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Post by manchesterman on Sept 21, 2023 23:48:13 GMT
that was quite an even split
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 21, 2023 23:48:54 GMT
It turns out to the the 1st hole at Turnberry!
Hole 1 - Ailsa Craig - PAR 4
The Ailsa Craig, named after the Ailsa rock in the Firth of Clyde, is visible from almost every hole on the course. This opening hole must not be underestimated, clubbing and accuracy are key to avoiding the strategically placed greenside bunkers.
"Trump Turnberry"
Wash your mouth out!
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Post by southernliberal on Sept 22, 2023 0:05:34 GMT
John Fareham (Conservative) – 418 votes Sharon Hofman (Labour) – 919 votes Lucy Lennon (Liberal Democrats) – 647 votes Kevin Paulson (Green) – 98 votes James Steele (Yorkshire Party) – 19 Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 22, 2023 0:45:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 3:24:47 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain in Britain next time. |
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 22, 2023 5:09:11 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain_(my underscore) in Britain next time. The result actually leaves me quite puzzled for a variety of reasons. The only thing making some sense so far is that there was a by-election result in the Dalry & West Kilbride ward of North Ayrshire during August 2021 with an even larger low-balling of the Conservative result in the predictions thread. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmyT493HQ9XRLBpQhXAwkI0HEAwkt0WIW8XFwPWUozMwww.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/18465/ Conservative - 2130 (56.5%, +19.4) SNP - 1418 (37.6%, +2.3) Didn't Transfer - 222 (5.9%, -21.7) ballotbox.scot/by-election-result-dwk/And yet the 2022 vote in North Ayrshire does not exhibit a corresponding pattern. Con 21.7% (-1.8) Lab 25.4% (-0.7) SNP 36.2% (+1.0) |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 5:21:20 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain_(my underscore) in Britain next time. The result actually leaves me quite puzzled for a variety of reasons. The only thing making some sense so far is that there was a by-election result in the Dalry & West Kilbride ward of North Ayrshire during August 2021 with an even larger low-balling of the Conservative result in the predictions thread. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmyT493HQ9XRLBpQhXAwkI0HEAwkt0WIW8XFwPWUozMwww.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/ward/18465/ Conservative - 2130 (56.5%, +19.4) SNP - 1418 (37.6%, +2.3) Didn't Transfer - 222 (5.9%, -21.7) ballotbox.scot/by-election-result-dwk/And yet the 2022 vote in North Ayrshire does not exhibit a corresponding pattern. Con 21.7% (-1.8) Lab 25.4% (-0.7) SNP 36.2% (+1.0) I don’t know much about North Ayrshire. Paging ntyuk1707. |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 22, 2023 5:46:07 GMT
I don’t know much about North Ayrshire. ntyuk1707 might. Meanwhile i managed to remember this little snippet. ballotbox.scot/preview-girvan/There were 4056 valid votes in May 2022 and 2770 yesterday. And 1315 blue votes versus 1136 last time. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 5:56:24 GMT
I don’t know much about North Ayrshire. ntyuk1707 might. Meanwhile i managed to remember this little snippet. ballotbox.scot/preview-girvan/There were 4056 valid votes in May 2022 and 2770 yesterday. And 1315 blue votes versus 1136 last time. That’s solid for the South Ayrshire Tories. They are strong. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 22, 2023 6:35:49 GMT
John Fareham (Conservative) – 418 votes Sharon Hofman (Labour) – 919 votes Lucy Lennon (Liberal Democrats) – 647 votes Kevin Paulson (Green) – 98 votes James Steele (Yorkshire Party) – 19 Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... Also a very handy advance for us. Id guess we didn't prioritize it before, but now it's definitely in play between us and Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 6:51:49 GMT
Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... Also a very handy advance for us. Id guess we didn't prioritize it before, but now it's definitely in play between us and Labour. I feel like it’s the sort of ward the Tories have fallen back in. |
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Post by Clark on Sept 22, 2023 7:37:09 GMT
Unfortunately the Girvan and South Ayrshire ward result at last year's local election was skewed by Independents standing and messing up the party vote.
IND - 31%
CON - 28%
SNP - 25%
LAB - 9%
OTH - 7%
Most of the polling districts within the ward were closely fought between the top 3 but the Tories did notably better in the Turnberry district polling 43%
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Post by borisminor on Sept 22, 2023 7:54:37 GMT
The Conservative decline in Hull was made worse because students were absent for most of the campaign (the university is in the next-door ward). The University Conservative Association made up much of the campaigning force in Hull, and Bricknell was their key ward.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 8:01:30 GMT
Unfortunately the Girvan and South Ayrshire ward result at last year's local election was skewed by Independents standing and messing up the party vote. IND - 31% CON - 28% SNP - 25% LAB - 9% OTH - 7% Most of the polling districts within the ward were closely fought between the top 3 but the Tories did notably better in the Turnberry district polling 43% Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock is one to watch, Girvan the results. |
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 22, 2023 8:05:49 GMT
I noticed that Bricknell ward contains the home ground of Hull rugby club. Hull RUFC, that is. They were in our league (National 1) last season, and I did travel for the away game to the Ferens Ground on Chanterlands Avenue. It's nice but not a massive statium by any measure. RU is very much a minority interest in Hull, and their support is modest, though no doubt loyal. We won both games against them, and they managed only one draw, losing all the rest and being relegated at the first attempt. They're now in National 2 North where their opponents include Hull Ionians, who don't actually play in the city but out at Brantingham Park just off the A63 near Elloughton. There's a complicated history between the two sides involving mergers and splits between the historic clubs of Ionians, Hull & East Riding and Old Hymerians. This has left us with the two clubs that we have today.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 22, 2023 8:07:58 GMT
John Fareham (Conservative) – 418 votes Sharon Hofman (Labour) – 919 votes Lucy Lennon (Liberal Democrats) – 647 votes Kevin Paulson (Green) – 98 votes James Steele (Yorkshire Party) – 19 Quite interesting the Conservatives couldn't even finish second with a strong former councillor as their candidate.... Sour grapes are delicious aren't they? |
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Post by YL on Sept 22, 2023 8:20:18 GMT
I thought the Tories were quite likely to collapse in Bricknell, given the reports that the Lib Dems were giving it a go and the general context of Hull politics.
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Post by batman on Sept 22, 2023 8:20:23 GMT
I don't think the LDs are disappointed. This is a pretty decent result for them in a ward where they didn't figure before. Given that they control the council it's somewhat better still. But given that the circumstances of the by-election were not good for Labour I think we will be pretty satisfied by this result, too.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 22, 2023 8:32:40 GMT
I don't think the LDs are disappointed. This is a pretty decent result for them in a ward where they didn't figure before. Given that they control the council it's somewhat better still. But given that the circumstances of the by-election were not good for Labour I think we will be pretty satisfied by this result, too. Reaction from the local party on Twitter suggests that we're very pleased to have come as close as we did after not really trying before. |
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Post by threecrowns on Sept 22, 2023 8:33:51 GMT
I don't think the LDs are disappointed. This is a pretty decent result for them in a ward where they didn't figure before. Given that they control the council it's somewhat better still. But given that the circumstances of the by-election were not good for Labour I think we will be pretty satisfied by this result, too. Reaction from the local party on Twitter suggests that we're very pleased to have come as close as we did after not really trying before. I think that might be the official line but I think they thought they were going to win. |
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