Local Council by-elections 21st September 2023

[Tony Otim]

COLCHESTER DC; Highwoods (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
APPLETON, Simon (Liberal Democrat)
BRADDY, Gary David (Labour)
SMITH, Paul Thomson (Conservative)

2023: LD 1029; Lab 722; Con 375; Grn 85
Dec 22by (x2): Lab 653, 501; LD 618, 366; Con 430, 413
2022: Lab 833; Con 773; LD 435
2021: Ind 780; Con 664; Lab 401; LD 188; Grn 131; RefUK 64
2019: Ind 1119; Con 409; Lab 247; LD 196; GRn 155
2018: Ind 926; Con 563; Lab 314; LD 161; Grn 75
2016: Ind 1126, 1038, 954; Con 690, 588, 522; Lab 287, 285, 283; LD 273; UKIP 251; Grn 139, 92, 91

Vacancy is for the 2021-24 term (top seat from the Dec 22 double by-election).

Current Council: Con 19; LD 15; Lab 14; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



KINGSTON-UPON-HULL UA; Bricknell (Lab disqualified for non-attendance)
Candidates:
FAREHAM, John Logan (Conservative)
HOFMAN, Sharon Irene (Labour)
LENNON, Lucy Alice (Liberal Democrats)
PAULSON, Kevin Scott (Green)
STEELE, James Richard (Yorkshire Party)

2022: Lab 1188; Con 806; Grn 134; LD 124
2021: Lab 1126; Con 964; Grn 169; LD 102
2018: Con 1172, 1141; Lab 1091, 993; LD 117, 110; UKIP 66; York 57

Vacancy is for 2022-26 term. Kevin Paulson has contested the last 2 elections here for the Greens. John Fareham (Con) was the councillor elected top in 2018 who lost his seat last year. He had been councillor for the ward on previous boundaries since 2002.

Current Council: LD 32; Lab 24; 1 vacancy



MILTON KEYNES UA; Newport Pagnell South (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ADELIYI, Ade (Conservative)
COCKSEDGE, Lynn Anthony (Independent)
LLOYD, Gary Nicholas (Green)
OYAKHIRE, Tony (Liberal Democrat)
SODEN, Saskia (Labour)
WHILD, Jane (Women’s Equality)

2023: LD 1475; Con 1098; Lab 510; RefUK 120
2022: LD 1620; Con 1068; Lab 520
2021: Con 1523; LD 1375; Lab 502; Grn 207
2019: LD 1523; Con 622; Lab 434; Grn 241
2018: LD 1533, 1433; Con 858, 753; Lab 637, 628; Grn 151; UKIP 91
2016: LD 1766; Con 645; Lab 502; UKIP 331
2015: LD 2328; Con 1938; Lab 1006; UKIP 765; Grn 334
2014: LD 1433, 1431, 1423; Con 670, 653, 600; UKIP 582, 561, 510; Grn 358; Lab 347, 295, 254

Vacancy is for the 2021-24 term. Lynn Cocksedge (Ind) was the Reform candidate this May. Ade Adeliyi (Con) stood in Bletchley West this May, Gary Lloyd for the Greens in Stantonbury, Tony Oyakhire for the Lib Dems in Wolverton and Jane Whild (WEP) in Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope.

Current Council: Lab 27; LD 15; Con 14; 1 vacancy



SOUTH AYRSHIRE UA; Girvan & South Carrick (SNP resigned)
Candidates:
LAMONT, Alan (Conservative)
McLAUGHLIN, Joseph (SNP)
ROSS, Jamie (Liberal Democrat)
SAXTON, Nicola (Labour)
SOMMERVILLE, Denise (Alba)

2022: Ind 1277, 230; Con 573, 563; SNP 1008; Lab 358; Alba 47
2017: Ind 1502, 429, 85; Con 1211; SNP 876; Lab 428

None of the candidates have contested this ward before – Alan Lamont (Con) stood in Ayr east last year, Jamie Ross (LD) in Ayr West, Nicola Saxton (Lab) in Maybole, North Carrick & Coylton, and Denise Sommerville (Alba) in Ayr North.

Current Council: Con 10; SNP 8; Lab 5; Ind 4; 1 vacancy

[The Bishop]

Some interesting contests here, surprised no comments as of yet. In particular, can the SNP break their run of byelection losses with this one?

[manchesterman]

OK I'll bite

Anyone know why there is no Independent candidate in the Ayrshire seat, given that they topped the polls in 2017 & 2022?

[lackeroftalent]

Because the Independent topping the poll is Alec Clark who has placed first here since 2012 and is currently a councillor and the other independent candidates have been nowhere near as popular?

[Tony Otim]

Sept 17, 2023 9:32:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Some interesting contests here, surprised no comments as of yet. In particular, can the SNP break their run of byelection losses with this one?

The 2022 result, adjusted for a single vacancy with the indy removed and votes reallocated, gives a very narrow SNP victory over Con. The SNP have gone backwards more than the Conservatives (who were already slumping then) since then nationally and my guess would be that Conservative voters may be more motivated to turn out for the by-election, so I think a Conservative gain is probably the most likely outcome...

[threecrowns]

Bricknell is the next ward to mine and it is the first three horse race between Lab, Con and LD that I can remember in Hull.

This was the only Tory seat in the city until successive losses to Labour in 2021 and 2022. These were down to the hard work of current Labour Cllr Peter North, it is no coincidence that he was instrumental in the Labour win in the adjoining ward of Cottingham South in the East Riding earlier this year. The Labour candidate is Sharon Hofman, local to the ward and held until recently a job at Hull CC in a high ranking role in Adult Social Care. Seems a safe pair of hands and comfortably winning the poster war.

John Fareham is the former Tory councillor that lost in 2022. Bricknell is hardly a hotbed of right wing political thought so he must have been doing something right to keep being re-elected. That said, he was fined for fly tipping a year or so before he lost his seat. It made the local press and I doubt it did him any good. His twitter account @john4bricknell has some interesting titbits relating to the election, specifically the antics of the Lib Dems. Speaking of which...

Bricknell is one of the few wards in Hull not cursed with incessant carpet bombing of Focus leaflets at election time. Their vote in Hull is clearly an anti Labour one, they haven't bothered putting anything out in the ward since 2011. Until now. They are going for this, primarily on a "Tories can't win here anymore" message. I'm not sure there is any substance to that, but it's never stopped the Hull Lib Dems before. Their candidate seems very young, only thing I found online about her was a pic in the local rag of her celebrating her A level results a few years ago. They seem like they've thrown everything at this, but if you held a gun to my head I'd say a Labour win with the other two pretty close to each other.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I don't have a clear sense of what's happening in Colchester, though it's worth noting that the secondary school in the ward has got serious issues with RAAC. One gets the impression that a lot of the electorate there is quite happy to be represented by either Labour or the LDs and doesn't have a strong preference either way. That said, the bits of the ward you'd expect to be highest-turnout are also those you'd expect to have the least Labour potential.

In Newport Pagnell, it appears that Labour is running a decent campaign. I suspect that the import of that is more about identifying LD voters who can be persuaded to vote Labour in the general election, but given what happened in Olney in May I suppose you can't rule out something more surprising.

[peterw]

I live in Braintree and know Colchester fairly well. I would expect the Lib Dems to take Highwoods (I think the local Labour party are expecting that too although they have been very active in trying to hold it).

[phil156]

A even split this week on the counts Thursday evening are Kingston-upon-Hull & South Ayrshire the other two are Friday morning

[batman]

Sept 17, 2023 9:32:13 GMT The Bishop said:

Some interesting contests here, surprised no comments as of yet. In particular, can the SNP break their run of byelection losses with this one?

I doubt it. It definitely has Conservative potential

[jamesdoyle]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-four-local-by-elections-of-21st-september-2023-d49911fbd979

[borisminor]

Sept 17, 2023 11:22:31 GMT threecrowns said:

Bricknell is the next ward to mine and it is the first three horse race between Lab, Con and LD that I can remember in Hull.

This was the only Tory seat in the city until successive losses to Labour in 2021 and 2022. These were down to the hard work of current Labour Cllr Peter North, it is no coincidence that he was instrumental in the Labour win in the adjoining ward of Cottingham South in the East Riding earlier this year. The Labour candidate is Sharon Hofman, local to the ward and held until recently a job at Hull CC in a high ranking role in Adult Social Care. Seems a safe pair of hands and comfortably winning the poster war.

John Fareham is the former Tory councillor that lost in 2022. Bricknell is hardly a hotbed of right wing political thought so he must have been doing something right to keep being re-elected. That said, he was fined for fly tipping a year or so before he lost his seat. It made the local press and I doubt it did him any good. His twitter account @john4bricknell has some interesting titbits relating to the election, specifically the antics of the Lib Dems. Speaking of which...

Bricknell is one of the few wards in Hull not cursed with incessant carpet bombing of Focus leaflets at election time. Their vote in Hull is clearly an anti Labour one, they haven't bothered putting anything out in the ward since 2011. Until now. They are going for this, primarily on a "Tories can't win here anymore" message. I'm not sure there is any substance to that, but it's never stopped the Hull Lib Dems before. Their candidate seems very young, only thing I found online about her was a pic in the local rag of her celebrating her A level results a few years ago. They seem like they've thrown everything at this, but if you held a gun to my head I'd say a Labour win with the other two pretty close to each other.

The Conservatives really messed up in 2021 when they decided to still release leaflets with John Abbott's name prominently positioned which seemed completely nonsensical considering the allegations about him at the time.

[ricmk]

Beautiful day in Newport Pagnell. It's well worth noting that this ward is about 3km from the edge of Mid Bedfordshire, and 75% of it has a lot of similar demographics and characteristics to the Mid Beds towns. So whoever does well here will take some encouragement for the bigger by-election next door. (The other 25% of the ward is core MK estates across the M1 and very much part of the new town and different characteristics to Mid Beds.)

Very much a three horse race, East Anglian Lefty has already pointed out the Labour campaign is strong and I think he underplays it if anything. They had nothing to lose, a ward they normally don't have strength to work in. But a crucial one for the MK North seat at the general election and they've gone for it. A major issue in the campaign has been the messing around with asylum seekers in the ward - articles at www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-66466270 and www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/people/exclusive-controversial-asylum-seeker-hotel-in-milton-keynes-suddenly-closed-down-4267750 and www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/people/asylum-seeker-hotel-plan-for-town-in-milton-keynes-takes-startling-twist-4342867 give a flavour - although the latest moves are slightly out of the ward and probably too late to gain traction.

Given the unfortunate circumstances of the by-election, the disarray in MK Tories at the moment and the strength of the Labour and Lib Dem campaigns, I think the Tories may end up third in their own defence. But that does depend on genteel Newport residents voting for a 21 year old PPE student as the Labour candidate which has to be a small question mark. I'd make the Lib Dems favourite, but the MK Labour machine is firing strong and may surprise everyone. If Labour do win this, it will augur very well for Mid Beds, if the Tories do better than expected likewise. If the Lib Dems win well, it probably has less direct cross-over due to the Lib Dem history in the seat but it'll still be a sign of encouragement.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Regarding the Ayrshire by-election, I do wonder if we're slightly underplaying Labour potential in the ward. They're too far back to look like realistic winners, but given Scotland-wide polling you would expect them to get a bump. That would mean that their transfers are likely to be decisive, and in general I would expect the Tories to do less well out of Labour transfers than the reverse (partially due to the SNP doing slightly better, more due to a greater proportion not transferring.)

[Tony Otim]

Sept 21, 2023 9:58:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Regarding the Ayrshire by-election, I do wonder if we're slightly underplaying Labour potential in the ward. They're too far back to look like realistic winners, but given Scotland-wide polling you would expect them to get a bump. That would mean that their transfers are likely to be decisive, and in general I would expect the Tories to do less well out of Labour transfers than the reverse (partially due to the SNP doing slightly better, more due to a greater proportion not transferring.)

Last year, the SNP were certainly doing better than the Tories from Labour transfers - it will be interesting to see if that still holds, or if as you suggest, a lot just don't transfer at all.

The other interesting thing would be if one of the others (probably the SNP) crashed so badly that Labour were able to sneak second - they would probably do much better out of SNP or Con transfers than either of the others would - could that give them a narrow path to victory (I'm not convinced they'll get close enough, but we'll see).

Finally, do Alba manage to get any kind of bump out of the SNP's woes?

[maxque]

I assume the SNP would be better from the Labour transfer, as the SNP-Labour swing voters now supporting Labour still probably prefer their former party to the Conservatives.

[phil156]

Bit confused if the Colchester by-election is a Labour defence and it's for the 2021-24 period then it should be an Ind defence surely as by-elections don't normally count. It doesn't really matter as the is no Ind standing anyway but I certainly would not call it a Labour hold or loss
I am sure there is better people that can settle my confusion then my thick head can

[phil156]

Sept 21, 2023 17:41:15 GMT phil156 said:

Bit confused if the Colchester by-election is a Labour defence and it's for the 2021-24 period then it should be an Ind defence surely as by-elections don't normally count. It doesn't really matter as the is no Ind standing anyway but I certainly would not call it a Labour hold or loss
I am sure there is better people that can settle my confusion then my thick head can

    Its ok folks it my head its defections of a councillor/mp when they call it a hold from whoever won it in the previous election - sorry 

[Toylyyev]

Sept 21, 2023 9:58:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Regarding the Ayrshire by-election, I do wonder if we're slightly underplaying Labour potential in the ward. They're too far back to look like realistic winners, but given Scotland-wide polling you would expect them to get a bump. That would mean that their transfers are likely to be decisive, and in general I would expect the Tories to do less well out of Labour transfers than the reverse (partially due to the SNP doing slightly better, more due to a greater proportion not transferring.)

At the risk of looking daft in a few hours

The ward had a three way marginal result in 2007 before Alec Clarke did put everyone behind on roughly equal preference shares. Labour ran an organised campaign and their candidate is the daughter of the Labour councillor from Troon.

www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/10700/

My prediction pitch at first had the three close enough for the transfers becoming enough of a headache to pick the lazy and risk-averse conservative option. The reason for putting Labour third was their third spot in South Ayrshire in 2022 and likely not running campaigns in the last elections in this ward.

I read somewhere that the SNP candidate lives in Girvan and the only one in the ward, and the rest of what i could glean also gave a wee bit the impression of last week's Swale Indy campa. 

[andrewteale]

Sept 21, 2023 18:42:26 GMT Toylyyev said:

Sept 21, 2023 9:58:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Regarding the Ayrshire by-election, I do wonder if we're slightly underplaying Labour potential in the ward. They're too far back to look like realistic winners, but given Scotland-wide polling you would expect them to get a bump. That would mean that their transfers are likely to be decisive, and in general I would expect the Tories to do less well out of Labour transfers than the reverse (partially due to the SNP doing slightly better, more due to a greater proportion not transferring.)

At the risk of looking daft in a few hours

The ward had a three way marginal result in 2007 before Alec Clarke did put everyone behind on roughly equal preference shares. Labour ran an organised campaign and their candidate is the daughter of the Labour councillor from Troon.

www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/10700/

My prediction pitch at first had the three close enough for the transfers becoming enough of a headache to pick the lazy and risk-averse conservative option. The reason for putting Labour third was their third spot in South Ayrshire in 2022 and likely not running campaigns in the last elections in this ward.

I read somewhere that the SNP candidate lives in Girvan and the only one in the ward, and the rest of what i could glean also gave a wee bit the impression of last week's Swale Indy campa. 

Back in the days when FPTP could shut the SNP out in South Ayrshire, Labour clearly carried what's now this ward in the 2003 local elections. Of the three predecessor wards, Labour won Girvan Glendoune and South Carrick while the Conservatives won Girvan Ailsa.