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Post by John Chanin on Apr 6, 2020 14:22:38 GMT
Chingford forms the northern part of the borough of Waltham Forest and is quite distinct from the area to the south of the North Circular Road. Situated to the east of the reservoirs in the Lea Valley, this is solidly middle-class suburbia for the most part, with street after street of sizeable semi-detached houses built in the inter-war years (and quite a few post-war). There is a little variation. On the east is the large Friday Hill council estate, now run by a Tenant Management Organization. In the south-west corner is a large former GLC estate, Chingford Hall. The area is two-thirds owner-occupied throughout, and more than two-thirds white, contrasting sharply with the borough to the south. To the north of Chingford is an extensive area of Epping Forest, including the Scout camp at Gilwell Park. The forest extends into this constituency where its most famous landmark, the Queen Elizabeth Hunting Lodge is situated. The next most well-known landmark was Walthamstow dog track, but this has closed and has been redeveloped into a large number of homes. In 1997 Chapel End ward, south of the north circular road was moved into the undersized Walthamstow seat, and replaced by the two Woodford Green wards from Redbridge, from the abolished Wanstead & Woodford seat. This was the most Conservative part of that borough, and is very similar to Chingford, both socially and in built form. At the last council elections this was one of the few parts of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Socially this seat is changing rapidly, like neighbouring Ilford, as large numbers of asian households are buying homes in Woodford, and black households are moving north into Chingford. This has been accompanied by the political changes that have seen London’s well-educated younger middle classes moving towards Labour. What was a very safe Conservative seat as recently as 2010 has now become highly marginal, and Labour have started to win seats at local level too. The MP here since 1992, in succession to the equally well-known Norman Tebbitt, is Iain Duncan-Smith, former Conservative leader, and senior cabinet member. The Boundary Commission has decided to preserve the existing pattern of seats, which cross the borough boundary twice, in this case much to the relief of the Conservatives. The undersized seat has been adjusted to new ward boundaries, and has gained the Bridge ward of Woodford from Ilford North, which straddles the river Roding. This is one of just three wards in Redbridge which still elect Conservative councillors, but even here the local election in 2022 was effectively a dead heat. The quite significant change is therefore likely to have only a minimal effect on the political balance of the seat. Census data: owner-occupied 70% (228/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (301st), social rented 15% (290th). :White 74%, Black 9%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 5%, Other 5% : Managerial & professional 42% (127th), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (504th) : Degree 29% (189th), Minimal qualifications 36% (318th) : Students 4.5% (186th), Over 65: 16% (352nd)
| 2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Conservative | 22,743 | 52.8% | 20,999 | 47.9% | 23,076 | 49.1% | 23,481 | 48.5% | Labour | 9,780 | 22.7% | 12,613 | 28.8% | 20,638 | 43.9% | 22,219 | 45.9% | Liberal Democrat | 7,242 | 16.8% | 2,400 | 5.5% | 2,043 | 4.4% | 2,744 | 5.7% | UKIP | 1,133 | 2.6% | 5,644 | 12.9% | | | |
| Green | 650 | 1.5% | 1,854 | 4.2% | 1,204 | 2.6% | |
| Others | 1,558 | 3.6% | 294 | 0.7% | | | |
| Majority | 12,963 | 30.1% | 8,386 | 19.1% | 2,438 | 5.2% | 1,262 | 2.6% |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 15:02:59 GMT
The census figures for this seat in 2021 will be very interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 15:11:03 GMT
The census figures for this seat in 2021 will be very interesting. It's a ripe plum awaiting a gust of wind from the right direction to fall into Labour's lap, as Redbridge Council was a few years ago. Iain Duncan Smith's retirement will probably do it, if nothing else does. |
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Post by BossMan on Apr 6, 2020 16:25:50 GMT
I gave IDS a brief mention in my Bradford West profile yesterday. It's almost as though he stopped off around these parts on his way from Edinburgh to Chingford.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Apr 8, 2020 10:19:41 GMT
The demographic change in this seat is a bit more varied than suggested by the write-up - there are certainly a lot of Asians moving into Woodford Green/East Chingford, but the areas to the west and south of the constituency are more influenced by Edmonton and Walthamstow respectively - areas where there are more blacks than Asians. Also, there are signs that Highams Park in particular is attracting a fair number of the Guardian-reading set. North Chingford by contrast has seen much less change and continues to resemble areas to the north such as Loughton.
From what I know of the seat, IDS does not have a particularly large personal vote - this seat is by no means a Labour dead cert next time. The local Conservatives are also quite well organised, unlike in Redbridge next door - the sudden collapse of the Redbridge Tories was just as much due to incompetence than demographics.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 10:37:08 GMT
The demographic change in this seat is a bit more varied than suggested by the write-up - there are certainly a lot of Asians moving into Woodford Green/East Chingford, but the areas to the west and south of the constituency are more influenced by Edmonton and Walthamstow respectively - areas where there are more blacks than Asians. Also, there are signs that Highams Park in particular is attracting a fair number of the Guardian-reading set. North Chingford by contrast has seen much less change and continues to resemble areas to the north such as Loughton. From what I know of the seat, IDS does not have a particularly large personal vote - this seat is by no means a Labour dead cert next time. The local Conservatives are also quite well organised, unlike in Redbridge next door - the sudden collapse of the Redbridge Tories was just as much due to incompetence than demographics. Highams Park - like other areas of Walthamstow, Leytonstone and Leyton - has become more attractive to middle class people who have been priced out of other areas. Compared to them it was slower to take off in popularity because it is not served by the underground, but people now are more willing to take what they can get. It has a nice chunk of Epping Forest to the east, which is a positive attraction. I also don't think IDS is particularly popular on a personal level, though he is (or used to be) given some credit for being active. He also has name recognition due to long service and his past high profile. As for Redbridge, I think the Conservatives were ultimately doomed by demographic change, which has been relentless and rapid, but - as you say - were partly the authors of their own downfall, being organisationally weak and racked by division. I have been a resident of the borough for most of the time since 2002, and they actually hung on for one election cycle longer than I thought they would. However, when the collapse came it was sudden, complete and final*.* Addendum |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Apr 20, 2020 10:24:09 GMT
At the last council elections this was the only part of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Really? I must have imagined the results in Fairlop and Bridge wards then. |
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 12:18:22 GMT
At the last council elections this was the only part of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Really? I must have imagined the results in Fairlop and Bridge wards then. Yes I meant to say in the constituency, where once every ward was Conservative. Will amend. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Apr 24, 2020 5:13:04 GMT
The old Chingford seat of Norman Tebbit would almost certainly have gone Labour in 2017 and 2019 as it included Chapel End. The forthcoming boundary changes are unlikely to be positive for the Conservatives especially if it includes a Walthamstow ward or is no longer a cross-borough seat. Some of the Redbridge wards had already been impacted by ward boundary changes which will come into effect at the next election. when parliamentary boundaries are realigned.
It is very much a seat where the Conservatives are on their last legs. On the Chingford side they only really only have two safe Conservative wards on the current ward boundaries with wards like Larkswood and Hatch Lane becoming increasingly marginal.. I would be very surprised if Iain Duncan-Smith stood again.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 24, 2020 8:18:56 GMT
It is very much a seat where the Conservatives are on their last legs. On the Chingford side they only really only have two safe Conservative wards on the current ward boundaries with wards like Larkswood and Hatch Lane becoming increasingly marginal.. I would be very surprised if Iain Duncan-Smith stood again. I do hope he doesn't unexpectedly lose his job, as he might be forced to claim Universal Credit, and it's a terribly complicated system for a man of his age to have to navigate. |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 9, 2021 10:48:14 GMT
Chingford seems to be the only seat in London where the rapid demographic change happened in the 2010s and not 2000s.
Does anybody have a specific reason for it?
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 9, 2021 13:28:40 GMT
Chingford seems to be the only seat in London where the rapid demographic change happened in the 2010s and not 2000s. Does anybody have a specific reason for it?
People didn't want to move to a seat so strongly associated with Tebbit and IDS version 1.0?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2022 9:04:52 GMT
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries | Con | 25972 | 47.8% | | Lab | 24883 | 45.8% | | LD | 3145 | 5.8% | | BxP | 163 | 0.3% | | Grn | 135 | 0.2% | | Oth | 24 | 0.0% | | | | | | Majority | 1089 | 2.0% |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 3, 2022 23:19:38 GMT
2021 Census
Owner occupied 64.8% 312/573
Private rented 19.6% 221/573
Social rented 15.6% 265/573
White 63.6%
Black 10.7%
Asian 14.2%
Managerial & professional 38.0% 148/573
Routine & Semi-routine 16.9% 485/573
Degree level 39.8% 107/573
No qualifications 17.9% 281/573
2011
Owner occupied 69.7% 228/573
Private rented 15.2% 320/573
Social rented 15.1% 290/573
White 74%
Black 9%
Sth Asian 7%
Degree level 29.4% 189/573
No qualifications 21.6% 319/573
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 4, 2022 16:43:09 GMT
2021 CensusWhite 63.6% Black 10.7% Asian 14.2% 2011 from above White 74%, Black 9%, Sth Asian 7% Explains results in 2017 and 2019. 11% drop in the White population. Where did they all go? |
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Post by batman on Dec 4, 2022 17:39:06 GMT
Essex proper, or Broxbourne, or they died?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 13, 2022 12:06:13 GMT
Bridge ward has been added to this seat from the Ilford North constituency. John has updated his original profiles at the beginning of the thread with these details |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 13, 2022 15:16:36 GMT
Although the borough of Waltham Forest is entitled to exactly two seats, the Boundary Commission has decided to preserve the existing pattern of seats, in this case much to the relief of the Conservatives.
What data are you basing this on? Boundary Assistant is showing a total electorate of 167,791 for Waltham Forest, which is too high for two seats.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 13, 2022 16:53:52 GMT
Although the borough of Waltham Forest is entitled to exactly two seats, the Boundary Commission has decided to preserve the existing pattern of seats, in this case much to the relief of the Conservatives.
What data are you basing this on? Boundary Assistant is showing a total electorate of 167,791 for Waltham Forest, which is too high for two seats.
Correct! I think I must have had an inappropriate memory of the zombie review(s), when this was true. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Dec 13, 2022 17:47:46 GMT
What data are you basing this on? Boundary Assistant is showing a total electorate of 167,791 for Waltham Forest, which is too high for two seats.
Correct! I think I must have had an inappropriate memory of the zombie review(s), when this was true.
It probably would've been about the right size for two seats in a 600 seat chamber.
My boundary policy in general would be for any LA that can 'stand alone' and support a whole number of seats to do so as a first priority. Even if it meant a small number of exclavey/non-contiguous seats elsewhere. But I'm in a minority I know.
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