iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Sept 22, 2023 9:55:50 GMT
Lib Dems win Highwoods, Colchester: LD 563 Lab 447 Con 418 Lib Dem - 39.4% (-7.1%) Labour - 31.3% (-1.4%) Conservative - 29.3% (+12.3%) Changes from this May |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 22, 2023 9:59:59 GMT
Meanwhile i managed to remember this little snippet. ballotbox.scot/preview-girvan/There were 4056 valid votes in May 2022 and 2770 yesterday. And 1315 blue votes versus 1136 last time. That’s solid for the South Ayrshire Tories. They are strong. The absence of a strong Independent candidate will have released a very big vote share which will have boosted all the parties contesting the by election. Not a good result for SNP. The Tories and Labour did ok. |
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Post by batman on Sept 22, 2023 10:00:32 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. I'm Labour and I'm far from disappointed. This is a good result for us in this particular ward. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:01:32 GMT
Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... Also a very handy advance for us. Id guess we didn't prioritize it before, but now it's definitely in play between us and Labour. You don't normally bother campaigning there in "regular" elections, will you do so next year when you will have plenty of other wards to prioritise? |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 22, 2023 10:05:48 GMT
Lib Dems win Highwoods, Colchester: LD 563 Lab 447 Con 418 Lib Dem - 39.4% (-7.1%) Labour - 31.3% (-1.4%) Conservative - 29.3% (+12.3%) Changes from this May What happened to the Conservatives in May in that ward? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 22, 2023 10:06:32 GMT
Also a very handy advance for us. Id guess we didn't prioritize it before, but now it's definitely in play between us and Labour. You don't normally bother campaigning there in "regular" electioos, will you do so next year when you will have plenty of other wards to prioritise? I can't speak for Hull Lib Dems, but it's more likely now than it was before, I would have thought. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 10:07:45 GMT
That’s solid for the South Ayrshire Tories. They are strong. The absence of a strong Independent candidate will have released a very big vote share which will have boosted all the parties contesting the by election. Not a good result for SNP. The Tories and Labour did ok. The question now is how much Duverger's law leads Labour voters to back the Tories as the likely Unionist repository next GE, and how much Labour advance. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 10:12:43 GMT
The Conservatives tied with Labour at the 2003 local council election in South Ayrshire, but despite winning more votes than Labour through a cutting of the cards Labour formed the administration. In 2006, there was a by-election in Labour-held North Carrick & Maybole East which voted Independent (Conservatives missing out by a single vote). Since then, the Conservatives have formed the largest party on South Ayrshire Council. Thanks for clarifying. It's interesting that South Scotland may prove a rare Tory bright spot in the next GE. It was a rare bright spot when they won Ayr in 2000, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 2001, Ayr and Galloway & West Dumfries in 2003, and of course in 2019, they increased their vote share in D&G against the grain of Scotland. I can see them taking Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next General Election since it looks like the SNP will fall back further than the Conservatives there. I wouldn't get too carried away by that prospect. Like I said, the area is far from homogenous and there was a high Independent vote in Girvan & South Carrick last year which muddies the water a bit. Girvan & South Carrick is not typical of the constituency as a whole. It is a rural ward which, on demographic markers, would have probably voted to leave the EU in 2016 and is a much better area for the Conservatives than the constituency as a whole. When Labour were well ahead here in 2007, the Conservatives won the Girvan & South Carrick ward on 37% of the vote to the SNP's 33% and Labour's 30% (and that was without the Tory-leaning villages of Maidens and Turnberry). It's a very good result for the Conservatives, but should not be used in isolation to extrapolate any great conclusions as to how Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock will vote next year. In fact, factoring in for Independents, the result is probably slightly worse than the Conservatives' performance here in 2017 and slightly better for the SNP versus their 2017 performance. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:16:47 GMT
As for Newport Pagnell, it can both be true that Labour were hoping for even better and that this is still a quite encouraging result for them. In a byelection situation, it was always likely that the local LibDem electoral machine that has been sustained over several years would prevail.
Speaking of which, that Colchester result is quite anaemic for them despite being a gain.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 22, 2023 10:18:46 GMT
Lib Dem - 39.4% (-7.1%) Labour - 31.3% (-1.4%) Conservative - 29.3% (+12.3%) Changes from this May What happened to the Conservatives in May in that ward? I imagine they ran a paper campaign there. Plenty of big houses south of Tesco that ought to be very good for the Tories if they're worked effectively, and it's certainly a ward they will have carried in every parliamentary election since 2015. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 10:23:13 GMT
Thanks for clarifying. It's interesting that South Scotland may prove a rare Tory bright spot in the next GE. It was a rare bright spot when they won Ayr in 2000, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 2001, Ayr and Galloway & West Dumfries in 2003, and of course in 2019, they increased their vote share in D&G against the grain of Scotland. I can see them taking Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next General Election since it looks like the SNP will fall back further than the Conservatives there. I wouldn't get too carried away by that prospect. Like I said, the area is far from homogenous and there was a high Independent vote in Girvan & South Carrick last year which muddies the water a bit. Girvan & South Carrick is not typical of the constituency as a whole. It is a rural ward which, on demographic markers, would have probably voted to leave the EU in 2016 and is a much better area for the Conservatives than the constituency as a whole. When Labour were well ahead here in 2007, the Conservatives won the Girvan & South Carrick ward on 37% of the vote to the SNP's 33% and Labour's 30% (and that was without the Tory-leaning villages of Maidens and Turnberry). It's a very good result for the Conservatives, but should not be used in isolation to extrapolate any great conclusions as to how Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock. In fact, factoring in for Independents, the result is probably slightly worse than the Conservatives' performance here in 2017 and slightly better for the SNP versus their 2017 performance.I fully take your points, but the Tories did win Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017, as you rightly predicted at the time. I think I may have also called that one correctly. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 22, 2023 10:25:01 GMT
The absence of a strong Independent candidate will have released a very big vote share which will have boosted all the parties contesting the by election. Not a good result for SNP. The Tories and Labour did ok. The question now is how much Duverger's law leads Labour voters to back the Tories as the likely Unionist repository next GE, and how much Labour advance. The dynamics of a GE are so different and turnout will be very much higher. Labour did poll over 27% in the seat even in 2015 when their vote across Scotland was 25% with the SNP almost reaching 50%. On that basis a 30% Labour vote share next time does not look unrealistic - particularly if the Independence issue has lost salience. I suspect that the strength of prevailing Anti-Tory sentiment is likely to override any inclination to vote tactically for a pro-Union candidate. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 22, 2023 10:25:26 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +105
Lab +75
Con +9
Grn +2
SNP -12
The three bigger parties got comparable results in South Ayrshire (Con +45), Hull (Lab +55) and Colchester (LDm +49). The LibDems backed that up with good scores in Hull and MK, but Lab only got small scores elsewhere, and the Cons lost points in Hull and MK.
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Post by cuthbertbede on Sept 22, 2023 10:27:30 GMT
What happened to the Conservatives in May in that ward? I imagine they ran a paper campaign there. Plenty of big houses south of Tesco that ought to be very good for the Tories if they're worked effectively, and it's certainly a ward they will have carried in every parliamentary election since 2015. There was also a focus on garden waste charges being introduced by the Lib Dem led council. As I understand it (but this is from LD sources), both Labour and the Tories raised this in their campaigning but Labour had apparently voted in favour of the charges originally. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 10:30:56 GMT
The question now is how much Duverger's law leads Labour voters to back the Tories as the likely Unionist repository next GE, and how much Labour advance. The dynamics of a GE are so different and turnout will be very much higher. Labour did poll over 27% in the seat even in 2015 when their vote across Scotland was 25% with the SNP almost reaching 50%. On that basis a 30% Labour vote share next time does not look unrealistic - particularly if the Independence issue has lost salience. I suspect that the strength of prevailing Anti-Tory sentiment is likely to override any inclination to vote tactically for a pro-Union candidate. That's fair enough, although the anti-Tory vote may be split. It's also worth noting, as someone else said, the Tories got more votes in 2023 than 2022 in the ward. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 22, 2023 10:33:09 GMT
I don't think the LDs are disappointed. This is a pretty decent result for them in a ward where they didn't figure before. Given that they control the council it's somewhat better still. But given that the circumstances of the by-election were not good for Labour I think we will be pretty satisfied by this result, too. That the byelection happened at all is arguably more the council's fault than Labour's - which is one reason to be pleased with the result. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 22, 2023 10:37:38 GMT
The dynamics of a GE are so different and turnout will be very much higher. Labour did poll over 27% in the seat even in 2015 when their vote across Scotland was 25% with the SNP almost reaching 50%. On that basis a 30% Labour vote share next time does not look unrealistic - particularly if the Independence issue has lost salience. I suspect that the strength of prevailing Anti-Tory sentiment is likely to override any inclination to vote tactically for a pro-Union candidate. That's fair enough, although the anti-Tory vote may be split. It's also worth noting, as someone else said, the Tories got more votes in 2023 than 2022 in the ward. But that comparison is seriously distorted by the absence of a strong Independent polling a very high vote share. How many votes would the Tories have won in 2022 had there been no Independent in the field? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 10:39:38 GMT
That's fair enough, although the anti-Tory vote may be split. It's also worth noting, as someone else said, the Tories got more votes in 2023 than 2022 in the ward. But that comparison is seriously distorted by the absence of a strong Independent polling a very high vote share. How many votes would the Tories have won in 2022 had there been no Independent in the field? I don't know. You're right. I'm probably working backwards from my conclusion that I want the Tories to win Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2024. I see your point. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Sept 22, 2023 11:24:46 GMT
I think in the short term the Conservatives may well fade away in Bricknell and the Lib Dem’s will challenge. The only thing I’d point out, and I don’t think it’s particularly the case in this case, is that obviously we focus on by elections and when x party makes progress when working solely on 1 ward and we say, ‘ that’s something to build on’, in the next full election where said party has eg 10 wards to work not one, how often do they build on the progress and win and how often does that ward the. get 20% of the work it got in the by election from that party, and they don’t/ aren’t able to build on it. That's the whole logic under FPTP of targetting - better to fight that one ward properly and win it, whilst coming nowhere elsewhere, than put a reasonable effort into 3 or 4 wards and get three or four distant second places. It's long been the LD way, and also that of the Greens - it's obviously got limitations too - on a big scale, Sheffield in recent years has seen us come second virtually nowhere, and now Sheffield Lib Dems face an issue of how to expand as they either win or come way back. But at least targetting means you have a reasonable chance of winning somewhere then consolidating that. For whatever reasons, the Tories seem reluctant to target in the same sort of way |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Sept 22, 2023 11:24:49 GMT
The question now is how much Duverger's law leads Labour voters to back the Tories as the likely Unionist repository next GE, and how much Labour advance. The transfers in this by-election do not suggest that Labour really function as part of a "Unionist" bloc: when the Labour candidate was eliminated the Tories only picked up 1 more transfer than the SNP, and nearly half the votes were non-transferable. Indeed, given that some of those "Labour transfers" will have started with the Lib Dems, I think it's likely that among people whose first preference was Labour the SNP did slightly better than the Tories in the final round, with of course many abstentions. |
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