignation. Actually, it makes perfect sense even if you don't agree with it. Though yes, there may have been a bit more to his resignation than that.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 20, 2023 10:22:44 GMT
Yes, but if you poll quite infrequently there are more likely to be significant jumps between each poll. Less excuse for those who do weekly surveys and the like.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 19, 2023 13:13:24 GMT
Applying an egregious 1990s EU Parliament result, we get: Mid Bedfordshire CON 33 -26 LAB 32 +10 LD 26 +13 IND 6 OTH 3 Eastleigh’s 1994 by-election swing gives a Conservative hold. The Tory Party could end up with a similar majority to Uxbridge here and in Tamworth, much to Labour’s chagrin. Not far off the poll that has it 34-34. Mid Beds is a toss-up. If the Tories can hold Mid Beds and Tamworth after keeping Uxbridge, then are we really heading for a repeat of 1997? Well you keep banging on about how the 2019 result means the Tories "should" hold Tamworth anyway - and Mid Beds had a Tory majority of 7k even in 1997. Anyway you are getting rather ahead of yourself here aren't you.....
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