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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 22, 2023 8:37:36 GMT
Bricknell has up to now been the weakest Lib Dem ward in the city but if the Conservatives entirely fade away from contention (as they are likely to do - the same path as Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield etc) then the Lib Dems stand a reasonable chance of soaking up their vote and becoming challengers to Labour in the long term.
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Post by olympian95 on Sept 22, 2023 8:38:37 GMT
It's a good result from a very distant 4th place and something to build on. Difficult to see a way back for the blues in this ward any time soon.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 22, 2023 9:00:13 GMT
I think in the short term the Conservatives may well fade away in Bricknell and the Lib Dem’s will challenge.
The only thing I’d point out, and I don’t think it’s particularly the case in this case, is that obviously we focus on by elections and when x party makes progress when working solely on 1 ward and we say, ‘ that’s something to build on’, in the next full election where said party has eg 10 wards to work not one, how often do they build on the progress and win and how often does that ward then get 20% of the work it got in the by election from that party, and they don’t/ aren’t able to build on it.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 9:04:36 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain in Britain next time. On a universal swing from the local elections you would be looking at a vote of around 41% Conservative, 27% SNP and 26% Labour in the constituency, however it is worth recognising that Girvan & South Carrick had a very high Independent vote and is the second strongest Conservative ward in the seat. More than likely I suspect the Conservatives would have performed fairly well at last year's local elections in Prestwick and Girvan & South Carrick if there wasn't an independent candidate in those wards. |
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borisminor
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Post by borisminor on Sept 22, 2023 9:07:17 GMT
I think in the short term the Conservatives may well fade away in Bricknell and the Lib Dem’s will challenge. The only thing I’d point out, and I don’t think it’s particularly the case in this case, is that obviously we focus on by elections and when x party makes progress when working solely on 1 ward and we say, ‘ that’s something to build on’, in the next full election where said party has eg 10 wards to work not one, how often do they build on the progress and win and how often does that ward the. get 20% of the work it got in the by election from that party, and they don’t/ aren’t able to build on it. I would also expect the Conservatives to do better in this ward in May 2024. This is their only target ward and are not spread as thinly as Labour or the Liberals who have many more seats to defend from each other. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 9:08:44 GMT
I don’t know much about North Ayrshire. Paging ntyuk1707 . Dalry & West Kilbride ward voted 44% Conservative to 30% SNP at last year's local elections. The ward was divided between North Coast & Cumbraes and Garnock Valley wards, which both maintained overall support for the SNP. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 22, 2023 9:11:00 GMT
Lib Dems have won Newport Pagnell South by about 400 votes.
Something like LD 1088, Lab 620, Con 510.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 22, 2023 9:16:54 GMT
Lib Dems have won Newport Pagnell South by about 400 votes. Something like LD 1088, Lab 620, Con 510. With Labour moving into second, polling more votes than the most recent result? |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Sept 22, 2023 9:19:05 GMT
I have the full result now as:
Lib Dem 1,088
Labour 684
Conservative 561
Green 80
Ind 53
WEP 34
I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more.
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Post by cuthbertbede on Sept 22, 2023 9:27:59 GMT
Lib Dems win Highwoods, Colchester:
LD 563
Lab 447
Con 418
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 9:29:45 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. Golly gosh that's good for Labour, especially after the Olney result. That said, they might have expected to do a bit better than that and need these voters in the GE. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 22, 2023 9:30:15 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. You're 'told' by whom? The Milton Keynes Lib Dems? Your post yesterday had all the hallmarks of expectation management, trying to ramp up Labour's chances (in a ward where they have always done badly) and therefore the threat to the Lib Dems so you could portray this as some sort of famous victory. You ought to know that members of this forum are not the target market for your spin |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 9:37:33 GMT
This bodes well for Tory chances in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next GE. Ayr was of course the first Tory constituency at Holyrood - they won that seat in a 2000 by-election after narrowly missing out in 1999 (that went to a recount) and then held it by razor-thin margins for most of the time until the SNP eked out a win in 2021. The Tories also snatched Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2017 at the Westminster level and their 2019 defeat wasn’t as wide as in other seats they won in the 2017 zenith like Stirling etc. I think this result suggests Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could be, as ntyuk1707 points out, the only Conservative gain in Britain next time. On a universal swing from the local elections you would be looking at a vote of around 41% Conservative, 27% SNP and 26% Labour in the constituency, however it is worth recognising that Girvan & South Carrick had a very high Independent vote and is the second strongest Conservative ward in the seat. More than likely I suspect the Conservatives would have performed fairly well at last year's local elections in Prestwick and Girvan & South Carrick if there wasn't an independent candidate in those wards. The Conservatives now hold all the seats in the Girvan & South Carrick ward in South Ayrshire, a council where they've been the largest party for a while I think? |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Sept 22, 2023 9:41:46 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. You're 'told' by whom? The Milton Keynes Lib Dems? Your post yesterday had all the hallmarks of expectation management, trying to ramp up Labour's chances (in a ward where they have always done badly) and therefore the threat to the Lib Dems so you could portray this as some sort of famous victory. You ought to know that members of this forum are not the target market for your spin Reports from the count. I am far less involved than I was and simply reporting what I see - I won't claim to be unbiased, none of us are, but I'm hardly a party shill. Speak to Labour sources / see what they've put on social media. From afar this looks like a great step forward for Labour, locally they wanted more. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 9:43:59 GMT
On a universal swing from the local elections you would be looking at a vote of around 41% Conservative, 27% SNP and 26% Labour in the constituency, however it is worth recognising that Girvan & South Carrick had a very high Independent vote and is the second strongest Conservative ward in the seat. More than likely I suspect the Conservatives would have performed fairly well at last year's local elections in Prestwick and Girvan & South Carrick if there wasn't an independent candidate in those wards. The Conservatives now hold all the seats in the Girvan & South Carrick ward in South Ayrshire, a council where they've been the largest party for a while I think? Currently they hold 2 seats to 1 for an Independent. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 22, 2023 9:44:49 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. You're 'told' by whom? The Milton Keynes Lib Dems? Your post yesterday had all the hallmarks of expectation management, trying to ramp up Labour's chances (in a ward where they have always done badly) and therefore the threat to the Lib Dems so you could portray this as some sort of famous victory. You ought to know that members of this forum are not the target market for your spin In raw terms, that's the most votes Labour have won in the ward on those lines in any contest except 2015 (which coincided with the general election.) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 9:48:21 GMT
The Conservatives now hold all the seats in the Girvan & South Carrick ward in South Ayrshire, a council where they've been the largest party for a while I think? Currently they hold 2 seats to 1 for an Independent. Of course. They're one of the more enduring Tory groups in Scotland. I think they've been the largest party on South Ayrshire since 2007? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 22, 2023 9:51:44 GMT
Currently they hold 2 seats to 1 for an Independent. Of course. They're one of the more enduring Tory groups in Scotland. I think they've been the largest party on South Ayrshire since 2007? The Conservatives tied with Labour at the 2003 local council election in South Ayrshire, but despite winning more votes than Labour through a cutting of the cards Labour formed the administration. In 2006, there was a by-election in Labour-held North Carrick & Maybole East which voted Independent (Conservatives missing out by a single vote). Since then, the Conservatives have formed the largest party on South Ayrshire Council. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Sept 22, 2023 9:54:02 GMT
I have the full result now as: Lib Dem 1,088 Labour 684 Conservative 561 Green 80 Ind 53 WEP 34 I'm told the most disappointed party are Labour; everyone else got what they expected. Labour put in a huge effort, with a massive polling day operation yesterday and external help, and yes they got 2nd but they were expecting and hoping for a lot more. Lib Dem - 43.5% (-2.6%) Labour - 27.4% (+11.5%) Conservative - 22.4% (-11.9%) Green - 3.2% Independent - 2.1% WEP - 1.4% Changes from this May |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2023 9:54:47 GMT
Of course. They're one of the more enduring Tory groups in Scotland. I think they've been the largest party on South Ayrshire since 2007? The Conservatives tied with Labour at the 2003 local council election in South Ayrshire, but despite winning more votes than Labour through a cutting of the cards Labour formed the administration. In 2006, there was a by-election in Labour-held North Carrick & Maybole East which voted Independent (Conservatives missing out by a single vote). Since then, the Conservatives have formed the largest party on South Ayrshire Council. Thanks for clarifying. It's interesting that South Scotland may prove a rare Tory bright spot in the next GE. It was a rare bright spot when they won Ayr in 2000, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 2001, Ayr and Galloway & West Dumfries in 2003, and of course in 2019, they increased their vote share in D&G against the grain of Scotland. I can see them taking Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in the next General Election since it looks like the SNP will fall back further than the Conservatives there. |
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