Chingford & Woodford Green

[John Chanin]

Apr 8, 2020 10:19:41 GMT jacoblamsden said:

The demographic change in this seat is a bit more varied than suggested by the write-up - there are certainly a lot of Asians moving into Woodford Green/East Chingford, but the areas to the west and south of the constituency are more influenced by Edmonton and Walthamstow respectively - areas where there are more blacks than Asians. Also, there are signs that Highams Park in particular is attracting a fair number of the Guardian-reading set. North Chingford by contrast has seen much less change and continues to resemble areas to the north such as Loughton.

I changed the profile as a result of your comments, but it looks like I was right the first time.  The asian population has doubled, while the black population has increased by just 1%.  My comments were based on my knowledge of Woodford, where my mother lived until her recent death.

[Andrew_S]

Estimate of how each ward in the proposed seat would have voted at the 2019 general election based on local election results.

	Con	Lab	LD	Grn	Brx	Oth
Bridge	2384	2583	384	103	118	25
Churchfields	3059	4110	837	47	53	11
Monkhams	3134	1638	370
Chingford Green	3193	2224	324
Endlebury	3326	1899	206
Hale End & Highams Park	2556	4184	382
Hatch Lane	2584	2632	277
Larkswood	3209	2920	253
Valley	2578	2697	244
	26023	24887	3277	150	171	36

The wards in the proposed constituency were previously in these seats. Estimate for divided wards.

Bridge: Ilford North
Churchfields: 1/3rd Ilford North, 2/3rds Chingford & Woodford Green.
Monkhams: Chingford & Woodford Green
Chingford Green: Chingford & Woodford Green
Endlebury: Chingford & Woodford Green
Hale End & Highams Park: Chingford & Woodford Green
Hatch Lane: Chingford & Woodford Green
Larkswood: Chingford & Woodford Green
Valley: Chingford & Woodford Green

[Clark]

Any idea why Duncan-Smith achieved a 6.5% swing in his favour from Labour here in 2005? A swing much higher than average in an area supposedly trending away from the Tories by then?

[stb12]

Sept 20, 2023 14:03:07 GMT Clark said:

Any idea why Duncan-Smith achieved a 6.5% swing in his favour from Labour here in 2005? A swing much higher than average in an area supposedly trending away from the Tories by then?

The trends maybe weren’t really kicking in then, he increased his majority in 2010 as well

[Pete Whitehead]

The swing was very sluggish in 2010 though. Clearly the trend was kicking in by then.

[batman]

I don't think the trending was yet clear in 2005. The first signs that this constituency might be trending to Labour came some years later.

[Clark]

I think his good performance in 2005 was most likely due to his higher profile in the previous parliament as leader of the opposition for a few years.

[stb12]

I remember thinking at the time of 2015 the swing against IDS then may have been due to him being the face of welfare reforms that at the very least were divisive. But obviously with what’s happened since it’s been a general trend

[Sg1]

Sept 20, 2023 14:11:19 GMT stb12 said:

Sept 20, 2023 14:03:07 GMT Clark said:

Any idea why Duncan-Smith achieved a 6.5% swing in his favour from Labour here in 2005? A swing much higher than average in an area supposedly trending away from the Tories by then?

The trends maybe weren’t really kicking in then, he increased his majority in 2010 as well

Also if memory serves the swings were fairly decent in most of London for the Conservatives in 2005, including in some seats that are trending Labour at the moment

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The swing to Conservatives in London at the 2005 election was 5%, against a GB wide swing of 3.2%. But every general election since then has seen London swing more to Labour than the GB wide swing.

[Deleted]

Sept 22, 2023 22:21:52 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The swing to Conservatives in London at the 2005 election was 5%, against a GB wide swing of 3.2%. But every general election since then has seen London swing more to Labour than the GB wide swing.

That makes sense. The Tories only lost Lewisham East by around 21% in 2005. Considering what's happened there since, that was a very good result. Your point also partly explains why Labour increased votes in Tooting and other seats in 2010. I guess the Iraq War issue faded and Lib Dam voters from 2005 came home in some seats. Islington South & Finsbury springs to mind where a hyper-marginal seat stayed Labour fairly easily in 2010. 

Closer to here, it's notable that the Tories didn't really advance all that much in Redbridge in the 2006 council elections, despite Labour's wipeout in Ilford North in 2006. IIRC, Putney was the big London result in 2005, along with Enfield, Southgate. They also narrowly won Croydon Central and barely lost Battersea. 2005 wasn't great for Labour in London really, though they did cling on to Battersea and Islington South & Finsbury. 

[johnloony]

Sept 22, 2023 22:21:52 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The swing to Conservatives in London at the 2005 election was 5%, against a GB wide swing of 3.2%. But every general election since then has seen London swing more to Labour than the GB wide swing.

That process can continue until it can’t realistically go further, and there would be swingback (relatively speaking). (I don’t know if “swingback” is the right word, but anyway). It’s not hard to imagine that the net swing from Conservative to Labour in 2024 will be less in Greater London than in the rest of England. Some of us in Croydon are optimistic that (with the issue of ULEZ, and the bankruptcy caused by the Labour council), we might win back Croydon East.

[The Bishop]

We have possibly had peak ULEZ already, and it is an open question how much council unpopularity (and it is Tory run now anyway) carries over into a GE.

[batman]

It is indeed true that Croydon Council is now Tory-run, but it may be some time before the administration becomes unpopular enough to undo the electoral damage done to Labour in the borough.

[stb12]

If I remember correctly 2010 was the first time in a long time (maybe ever?) that the election 'winners' hadn't won London

[Deleted]

Sept 23, 2023 11:27:30 GMT The Bishop said:

We have possibly had peak ULEZ already, and it is an open question how much council unpopularity (and it is Tory run now anyway) carries over into a GE.

I think it may just about help the Tories win Croydon, Enfield and Sutton councils in 2026. Those elections are a long way off though. 

[londonseal80]

Sept 23, 2023 13:37:02 GMT @weld said:

Sept 23, 2023 11:27:30 GMT The Bishop said:

We have possibly had peak ULEZ already, and it is an open question how much council unpopularity (and it is Tory run now anyway) carries over into a GE.

I think it may just about help the Tories win Croydon, Enfield and Sutton councils in 2026. Those elections are a long way off though. 

I agree, though they won’t come anywhere near winning the council they could have a decent night in Hounslow. I also believe the Conservatives are more likely to gain Sutton than Westminster and Wandsworth, I think those councils won’t be won back until a very good Con election.

[rcronald]

Sept 23, 2023 13:37:02 GMT @weld said:

Sept 23, 2023 11:27:30 GMT The Bishop said:

We have possibly had peak ULEZ already, and it is an open question how much council unpopularity (and it is Tory run now anyway) carries over into a GE.

I think it may just about help the Tories win Croydon, Enfield and Sutton councils in 2026. Those elections are a long way off though. 

Enfield isn't what it used to be, can't see the Conservatives actually winning the council (even if they won the popular vote).

[Deleted]

Oct 13, 2023 11:45:13 GMT rcronald said:

Sept 23, 2023 13:37:02 GMT @weld said:

I think it may just about help the Tories win Croydon, Enfield and Sutton councils in 2026. Those elections are a long way off though. 

Enfield isn't what it used to be, can't see the Conservatives actually winning the council (even if they won the popular vote).

Yes, despite Shaun Bailey winning it in 2021. The Tories probably need to appeal to more Greek and Turkish voters there nowadays. I think the London boroughs that swung to the Tories in 2022 were Brent, Croydon, Enfield, Harrow and Hounslow. If the Tories won all the split wards in Hounslow, they'd gain five seats there.

[rcronald]

Oct 14, 2023 6:31:26 GMT @weld said:

Oct 13, 2023 11:45:13 GMT rcronald said:

Enfield isn't what it used to be, can't see the Conservatives actually winning the council (even if they won the popular vote).

Yes, despite Shaun Bailey winning it in 2021. The Tories probably need to appeal to more Greek and Turkish voters there nowadays. I think the London boroughs that swung to the Tories in 2022 were Brent, Croydon, Enfield, Harrow and Hounslow. If the Tories won all the split wards in Hounslow, they'd gain five seats there.

Winning Kurds, Turkish Cypriots, and Greek Cypriots at the same time is going to be an uphill battle to say the least…