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Post by andrewp on Sept 22, 2023 11:40:23 GMT
Numbers below updated following this weeks contests.
Excluding countermanded elections, up to 21st September , there have now been 60 ordinary by elections since May 4th.
The Conservatives have defended 17- Held 4 and lost 13: 3 to the Greens, 5 to the Lib Dem’s, 4 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 24%) and have gained 5
Labour have defended 27- Held 18 and lost 9: 3 to the Conservatives, 3 to Independents, 2 to the Lib Dem’s and 1 to the Greens( retention rate 67%) and have gained 6
Lib Dem’s have defended 6: Held 5 and lost 1 to the Greens ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 8
Greens have defended 4: Held 2 and lost 2. 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to an Independent( retention rate 50%) and have gained 5
Independents have defended 1. Held 1. And have gained 5
Residents have defended 1, held 1
SNP have defended 3 Lost 3, 1 to the Conservatives and 2 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
Vectis have defended 1, lost 1 to the Lib Dems
Overall net changes
Con -8
Lab -3
LD +7
Green +3
Ind + 5
SNP -3
Vectis -1
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 22, 2023 11:43:31 GMT
I think in the short term the Conservatives may well fade away in Bricknell and the Lib Dem’s will challenge. The only thing I’d point out, and I don’t think it’s particularly the case in this case, is that obviously we focus on by elections and when x party makes progress when working solely on 1 ward and we say, ‘ that’s something to build on’, in the next full election where said party has eg 10 wards to work not one, how often do they build on the progress and win and how often does that ward the. get 20% of the work it got in the by election from that party, and they don’t/ aren’t able to build on it. That's the whole logic under FPTP of targetting - better to fight that one ward properly and win it, whilst coming nowhere elsewhere, than put a reasonable effort into 3 or 4 wards and get three or four distant second places. It's long been the LD way, and also that of the Greens - it's obviously got limitations too - on a big scale, Sheffield in recent years has seen us come second virtually nowhere, and now Sheffield Lib Dems face an issue of how to expand as they either win or come way back. But at least targetting means you have a reasonable chance of winning somewhere then consolidating that. For whatever reasons, the Tories seem reluctant to target in the same sort of way Some of it is that the Tories are not the same sort of party - being a big, broad national party means it's much harder for you to have a very distinctive local identity, or to win the votes of people who don't particularly agree with your nominal national priorities but will vote for you because you're noticeable locally. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,531
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Post by iang on Sept 22, 2023 12:34:16 GMT
Yes, that seems a fair comment - as people will perfectly legitimately note, there are weaknesses as well as strengths of the whole "we work harder than anyone else round here" approach
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,307
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 22, 2023 13:11:10 GMT
The question now is how much Duverger's law leads Labour voters to back the Tories as the likely Unionist repository next GE, and how much Labour advance. The transfers in this by-election do not suggest that Labour really function as part of a "Unionist" bloc: when the Labour candidate was eliminated the Tories only picked up 1 more transfer than the SNP, and nearly half the votes were non-transferable. Indeed, given that some of those "Labour transfers" will have started with the Lib Dems, I think it's likely that among people whose first preference was Labour the SNP did slightly better than the Tories in the final round, with of course many abstentions. Indeed, and as noted upthread the pattern last year was certainly that Labour transfers generally favoured the SNP above the Tories. This was clearly a very good Conservative performance. As ntyuk1707 notes above, it may be best not to read too much into it for the GE. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock is probably the best chance of a Con gain in Scotland and perhaps one of the best in the whole UK, but if the whole dynamic of the GE is very much one of kicking the Tories out, which is at least possible, then voting patterns in local elections may not have much bearing on the overall outcome. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 22, 2023 13:29:24 GMT
That's the whole logic under FPTP of targetting - better to fight that one ward properly and win it, whilst coming nowhere elsewhere, than put a reasonable effort into 3 or 4 wards and get three or four distant second places. It's long been the LD way, and also that of the Greens - it's obviously got limitations too - on a big scale, Sheffield in recent years has seen us come second virtually nowhere, and now Sheffield Lib Dems face an issue of how to expand as they either win or come way back. But at least targetting means you have a reasonable chance of winning somewhere then consolidating that. For whatever reasons, the Tories seem reluctant to target in the same sort of way Some of it is that the Tories are not the same sort of party - being a big, broad national party means it's much harder for you to have a very distinctive local identity, or to win the votes of people who don't particularly agree with your nominal national priorities but will vote for you because you're noticeable locally. To a degree, that is also true of Labour, I would say, certainly compared with LDs or Greens. Again they aim to be a "big broad national party" and find it difficult to adapt to local circumstances.They are comfortable when places fit their stereotypes of how places should be, |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 22, 2023 13:48:06 GMT
I think this is the wrong way round. It's less about the stereotypes activists have of a place (where, let's not forget, they actually live) and more about the stereotypes voters have of their party. Those stereotypes can be broken, but it's harder the more deeply-rooted those stereotypes are.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 15:10:33 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain in Britain next time. in the constituency, however it is worth recognising that Girvan & South Carrick had a very high Independent vote and is the second strongest Conservative ward in the seat. More than likely I suspect the Conservatives would have performed fairly well at last year's local elections in Prestwick and Girvan & South Carrick if there wasn't an independent candidate in those wards. Universal swing from 2017 would yield Con: 43%, SNP: 33%, Labour: 22%. (So the result was slightly better for Tories vs. 2017 and worse for SNP and Labour vs. 2017) |
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Post by andrewteale on Sept 22, 2023 16:40:28 GMT
That's fair enough, although the anti-Tory vote may be split. It's also worth noting, as someone else said, the Tories got more votes in 2023 than 2022 in the ward. But that comparison is seriously distorted by the absence of a strong Independent polling a very high vote share. How many votes would the Tories have won in 2022 had there been no Independent in the field? I really should have looked at this before writing the Preview, but if you take the 2022 preferences, eliminate the two independent candidates and redistribute their votes, you get C 1484 (Scott 831 + Kane 744) = 39.9% SNP 1394 = 37.4% Lab 744 = 20.0% Alba 98 = 2.6% |
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Post by graham on Sept 22, 2023 17:40:19 GMT
But that comparison is seriously distorted by the absence of a strong Independent polling a very high vote share. How many votes would the Tories have won in 2022 had there been no Independent in the field? I really should have looked at this before writing the Preview, but if you take the 2022 preferences, eliminate the two independent candidates and redistribute their votes, you get C 1484 (Scott 831 + Kane 744) = 39.9% SNP 1394 = 37.4% Lab 744 = 20.0% Alba 98 = 2.6% But how is it possible to redistribute the Independent votes from 2022? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,180
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 22, 2023 17:46:13 GMT
So we have Labour people saying that the Lib Dems might be disappointed not to have won in Hull.
Then we have Lib Dems saying that Labour might be disappointed not to have won in Milton Keynes.
Shall we call it a score draw?
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Post by johnloony on Sept 22, 2023 18:06:22 GMT
I really should have looked at this before writing the Preview, but if you take the 2022 preferences, eliminate the two independent candidates and redistribute their votes, you get C 1484 (Scott 831 + Kane 744) = 39.9% SNP 1394 = 37.4% Lab 744 = 20.0% Alba 98 = 2.6% But how is it possible to redistribute the Independent votes from 2022? By looking at the second preferences of the people who voted for the Independent candidates. The full set of preferences from all the ballot papers are (sometimes) available - I think it depends on the council |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 22, 2023 19:50:26 GMT
I really should have looked at this before writing the Preview, but if you take the 2022 preferences, eliminate the two independent candidates and redistribute their votes, you get C 1484 (Scott 831 + Kane 744) = 39.9% SNP 1394 = 37.4% Lab 744 = 20.0% Alba 98 = 2.6% But how is it possible to redistribute the Independent votes from 2022? By looking at the detailed audit report from the results. Edit - John beat me to the answer. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,307
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 22, 2023 19:58:01 GMT
But how is it possible to redistribute the Independent votes from 2022? By looking at the second preferences of the people who voted for the Independent candidates. The full set of preferences from all the ballot papers are (sometimes) available - I think it depends on the council I think all the Scottish councils do publish them... somewhere, and they're not necessarily in the most user friendly format, but they are there. |
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Post by michaelarden on Sept 22, 2023 21:28:19 GMT
Stage 2 - Sommerville's votes: Lamont (C) 8 McLaughlin (SNP) 24 Ross (L Dem) 5 Saxton (Lab) 8 Non-transferrable 25. Lamont hasn't made quota so Ross has now been eliminated. Only a third of Alba's votes transferred to the other independence party. They really are just a spoiler and are harming the cause they purport to support. I wonder if they are being funded by Better Together? |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 22, 2023 21:47:12 GMT
Stage 2 - Sommerville's votes: Lamont (C) 8 McLaughlin (SNP) 24 Ross (L Dem) 5 Saxton (Lab) 8 Non-transferrable 25. Lamont hasn't made quota so Ross has now been eliminated. Only a third of Alba's votes transferred to the other independence party. They really are just a spoiler and are harming the cause they purport to support. I wonder if they are being funded by Better Together? These transfers are always fascinating because they show a bit more of voter's thinking, with people behaving (if that's the right word) not necessarily in the way we would 'expect'.
There must be quite a high proportion of Alba voters who hate the SNP for various reasons and therefore have no intention whatsoever of giving them a vote, even if that benefits the opponents of nationalism. The system gives them that option and they take it. |
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,341 
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Post by weld on Sept 23, 2023 1:10:24 GMT
On a universal swing from the local elections you would be looking at a vote of around 41% Conservative, 27% SNP and 26% Labour in the constituency, however it is worth recognising that Girvan & South Carrick had a very high Independent vote and is the second strongest Conservative ward in the seat. More than likely I suspect the Conservatives would have performed fairly well at last year's local elections in Prestwick and Girvan & South Carrick if there wasn't an independent candidate in those wards. Universal swing from 2017 would yield Con: 43%, SNP: 33%, Labour: 22%. (So the result was slightly better for Tories vs. 2017 and worse for SNP and Labour vs. 2017) That's pretty decent for the Conservatives. You can probably get decent odds on a Tory gain in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock for the next GE. |
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Post by graham on Sept 23, 2023 9:56:25 GMT
Universal swing from 2017 would yield Con: 43%, SNP: 33%, Labour: 22%. (So the result was slightly better for Tories vs. 2017 and worse for SNP and Labour vs. 2017) That's pretty decent for the Conservatives. You can probably get decent odds on a Tory gain in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock for the next GE. Why would Labour fail to exceed its 2015 vote share given current polls in Scotland? |
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weld
Non-Aligned
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Post by weld on Sept 23, 2023 10:41:49 GMT
That's pretty decent for the Conservatives. You can probably get decent odds on a Tory gain in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock for the next GE. Why would Labour fail to exceed its 2015 vote share given current polls in Scotland? Where do I say that they won’t? I just think they shed a lot of votes to the Tories in 2017 and won’t get all of ‘em back. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 23, 2023 14:52:11 GMT
That's pretty decent for the Conservatives. You can probably get decent odds on a Tory gain in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock for the next GE. Why would Labour fail to exceed its 2015 vote share given current polls in Scotland? Tactical voting against the SNP and towards the Conservatives, and against the Conservatives and towards the SNP. Bear in mind Labour only took 13% of the vote in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2019. |
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 25, 2023 0:35:15 GMT
But how is it possible to redistribute the Independent votes from 2022? By looking at the second preferences of the people who voted for the Independent candidates. The full set of preferences from all the ballot papers are (sometimes) available_(my underscore) - I think it depends on the council (Excel doc) [9KB] Tabulating the second and third preferences of Todor Radic and Alec Clark
1st prefs | TR2 TR3 | AC2 AC3 | Σ
--------------------------------------|---------|---------|-----
1 Independent Alec Clark 1277 | 66 | |
3 SNP Peter Henderson 1008 | 26 9 | 308 43 | 1394
6 Conservative Gavin Scott 573 | 47 11 | 133 74 | 838
4 Conservative Linda Kane 563 | 15 3 | 138 18 | 737
2 Labour Aaron Gilpin 358 | 25 18 | 198 54 | 653
5 Independent Todor Radic 230 | | 274 |
7 Alba Eileen Spence 47 | 7 2 | 22 20 | 98
Non-transferable | 44 23 | 204 65 | 336
Rejected 75
Electorate 8849
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