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Post by iainbhx on Apr 30, 2012 20:23:30 GMT
I think it is fairly likely that Die Grünen will be the third party in the Bundestage after the next election. But the way things are going, Die Piraten may have a chance, just as long as they avoid any entangling coalitions. ;D The pirates really are fascinating. I'm wondering if/when the bubble will burst? The geeks shall inherit the earth. You just have to look at their lists normally it's "Lawyer, Lawyer, Doctor, Accountant" with the Piraten it is more like "Systems Administrator, Database Manager, Web Developer" ;D I suspect that as long as they stay away from entangling coalitions, they could do very well in 2013. They will have to grow up at some point, like the German Greens did with the Realo-Deep divide. |
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Post by erlend on Apr 30, 2012 21:55:22 GMT
I suspect if I had a vote in the next Bundestag election I would be considering the Piraten. I suspect they are more socially Liberal than the FDP and are currently more electabile.
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 30, 2012 22:49:12 GMT
I suspect if I had a vote in the next Bundestag election I would be considering the Piraten. I suspect they are more socially Liberal than the FDP and are currently more electabile. I think I'd have to consider them for my list vote, but it would depend on the Wahlkreis for the Direktmandate. It would probably be CDU in most places except Bayern, Berlin, Hamburg or the Zone. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 5, 2012 7:57:39 GMT
So, a few more polls are out
Nationally
Forsa (2/5) Union 36%, SPD 25%, Grüne 12%, Piraten 11%, SED 8%, FDP 4%
InfratestDimap (3/5): Union 34%, SPD 28%, Grüne 14%, Piraten 11%, SED 6%, FDP 4%
Schleswig-Holstein (Elects this Sunday)
GMS (2/5): SPD 33%, CDU 32%, Grüne 12%, Piraten 8%, FDP 6%, SSW 4%, SED 2%
I'll do a post on this contest tomorrow.
Nordrhein-Westfalen (Elects next Sunday)
FGW (4/5): SPD 38%, CDU 31%, Grüne 11%, Piraten 8%, FDP 6%, SED 3%
Berlin (2016, probably)
Forsa (3/5) SPD 28%, CDU 23%, Grüne 16%, Piraten 15%, SED 10%, FDP *, Sonstige 8%
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 16:14:17 GMT
Initial Prognose in the Schleswig-Holstein Landtagswahl CDU 30,5% SPD 29,5% GRÜ 14% FDP 8,5%  PIR 8% SSW 4,5% SED 2,5% ;D according to the FAZ. Which would be CDU 22, SPD 22, GRÜ 10, FDP 6, PIR 6, SSW 3 SPD-GRÜ-SSW anyone? |
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Post by hifly15 on May 6, 2012 16:59:09 GMT
Das ist toll fur die FDP  Aber Ich denke dass SPD-GRU-SSW zu wenig Sitze haben werden. I believe that last time the fact that the CDU won so many constituencies created problems concerning the number of top up seats other parties received, and now the electoral law in this state has slightly changed. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 17:04:27 GMT
Das ist toll fur die FDP Aber Ich denke dass SPD-GRU-SSW zu wenig Sitze haben werden. I believe that last time the fact that the CDU won so many constituencies created problems concerning the number of top up seats other parties received, and now the electoral law in this state has slightly changed. Yes, it has, the CDU won every Direktmandaten outside of Kiel and Lübeck which sort of screwed the allocations around and Karlsruhe intervened. They are going to use Saint-Lague this time and there are some other changes. SPD-GRÜ-SSW is the favoured possible option of the electorate. We have the first result, the mighty municipality of Gröde has voted with a 100% turnout. Erste: CDU 7, PIR 2, SSW 1, GRÜ 1 Zweite: GRÜ 4, SSW 3, PIR 2, CDU 1, SPD 1 Work that one out! |
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Post by markgoodair on May 6, 2012 17:12:30 GMT
So much for those who we writing off the FDP.
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 17:16:28 GMT
So much for those who we writing off the FDP. They still have to get 5% nationally, next week will be their real test in NRW. If they clear 5% there, they may well be in on the road to be in the next Bundestag. |
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Post by hifly15 on May 6, 2012 17:18:01 GMT
We have the first result, the mighty municipality of Gröde has voted with a 100% turnout. Erste: CDU 7, PIR 2, SSW 1, GRÜ 1 Zweite: GRÜ 4, SSW 3, PIR 2, CDU 1, SPD 1 Work that one out! Are those the seat numbers? 100% turnout?? edit: Just realised Grode just contains a handful of people lol. What website are you getting the live results in from? |
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 17:22:52 GMT
We have the first result, the mighty municipality of Gröde has voted with a 100% turnout. Erste: CDU 7, PIR 2, SSW 1, GRÜ 1 Zweite: GRÜ 4, SSW 3, PIR 2, CDU 1, SPD 1 Work that one out! Are those the seat numbers? 100% turnout?? edit: Just realised Grode just contains a handful of people lol. Indeed, it's very, very small and so a 100% turnout is easy. |
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Post by hifly15 on May 6, 2012 17:23:55 GMT
Which website are you using for results?
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 17:30:29 GMT
Which website are you using for results? for the results the ZDF tracker for the prognose which is currently CDU 30,9% SPD 30,3% GRÜ 13,2% FDP 8,3%, PIR 8,2%, SSW 4,5%, SED 2,3% |
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 18:02:40 GMT
Smaller municipalities starting to declare now, no big surprises and all in line with the prognosis. I'd hazard a guess that the share of Direktmandaten will be a bit more even between CDU/SDP.
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 19:18:08 GMT
Smaller municipalities starting to declare now, no big surprises and all in line with the prognosis. I'd hazard a guess that the share of Direktmandaten will be a bit more even between CDU/SDP. First Wahlkreis declared - Neumünster SDP gain from CDU, but only just (39,6 vs 38,1). I suppose Flensburg and Plön might go as well as some of the Hamburg/Kiel/Lübeck suburbs. |
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Post by erlend on May 6, 2012 19:24:15 GMT
Ostholstein-Nord also goes SPD.
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 19:26:14 GMT
Ostholstein-Nord also goes SPD. Indeed, but looking at the result from Plön, Stadt, Plön will stay CDU. Flensburg just declared, SPD Gain, SSW a good third. Amusingly, the mildly loopy familie partei (not AUF) are beating the NPD like a mule down in the "Sonstige" section. |
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Post by erlend on May 6, 2012 19:28:06 GMT
Also Flensborg (Flensburg). Kiel Nord but the cities already had lots of SPD so that may be no change.
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 19:29:10 GMT
Also Flensborg (Flensburg). Kiel Nord but the cities already had lots of SPD so that may be no change. All the Kiel and Lübeck seats were SPD and nothing else. |
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Post by erlend on May 6, 2012 19:44:02 GMT
Elmshorn also SPD. So we are getting some breaching into the non city areas which should mean less complications on the proportionality.
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Aber Ich denke dass SPD-GRU-SSW zu wenig Sitze haben werden. I believe that last time the fact that the CDU won so many constituencies created problems concerning the number of top up seats other parties received, and now the electoral law in this state has slightly changed. 