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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 19:49:51 GMT
Elmshorn also SPD. So we are getting some breaching into the non city areas which should mean less complications on the proportionality. Respectable Hamburg dormitory town. Watch out for Stormarn-Süd, although that might be a bit too posh. Proportionality should be fine. It's not like the hilariousness that is Bayern, where a good year for the SPD means four seats in München, two in Nürnberg and maybe one other (and a bad year is all CSU). They've just gained Plön-Nord/Malente as well, that's a good gain. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 6, 2012 19:55:18 GMT
What's all this about the CSU? Has Bavaria decided to reopen the Schleswig-Holstein question?
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 19:59:36 GMT
What's all this about the CSU? Has Bavaria decided to reopen the Schleswig-Holstein question? Schleswig-Holstein has changed it's Zweite Stimmung distribution on orders from Karlsruhe because it suffered from the Bavaria effect last time. i.e. CDU got 39 Direktmandaten and SPD 6 which caused a surfeit of Überhangmandaten. I was merely comparing it to the Bayern situation. |
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Post by erlend on May 6, 2012 20:04:14 GMT
I think David was referring to your 7:18 posting where youtypoed CSU
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 20:06:48 GMT
I think David was referring to your 7:18 posting where youtypoed CSU This is why I really ought to use Union ;D |
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Post by iainbhx on May 6, 2012 22:25:03 GMT
Well, we had a bit of a wait for Stormarn-Süd, but we now have a result
CDU 30,8% 22 Direktmandaten
SPD 30,4% 13 Direktmandaten + 9 Listmandaten
GRÜ 13,2% 10 Listmandaten
FDP 8,2% 6 Listmandaten
PIR 8,2% 6 Listmandaten
SSW 4,5% 3 Listmandaten
SED 2,2%
FAM 0,9%
NDP 0,7%
FW 0,3%
MUD 0,1%
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Post by erlend on May 6, 2012 23:34:39 GMT
Interesting time to live in Slesvig-Holsten. That is messy.. Combinations that fail are FDP+Piraten plus big party.
So it needsMain party Greens and any other (although if that is SSW the majority is 1. Or a Grand coalition.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 6, 2012 23:37:02 GMT
Off-topic:
Flensburg in SH was the capital of Germany from 1st to 23rd May 1945.
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Post by iainbhx on May 7, 2012 5:51:36 GMT
Off-topic: Flensburg in SH was the capital of Germany from 1st to 23rd May 1945. Flensburg was the place where the Government was in exile, the Capital was still Berlin. ;D |
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Post by iainbhx on May 7, 2012 7:27:31 GMT
Nordrhein-Westfalen next Sunday.
New poll from YouGov
CDU 31%, SPD 37%, GRÜ 11%, PIR 9%, FDP 5%, SED 4%, Sonstige 3%
The May 2010 election Zweitstimmen was
CDU 34,6% SPD 34,5%, GRÜ 12,8%, PIR 1,6%, FDP 6,5%, SED 5,6% which resulted in
CDU 67, SPD 67, GRÜ 23, FDP 13, SED 11 of which there were 67 CDU Direktmandaten and 61 SPD Direktmandaten
The 128 Direktmandaten will be contested by CDU, SPD, GRÜ, PIR and FDP, the SED are contesting 127. There are smaller number of candidates from the Freie Wahler (20), DIE PARTEI (14), AUF (5), Freie-Bürger Initiative (4), ÖPD (3), Die Familie (2). However, let's be honest here, the Direktmandaten are all about the CDU and the SPD and the SPD could be gaining 20-30 seats here, mainly from the suburbs around Köln and the Hochemstal.
All those parties have Lists and in addition there are lists from pro NRW, NPD, BIG and Partei der Vernunft. There are a minimum of 53 List seats as there are occasionally small numbers of Überhangmandaten (if SPD gets 80+ seats, there may well be some this time).
The end result will probably be a Red-Green majority, but if the SPD get 90 seats as has been suggested by a couple of forecasts, there are hints that they may look for a smaller more compliant partner.
The Wahl-O-Mat suggests I should vote Piraten, I don't have a problem with that. ;D
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Post by stepney on May 7, 2012 8:18:28 GMT
Is anyone with a greater knowledge of Germany than me (so, just about everyone then) able to explain why a bunch of spotty-herbert computer programmers are riding at, what, 8-9% in the polls and picking up seats in the Landtags?
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Post by richardclemerson on May 7, 2012 8:40:31 GMT
Is anyone with a greater knowledge of Germany than me (so, just about everyone then) able to explain why a bunch of spotty-herbert computer programmers are riding at, what, 8-9% in the polls and picking up seats in the Landtags? Classic protest vote? |
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Post by iainbhx on May 7, 2012 9:01:54 GMT
Is anyone with a greater knowledge of Germany than me (so, just about everyone then) able to explain why a bunch of spotty-herbert computer programmers are riding at, what, 8-9% in the polls and picking up seats in the Landtags? There was a very learned and lengthy article in the FAZ on Saturday about this, their conclusion was roughly "Hey, Young People looking for something different, maybe", which is sort of backed up by last night where Die Piraten got 22% of the under-35 vote. Let's face it, in the giant Butskellite consensus which is the Bundesrepublik, there are two stodgy parties. an increasingly stodgy Green party, an unappealing bunch of posh Taschengeld boys, a collection of ex-Stasi informants and a wide selection of unelectable single issue loonies (Die Violetten anyone?). It did look for a while like the Greens were going to ride the anti-Big Two wave, especially after Stuttgart, but the Greens have been getting to be part of the consensus for the last 20 years. Along comes a party with a big thing about Internet freedom (and that's a big issue for young Germans), great social media and no obvious dangerous policies. Socially liberal (like most young Germans), capitalist but not too corporate, pro-environment but like shiny toys. Mutti and Vater will be voting SPD or Union as usual, so why not shake up the system (a little bit) and vote for these guys. |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2012 9:50:12 GMT
Is anyone with a greater knowledge of Germany than me (so, just about everyone then) able to explain why a bunch of spotty-herbert computer programmers are riding at, what, 8-9% in the polls and picking up seats in the Landtags? Because there's a lot more to them that that  Internet freedom is under threat and the Pirates are campaigners against that Our corrupt voting system will stop them from ever doing anything here and that's a damn shame. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 8, 2012 10:04:20 GMT
The marginals on Sunday in NRW for the First vote are as follows (not that it really matters as the second vote sorts it all out). The Landtagwahlkreise are unchanged from 2010
CDU held - SPD in second
Rhein-Erft-Kreis II 0.2%
Recklinghausen IV 0.4%
Solingen I 0.6%
Aachen IV 0.8%
Mettmann IV 1.1%
Minden-Lübbecke I 1.2%
Essen IV 1.2%
Köln IV 1.5%
Mönchengladbach I 1.7%
Köln I 1.7%
Oberbergischer Kreis II 2.9%
Rhein-Erft-Kreis III 2.9%
Düsseldorf IV 3.3%
Siegen-Wittgenstein II 3.5%
Münster II 3.5%
Düsseldorf II 3.8%
Warendorf II 3.9%
Siegen-Wittgenstein I 3.9%
Krefeld II 4.8%
Gütersloh II 4.8%
Düsseldorf III 4.9%
Soest II 5.0%
Münster I 5.2%
Aachen II 5.4%
Mettmann II 5.8%
Bonn II 5.9%
Rheinisch-Bergischer Kreis I 6.1%
Köln II 6.3%
Rhein-Seig-Kreis IV 7.8%
Düren I 8.1%
Märkischer Kreis II 8.6%
Rhein-Kreis Neuss II 9.2%
Mettmann I 9.3%
Euskirchen I 9.8%
Mettmann III 10.6%
Düsseldorf I 10.7%
Rhein-Erft-Kreis I 11.4%
Rhein-Sieg-Kreis I 12.2%
Rhein-Erft-Kreis III 13.0%
Rhein-Kreis Neuss I 14.1%
The polls would indicate everything on this list is potentially vulnerable and at the worst margin of error places like Mettmann III and Düsseldorf I would tumble as well. Potentially it means the SPD could gain between 23-30 seats on the first vote, which sort of hints at high 80's/low 90's for seat, which probably means feck all list seats for the SPD.
I bet the good Doktorb (or as this is Germany Doktor Doktorb) is having fits at the names. If, for instance, you renamed Köln IV in UK style it would probably at best be Köln Chorweiler & Nippes Ost. In Dok style, it would probably be Köln Chorweiler, Longerich, Mauenheim, Niehl, Riehl und Weidenpesch. ;D
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Post by toryjim on May 8, 2012 10:14:31 GMT
Is anyone with a greater knowledge of Germany than me (so, just about everyone then) able to explain why a bunch of spotty-herbert computer programmers are riding at, what, 8-9% in the polls and picking up seats in the Landtags? Because there's a lot more to them that that Internet freedom is under threat and the Pirates are campaigners against that Our corrupt voting system will stop them from ever doing anything here and that's a damn shame. There isn't that much more to them, they seem to be of the opinion that anything on the internets should be free, gratis and for nothing. Those of us of a similar generation but infinitely more mature realise that things don't come without either effort or cash! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 9, 2012 14:05:46 GMT
Our corrupt voting system will stop them from ever doing anything here and that's a damn shame. Again, you insist on using corrupt as a synonym for "Produces outcomes that I don't always agree with." Can we stop using the word to denote its antonym please? |
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Post by iainbhx on May 10, 2012 9:19:17 GMT
A new YouGov for NRW has been released
Sample size: 1063, but a very long sampling period of 10 days!
CDU 30%
SPD 37%
GRÜ 12%
PIR 8,5%
FDP 6%
SED 3,5%
Sonstige 3%
That should give the Red-Green majority that most people in NRW seem to want according to the polls.
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Post by iainbhx on May 12, 2012 9:13:07 GMT
And yesterday's Info GmbH, sample size 1007, but taken 3-5 May!
SPD 38%
CDU 34%
GRÜ 11%
PIR 8%
FDP 5%
SED 4%
Sonstige 1%
Hmm, doesn't quite feel right, no modern NRW election has 1% others, 3% is about as low as it will go. Squeakybum time for Fast Drei Prozent tomorrow.
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 7:44:00 GMT
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