Post by Robert Waller on Sept 22, 2023 19:40:44 GMT
A constituency name that pairs contrasting elements. Brigg is familiar enough. There was a time when this small market town, which in the far north of Lincolnshire, as its inhabitants will be quick to tell you, had a seat name to itself – one of the shortest, at five letters. Indeed it was rather a long time, from 1885 to February 1974. However for the second half of that period the electoral outcome was in fact decided by what became a much larger town, unrecognized in the title until 1974: the gritty, unglamorous steel metropolis with a notably unlovely name, Scunthorpe. Then from 1983 to 1997 Brigg was paired with Cleethorpes. However in 1997 Cleethorpes got a seat of its own and, as in a rustic dance ritual, Brigg yet again had a new partner – for the first time venturing into north Humberside (otherwise known as Yorkshire) to pair with the port of Goole on the river Ouse. Now that linkage has in turn been dissolved. Brigg is now to be joined with a novelty in constituency nomenclature, Immingham. Back south of the Humber again, Immingham is very different from Brigg: a port rather than a market town, on the coast rather than inland, very much a product of the 20th century, with its first dock opened in 1912, rather than quaintly historic, functional and even gritty rather than sleepy. One thing they do have in common, though. Both Brigg and Immingham have remained loyal to the Conservative party, even in their fairly disastrous local elections of the early 2020s; and the new constituency will be one of the safest Tory strongholds in Britain.
The new seat does of course include far more than the towns of Brigg and Immingham. After all, Brigg’ population in 2021 was only 5,600 (and it is rather amazing that it has maintained such a long run in constituency titles), and Immingham’s just under 10,000. What else is here? From the former Brigg & Goole it will have the ‘(Lincolnshire) Wolds’ villages between Brigg and Barton along the B1206/1204 from Wrawby through Worlaby, Binby, Saxby All Saints and Horkstow to South Ferriby. Another ward switched is Broughton & Appleby on the flatter land to the west of the Wolds along the arrow-straight B1207. This territory only accounts for the minority of the new seat (about 14,000), as indeed it is a minority (22%) of the present Brigg & Goole.
The majority of Brigg & Immingham will in fact consist of the majority (66%) of Cleethorpes. It will include from North Lincolnshire unitary authority Barton-upon-Humber (at 12,000 actually twice as large as Brigg, and a bit bigger than Immingham), the Ferry ward whose name reminds us of days before the Humber Bridge (opened 1981) and including Barrow-upon-Humber and New Holland, formerly the southern terminus of the Humber ferry for 161 years from 1820. There are also, from North East Lincolnshire, the suburbs of Humberston & New Waltham, Waltham and Scartho, which curl around even to reach the sea beyond Humberston. This is all very much part of the built up area of Grimsby-Cleethorpes, and is actually the largest concentration of population and hence voters in the whole seat. Scartho (which is essentially composed of modern owner occupied (83%) and mid-priced housing) is actually being moved from the Great Grimsby seat not from Cleethorpes. Overall, though, despite the new coupling of the eponymous town with Grimsby, Brigg & Immingham is in fact the true successor seat to Cleethorpes constituency.
Cleethorpes is a seat that once appeared marginal or even a bellwether, but has not done recently. It was won by Shona McIsaac for Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005. However it is a classic example of New Labour reaching parts that Old Labour never could; and which have not been penetrated since. It might be pointed out that the pattern of General Election results in the United Kingdom since 1979, as here, for the Labour party has read: Lose – Lose – Lose – Lose – Blair - Blair – Blair – Lose – Lose - Lose- Lose. In December 2019 Martin Vickers won Cleethorpes for the Conservatives with a majority of 21,418 (or 46.5%, which made it the 32nd safest Conservative seat).
Like Cleethorpes, the new Brigg & Immingham will be socially and economically unexalted. Nearly as high a proportion of its workforce is in routine and semi-routine occupations (over 28% at the time of the most recent Census, 2021) as professional or managerial (29.6%). It ranks 2nd highest of all 575 new constituencies in England and Wales in the ‘lower supervisory and technical’ category. It is well below average for students and for residents possessing degree level qualifications. All in all, in the current era of voting behaviour, it looks very Conservative. The above mentioned characteristics are no longer a good guide to vulnerability to Labour. Moreover Brigg & Immingham was over 97% white in the 2011 census. It was 76% owner occupied, well into the top decile. In 2016 the Cleethorpes division voted around 69% to leave the EU, not far behind Grimsby’s 71%. In December 2019 the Labour share in Cleethorpes dropped 12.6%. As elsewhere up and down England’s east coast, Cleethorpes, Immingham and the like clearly wanted to distance themselves from the European entanglement.
The continuing Tory strength can be seen in local election results as well. The Brigg & Immingham constituency lies mainly within the unitary authority of North East Lincolnshire. In May 2023 in addition to Immingham ward, the Tories won Waltham and Humberston/ New Waltham, large suburban villages favoured by the more affluent who work in the Grimsby-Cleethorpes ‘conurbation’, by around two to one over Labour – and other parties were notable by their absence. The Liberal Democrats did finish second in 2022 in the Wolds ward, the most ‘inland’/furthest from the Humber part of the constituency, with its remote feeling and attractive villages, running from Healing in the north through Laceby and Barnoldby-le-Beck to Wold Newton at the southern end – and yes, there are hills in Lincolnshire.
In North Lincolnshire (also a unitary), the Tories easily returned all eleven councillors in the four wards included in Brigg & Immingham in the most recent local elections in May 2023, in Brigg & Wolds by nearly there to one over Labour. This not a strong ‘minor party’ area, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens polling 8.3% between them in December 2019 in Cleethorpes constituency - though this was at least an improvement on the wretched combined score of 3.3%, and fourth and fifth place behind UKIP, in 2017. Adding the votes cast in the wards to be in Brigg & Immingham in May 2023, they managed 13% between them. It is interesting that the Tories polled 55%, which is not only more than 25% ahead of Labour, but a very rare absolute majority at a time of dismal local election results across the country. The only seat post boundary changes where Adam Gray found a higher Tory percentage is Aldridge Brownhills (59%). The only other above 50% in May 2023 was Dartford (53%).
So, despite some history of local Labour victories in the seats (Brigg & Goole and Cleethorpes) that precede this one, Brigg & Immingham even now looks overwhelmingly Conservative - in fact, notionally safer in 2019 even than Cleethorpes was.
Given the characterful names of the present constituencies in this area, it seems somewhat pleasing to note that the Commission’s originally suggestion that this seat should have the functional name of ‘South Humber’ has been abandoned. Looking through the responses to the initial proposals, as well as the Cleethorpeites who did not want to be associated with their larger neighbour Grimsby, there were many that objected to the name South Humber, mostly on the long-established grounds that they did not believe there was such as a place as ‘Humberside’. The most common suggestion, which has now been accepted, was some variation on 'Brigg and Immingham' – which are, at least, very real places, even if situated in a little known corner of England.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.8% 83/575
Owner occupied 76.2% 39/575
Private rented 14.3% 470/575
Social rented 9.5% 533/575
White 97.2% 60/575
Black 0.3% 499/575
Asian 1.3% 477/575
Managerial & professional 29.6% 370/575
Lower supervisory 8.5% 2/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.1% 129/575
Degree level 26.1% 465/575
No qualifications 20.0% 194/575
Students 4.6% 484/575
General Election 2019: Cleethorpes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Martin Vickers 31,969 69.0 +11.9
Labour Ros James 10,551 22.8 -12.6
Liberal Democrats Roy Horobin 2,535 5.5 +3.2
Green Jodi Shanahan 1,284 2.8 +1.8
C Majority 21,418 46.2 +24.5
Turnout 46,339 62.9 -2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +12.25 to C from Lab
Boundary Changes
Brigg and Immingham will consist of
65.9% of Cleethorpes
21.7% of Brigg & Goole
14.7% of Great Grimsby
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_497_Brigg%20and%20Immingham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
The new seat does of course include far more than the towns of Brigg and Immingham. After all, Brigg’ population in 2021 was only 5,600 (and it is rather amazing that it has maintained such a long run in constituency titles), and Immingham’s just under 10,000. What else is here? From the former Brigg & Goole it will have the ‘(Lincolnshire) Wolds’ villages between Brigg and Barton along the B1206/1204 from Wrawby through Worlaby, Binby, Saxby All Saints and Horkstow to South Ferriby. Another ward switched is Broughton & Appleby on the flatter land to the west of the Wolds along the arrow-straight B1207. This territory only accounts for the minority of the new seat (about 14,000), as indeed it is a minority (22%) of the present Brigg & Goole.
The majority of Brigg & Immingham will in fact consist of the majority (66%) of Cleethorpes. It will include from North Lincolnshire unitary authority Barton-upon-Humber (at 12,000 actually twice as large as Brigg, and a bit bigger than Immingham), the Ferry ward whose name reminds us of days before the Humber Bridge (opened 1981) and including Barrow-upon-Humber and New Holland, formerly the southern terminus of the Humber ferry for 161 years from 1820. There are also, from North East Lincolnshire, the suburbs of Humberston & New Waltham, Waltham and Scartho, which curl around even to reach the sea beyond Humberston. This is all very much part of the built up area of Grimsby-Cleethorpes, and is actually the largest concentration of population and hence voters in the whole seat. Scartho (which is essentially composed of modern owner occupied (83%) and mid-priced housing) is actually being moved from the Great Grimsby seat not from Cleethorpes. Overall, though, despite the new coupling of the eponymous town with Grimsby, Brigg & Immingham is in fact the true successor seat to Cleethorpes constituency.
Cleethorpes is a seat that once appeared marginal or even a bellwether, but has not done recently. It was won by Shona McIsaac for Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005. However it is a classic example of New Labour reaching parts that Old Labour never could; and which have not been penetrated since. It might be pointed out that the pattern of General Election results in the United Kingdom since 1979, as here, for the Labour party has read: Lose – Lose – Lose – Lose – Blair - Blair – Blair – Lose – Lose - Lose- Lose. In December 2019 Martin Vickers won Cleethorpes for the Conservatives with a majority of 21,418 (or 46.5%, which made it the 32nd safest Conservative seat).
Like Cleethorpes, the new Brigg & Immingham will be socially and economically unexalted. Nearly as high a proportion of its workforce is in routine and semi-routine occupations (over 28% at the time of the most recent Census, 2021) as professional or managerial (29.6%). It ranks 2nd highest of all 575 new constituencies in England and Wales in the ‘lower supervisory and technical’ category. It is well below average for students and for residents possessing degree level qualifications. All in all, in the current era of voting behaviour, it looks very Conservative. The above mentioned characteristics are no longer a good guide to vulnerability to Labour. Moreover Brigg & Immingham was over 97% white in the 2011 census. It was 76% owner occupied, well into the top decile. In 2016 the Cleethorpes division voted around 69% to leave the EU, not far behind Grimsby’s 71%. In December 2019 the Labour share in Cleethorpes dropped 12.6%. As elsewhere up and down England’s east coast, Cleethorpes, Immingham and the like clearly wanted to distance themselves from the European entanglement.
The continuing Tory strength can be seen in local election results as well. The Brigg & Immingham constituency lies mainly within the unitary authority of North East Lincolnshire. In May 2023 in addition to Immingham ward, the Tories won Waltham and Humberston/ New Waltham, large suburban villages favoured by the more affluent who work in the Grimsby-Cleethorpes ‘conurbation’, by around two to one over Labour – and other parties were notable by their absence. The Liberal Democrats did finish second in 2022 in the Wolds ward, the most ‘inland’/furthest from the Humber part of the constituency, with its remote feeling and attractive villages, running from Healing in the north through Laceby and Barnoldby-le-Beck to Wold Newton at the southern end – and yes, there are hills in Lincolnshire.
In North Lincolnshire (also a unitary), the Tories easily returned all eleven councillors in the four wards included in Brigg & Immingham in the most recent local elections in May 2023, in Brigg & Wolds by nearly there to one over Labour. This not a strong ‘minor party’ area, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens polling 8.3% between them in December 2019 in Cleethorpes constituency - though this was at least an improvement on the wretched combined score of 3.3%, and fourth and fifth place behind UKIP, in 2017. Adding the votes cast in the wards to be in Brigg & Immingham in May 2023, they managed 13% between them. It is interesting that the Tories polled 55%, which is not only more than 25% ahead of Labour, but a very rare absolute majority at a time of dismal local election results across the country. The only seat post boundary changes where Adam Gray found a higher Tory percentage is Aldridge Brownhills (59%). The only other above 50% in May 2023 was Dartford (53%).
So, despite some history of local Labour victories in the seats (Brigg & Goole and Cleethorpes) that precede this one, Brigg & Immingham even now looks overwhelmingly Conservative - in fact, notionally safer in 2019 even than Cleethorpes was.
Given the characterful names of the present constituencies in this area, it seems somewhat pleasing to note that the Commission’s originally suggestion that this seat should have the functional name of ‘South Humber’ has been abandoned. Looking through the responses to the initial proposals, as well as the Cleethorpeites who did not want to be associated with their larger neighbour Grimsby, there were many that objected to the name South Humber, mostly on the long-established grounds that they did not believe there was such as a place as ‘Humberside’. The most common suggestion, which has now been accepted, was some variation on 'Brigg and Immingham' – which are, at least, very real places, even if situated in a little known corner of England.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 24.8% 83/575
Owner occupied 76.2% 39/575
Private rented 14.3% 470/575
Social rented 9.5% 533/575
White 97.2% 60/575
Black 0.3% 499/575
Asian 1.3% 477/575
Managerial & professional 29.6% 370/575
Lower supervisory 8.5% 2/575
Routine & Semi-routine 28.1% 129/575
Degree level 26.1% 465/575
No qualifications 20.0% 194/575
Students 4.6% 484/575
General Election 2019: Cleethorpes
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Martin Vickers 31,969 69.0 +11.9
Labour Ros James 10,551 22.8 -12.6
Liberal Democrats Roy Horobin 2,535 5.5 +3.2
Green Jodi Shanahan 1,284 2.8 +1.8
C Majority 21,418 46.2 +24.5
Turnout 46,339 62.9 -2.6
Conservative hold
Swing +12.25 to C from Lab
Boundary Changes
Brigg and Immingham will consist of
65.9% of Cleethorpes
21.7% of Brigg & Goole
14.7% of Great Grimsby
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_497_Brigg%20and%20Immingham_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional results on new boundaries - Rallings & Thrasher
Con | 33989 | 71.9% |
Lab | 9545 | 20.2% |
LD | 2067 | 4.4% |
Brexit | 1315 | 2.8% |
Green | 329 | 0.8% |
Con Majority | 24444 | 51.7% |