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Post by iainbhx on Apr 17, 2012 19:19:39 GMT
There is to be a Landtag election in Nordrhein-Westfalen due to the failure of the Red-Green minority coalition to pass a budget on the 14th of May.
There are 128 Directly elected seats with a minimum of 181 seats in the Landtag.
The previous results were:
CDU 34.6% (67 seats), SPD 34.5% (67 seats), GRN 12.1% (23 seats), FDP 6.7% (13 seats), SED 5.6% (11 seats).
The latest polls have
SPD 40%, CDU 29%, Piraten 11%, Green 10%, FDP 3%, SED 3%.
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Post by A Brown on Apr 17, 2012 20:39:30 GMT
Yes, I did see that. I previously assumed they had the SED's unquestioning support though.
Presumably if there is a SPD - PIraten majority the SPD might be wise to lure die Piraten into a coalition there?
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 17, 2012 20:46:24 GMT
Yes, I did see that. I previously assumed they had the SED's unquestioning support though. Presumably if there is a SPD - PIraten majority the SPD might be wise to lure die Piraten into a coalition there? I understood that it was Fast Drei Prozent who were supposed to abstain on the budget, but decided to join the Turkeys for an early Christmas group instead. From what I've heard, the SPD appear to be cosying back up to the Greens, they have announced a night curfew at Köln Flughafen, which will be making people at "Frankfurt"-Hahn and Leipzig rub their hands with glee. I'd have thought Red-Green could get a majority at the moment. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Apr 19, 2012 16:29:55 GMT
If you're all going to keep referring to Die Linke as SED, surely there has to be some kind of snide acknowledgement of the sheer number of 'ex'-Nazis that formed a part of CDU/CSU politics after the war?
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Post by antiken on Apr 19, 2012 17:10:40 GMT
"If you're all going to keep referring to Die Linke as SED, surely there has to be some kind of snide acknowledgement of the sheer number of 'ex'-Nazis that formed a part of CDU/CSU politics after the war?"
And also part of the SED and SPD as well. Although the German part of my family joined the FDP after instead. Members went on a whole everywhere, not just to the CDU.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2012 20:44:43 GMT
CDU SPD Green FDP Left Pirates Other
YouGov [48] 18/04/2012 32% 36% 13% 4% 4% 8% 3%
Good to see the Greens back up over the Pirates. SPD down though..
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Post by johnloony on Apr 19, 2012 21:02:56 GMT
If you're all going to keep referring to Die Linke as SED, ... "All"?  |
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Post by slicesofjim on Apr 21, 2012 11:12:19 GMT
Unfair generalisation. All non-SED invokers exclude yourselves from my wrath.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 21, 2012 11:40:42 GMT
They are pretty clearly the successor party. And one reason why they're doing so badly in the polls at the moment is their failure to even try to move beyond that.
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Post by slicesofjim on Apr 22, 2012 12:30:23 GMT
No, they're a merger of the PDS and the WASG.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 22, 2012 12:39:46 GMT
hahaha
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2012 7:24:41 GMT
Latest Bundestagwahl polls
Emnid (29/04) CDU/CSU 35%, SPD 26%, GRÜ 13%, PIR 11%, SED 7%, FDP 5%
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (27/04) CDU/CSU 35%, SPD 29%, GRÜ 14%, PIR 9%, SED 6%, FDP 3%
The 18. Bundestage will be elected in September or October 2013
Schleswig-Holstein
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (27/04) CDU 31%, SPD 31%, GRÜ 12,5%, PIR 9%, FDP 7%, SSW 4%, SED 2,5%
Schleswig-Holstein elects a new Landtag next Sunday. SSW are the Speckdänen Danish minority party. They gain far more support than the number of Danish-speakers in Schleswig.
Nordrhein-Westfalen
Emnid (29/4) SPD 38%, CDU 32%, GRÜ 10%, PIR 9%, FDP 5%, SED 4%
NRW has a special Landtag election on the 13th of May.
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Post by ailean on Apr 29, 2012 7:42:29 GMT
[quote author=iainbhx board=international thread=390 post=9183 SSW are the Speckdänen Danish minority party. They gain far more support than the number of Danish-speakers in Schleswig.[/quote]
I believe they are also exempted from the 5% threshold for seats.
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cibwr
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Post by cibwr on Apr 29, 2012 7:55:29 GMT
[quote author=iainbhx board=international thread=390 post=9183 SSW are the Speckdänen Danish minority party. They gain far more support than the number of Danish-speakers in Schleswig. I believe they are also exempted from the 5% threshold for seats.[/quote] They are, and aren't they also allied with the Frisian Parties? |
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2012 8:04:11 GMT
[quote author=iainbhx board=international thread=390 post=9183 SSW are the Speckdänen Danish minority party. They gain far more support than the number of Danish-speakers in Schleswig. I believe they are also exempted from the 5% threshold for seats.[/quote] They are (as would be any Sorbian party) , but Landtag rules are different by Land anyway and not all have a strict Fünf-Prozent hurdle. They will probably get between 2 and 4 seats. Whilst they may hold the balance of power, they have not been successful coalition builders in the past. |
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 29, 2012 8:07:09 GMT
I believe they are also exempted from the 5% threshold for seats. They are, and aren't they also allied with the Frisian Parties? They are effectively a merger of the Danish Party, the OstFrisian Party and small German farmers in Schleswig, which is why they call themselves the South Schleswig Party |
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Post by erlend on Apr 29, 2012 23:26:32 GMT
I think South Schleswig Electoralalliance. In the Old days they were fairly restricted to the border area and the Frisian coast, But nowadays they can get a base vote of well over 1% and typically I think 2% even in purely German areas. This might be unhelpful but the SSW doesn't need to meet the threshold so those votes probably give them 1 or 2 of their 4 MPs.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2012 23:35:16 GMT
I was glum for a while after seeing the Pirates polling so well and Greens coming down from last few years poll highs. Then I realised.. still polling around ~14% (+4 on 2009) and in with a shout of being Germany's third party with the collapse of FDP and Die Linke in the doldrums
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 30, 2012 17:29:59 GMT
I was glum for a while after seeing the Pirates polling so well and Greens coming down from last few years poll highs. Then I realised.. still polling around ~14% (+4 on 2009) and in with a shout of being Germany's third party with the collapse of FDP and Die Linke in the doldrums I think it is fairly likely that Die Grünen will be the third party in the Bundestag after the next election. But the way things are going, Die Piraten may have a chance, just as long as they avoid any entangling coalitions. ;D |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2012 19:13:07 GMT
I was glum for a while after seeing the Pirates polling so well and Greens coming down from last few years poll highs. Then I realised.. still polling around ~14% (+4 on 2009) and in with a shout of being Germany's third party with the collapse of FDP and Die Linke in the doldrums I think it is fairly likely that Die Grünen will be the third party in the Bundestage after the next election. But the way things are going, Die Piraten may have a chance, just as long as they avoid any entangling coalitions. ;D The pirates really are fascinating. I'm wondering if/when the bubble will burst? |
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