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Post by John Chanin on Apr 6, 2020 14:22:38 GMT
Chingford forms the northern part of the borough of Waltham Forest and is quite distinct from the area to the south of the North Circular Road. Situated to the east of the reservoirs in the Lea Valley, this is solidly middle-class suburbia for the most part, with street after street of sizeable semi-detached houses built in the inter-war years (and quite a few post-war). There is a little variation. On the east is the large Friday Hill council estate, now run by a Tenant Management Organization. In the south-west corner is a large former GLC estate, Chingford Hall. The area is two-thirds owner-occupied throughout, and more than two-thirds white, contrasting sharply with the borough to the south. To the north of Chingford is an extensive area of Epping Forest, including the Scout camp at Gilwell Park. The forest extends into this constituency where its most famous landmark, the Queen Elizabeth Hunting Lodge is situated. The next most well-known landmark was Walthamstow dog track, but this has closed and has been redeveloped into a large number of homes. In 1997 Chapel End ward, south of the north circular road was moved into the undersized Walthamstow seat, and replaced by the two Woodford Green wards from Redbridge, from the abolished Wanstead & Woodford seat. This was the most Conservative part of that borough, and is very similar to Chingford, both socially and in built form. At the last council elections this was one of the few parts of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Socially this seat is changing rapidly, like neighbouring Ilford, as large numbers of asian households are buying homes here. This has been accompanied by the political changes that have seen London’s well-educated younger middle classes moving towards Labour. What was a very safe Conservative seat as recently as 2010 has now become highly marginal, and Labour have started to win seats at local level too. The MP here since 1992, in succession to the equally well-known Norman Tebbitt, is Iain Duncan-Smith, former Conservative leader, and senior cabinet member. Census data: owner-occupied 70% (228/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (301st), social rented 15% (290th). :White 74%, Black 9%, Sth Asian 7%, Mixed 5%, Other 5% : Managerial & professional 42% (127th), Routine & Semi-routine 20% (504th)
| 2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Conservative | 22,743 | 52.8% | 20,999 | 47.9% | 23,076 | 49.1% | 23,481 | 48.5% | Labour | 9,780 | 22.7% | 12,613 | 28.8% | 20,638 | 43.9% | 22,219 | 45.9% | Liberal Democrat | 7,242 | 16.8% | 2,400 | 5.5% | 2,043 | 4.4% | 2,744 | 5.7% | UKIP | 1,133 | 2.6% | 5,644 | 12.9% | | | |
| Green | 650 | 1.5% | 1,854 | 4.2% | 1,204 | 2.6% | |
| Others | 1,558 | 3.6% | 294 | 0.7% | | | |
| Majority | 12,963 | 30.1% | 8,386 | 19.1% | 2,438 | 5.2% | 1,262 | 2.6% |
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Post by conservativeestimate on Apr 6, 2020 15:02:59 GMT
The census figures for this seat in 2021 will be very interesting.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 15:11:03 GMT
The census figures for this seat in 2021 will be very interesting. It's a ripe plum awaiting a gust of wind from the right direction to fall into Labour's lap, as Redbridge Council was a few years ago. Iain Duncan Smith's retirement will probably do it, if nothing else does. |
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Post by Admin Twaddleford on Apr 6, 2020 16:25:50 GMT
I gave IDS a brief mention in my Bradford West profile yesterday. It's almost as though he stopped off around these parts on his way from Edinburgh to Chingford.
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Post by jacoblamsden on Apr 8, 2020 10:19:41 GMT
The demographic change in this seat is a bit more varied than suggested by the write-up - there are certainly a lot of Asians moving into Woodford Green/East Chingford, but the areas to the west and south of the constituency are more influenced by Edmonton and Walthamstow respectively - areas where there are more blacks than Asians. Also, there are signs that Highams Park in particular is attracting a fair number of the Guardian-reading set. North Chingford by contrast has seen much less change and continues to resemble areas to the north such as Loughton.
From what I know of the seat, IDS does not have a particularly large personal vote - this seat is by no means a Labour dead cert next time. The local Conservatives are also quite well organised, unlike in Redbridge next door - the sudden collapse of the Redbridge Tories was just as much due to incompetence than demographics.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 10:37:08 GMT
The demographic change in this seat is a bit more varied than suggested by the write-up - there are certainly a lot of Asians moving into Woodford Green/East Chingford, but the areas to the west and south of the constituency are more influenced by Edmonton and Walthamstow respectively - areas where there are more blacks than Asians. Also, there are signs that Highams Park in particular is attracting a fair number of the Guardian-reading set. North Chingford by contrast has seen much less change and continues to resemble areas to the north such as Loughton. From what I know of the seat, IDS does not have a particularly large personal vote - this seat is by no means a Labour dead cert next time. The local Conservatives are also quite well organised, unlike in Redbridge next door - the sudden collapse of the Redbridge Tories was just as much due to incompetence than demographics. Highams Park - like other areas of Walthamstow, Leytonstone and Leyton - has become more attractive to middle class people who have been priced out of other areas. Compared to them it was slower to take off in popularity because it is not served by the underground, but people now are more willing to take what they can get. It has a nice chunk of Epping Forest to the east, which is a positive attraction. I also don't think IDS is particularly popular on a personal level, though he is (or used to be) given some credit for being active. He also has name recognition due to long service and his past high profile. As for Redbridge, I think the Conservatives were ultimately doomed by demographic change, which has been relentless and rapid, but - as you say - were partly the authors of their own downfall, being organisationally weak and racked by division. I have been a resident of the borough for most of the time since 2002, and they actually hung on for one election cycle longer than I thought they would. However, when the collapse came it was sudden, complete and final*.* Addendum |
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Post by londontory on Apr 20, 2020 10:24:09 GMT
At the last council elections this was the only part of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Really? I must have imagined the results in Fairlop and Bridge wards then. |
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2020 12:18:22 GMT
At the last council elections this was the only part of Redbridge to elect Conservative councillors. Really? I must have imagined the results in Fairlop and Bridge wards then. Yes I meant to say in the constituency, where once every ward was Conservative. Will amend. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Apr 24, 2020 5:13:04 GMT
The old Chingford seat of Norman Tebbit would almost certainly have gone Labour in 2017 and 2019 as it included Chapel End. The forthcoming boundary changes are unlikely to be positive for the Conservatives especially if it includes a Walthamstow ward or is no longer a cross-borough seat. Some of the Redbridge wards had already been impacted by ward boundary changes which will come into effect at the next election. when parliamentary boundaries are realigned.
It is very much a seat where the Conservatives are on their last legs. On the Chingford side they only really only have two safe Conservative wards on the current ward boundaries with wards like Larkswood and Hatch Lane becoming increasingly marginal.. I would be very surprised if Iain Duncan-Smith stood again.
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Post by David Boothroyd on Apr 24, 2020 8:18:56 GMT
It is very much a seat where the Conservatives are on their last legs. On the Chingford side they only really only have two safe Conservative wards on the current ward boundaries with wards like Larkswood and Hatch Lane becoming increasingly marginal.. I would be very surprised if Iain Duncan-Smith stood again. I do hope he doesn't unexpectedly lose his job, as he might be forced to claim Universal Credit, and it's a terribly complicated system for a man of his age to have to navigate. |
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