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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 16:06:16 GMT
If the ZDF exit is right, this is a really bad result for Mutti SPD 38%, CDU 25,5%  , GRÜ 12%, FDP 8,5% , PIR 8%, SED 3%, Others 5% That should be 74 SPD, 50 CDU, 28 GRÜ, 17 FDP, 16 PIR, but I smell Überhangmandaten in the air. But gives the clean Rot-Grün majority for NRW. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2012 16:09:00 GMT
If the ZDF exit is right, this is a really bad result for Mutti & the pollsters ... |
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 16:14:24 GMT
If the ZDF exit is right, this is a really bad result for Mutti & the pollsters ... Well, they got the greens and the pirates right ;D |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 13, 2012 16:31:09 GMT
hahahahahahaha
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Post by A Brown on May 13, 2012 16:36:32 GMT
well a rot-grün majority was expected all along but this is a stunning result nonetheless.
Christian Lindner will have been redeemed as well presumably.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 13, 2012 16:44:59 GMT
That's an absolutely ludicrously awful result for the CDU. And that will be so even if the real numbers aren't quite so bad. Well their campaign did self-destruct at the end, which I suppose explains things, but...
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 16:51:16 GMT
That's an absolutely ludicrously awful result for the CDU. And that will be so even if the real numbers aren't quite so bad. Well their campaign did self-destruct at the end, which I suppose explains things, but... Anything below 30% in NRW is bad for the CDU, being down in the mid-20's is really awful. ZDF is now saying CDU 25,8 Prozent, SPD: 38,3 Prozent, Grüne: 12,2 Prozent, FDP: 8,4 Prozent, Linke: 2,7 Prozent, Piraten: 8,1 Prozent |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on May 13, 2012 17:04:13 GMT
Looks like a surprisingly good result for the FDP.
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Post by markgoodair on May 13, 2012 17:04:56 GMT
That's an absolutely ludicrously awful result for the CDU. And that will be so even if the real numbers aren't quite so bad. Well their campaign did self-destruct at the end, which I suppose explains things, but... it will work out to be their worst ever result here. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 17:05:34 GMT
Looks like a surprisingly good result for the FDP. Unmöglicht! They are somewhat over the moon, to say the least. 19:00 Uhr: CDU: 26,1 Prozent, SPD: 38,3 Prozent, Grüne: 12,1 Prozent, FDP: 8,4 Prozent, Linke: 2,6 Prozent, Piraten 8,1 Prozent |
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Post by hifly15 on May 13, 2012 17:13:41 GMT
The results page doesn't seem to show anything counted yet...
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 18:08:49 GMT
First Wahlkreis declared
128 Olpe Turnout 60% (-,4%)
Erststimme
CDU Hold (-5,9%)
Zweistimme
CDU 43,1% (-8,1), SPD 30,9% (+5,3), FDP 7,7% (+,9) GRÜ 6,7% (-,7) PIR 6,6% (+5,5), SED 1,6% (-,2), Others 3,5 (-,8)
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 18:11:12 GMT
Soest II SPD Gain from CDU on First Vote
SPD could be gaining around 29 Direktmandaten on these swings, which I'm fairly sure will mean some Überhangmandaten.
Latest prognose
20:03 Uhr: CDU: 26 Prozent, SPD: 38,6 Prozent, Grüne: 11,8 Prozent, FDP: 8,4 Prozent, Linke: 2,5 Prozent, Piraten: 8,1 Prozent
Just to inform, what's happening is that ZDF will be collecting the second vote results by polling district (I think it's district in NRW) and modifying their exit poll that way. We only get then results when a constituency is declared.
Düsseldorf III SPD Gain from CDU on the First Vote, slightly smaller swing in DUS, FDP up 4%.
Wesel IV SPD Hold
Höxter CDU Hold
The various form of fash (proNRW, NDP etc) seem to be picking up about 1,5% of the vote.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2012 18:32:26 GMT
Recklinghausen is one of Preston's twin cities, incidentally.
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 18:35:14 GMT
Recklinghausen is one of Preston's twin cities, incidentally. Well, the SPD have just held Recklinghausen I, once the biggest Polish constituency West of the Oder. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 18:38:27 GMT
And above and beyond the predicted swing.
SPD gain Düsseldorf I from CDU. Oh dear.
I'm updating the target list on page 4, btw
WIth a prediction for the number of Überhangmandaten included
SPD 92, CDU 62, GRÜ 28, FDP 20, PIR 19
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 19:20:47 GMT
ZDF report that CDU-Leadcandidate Norbert Röttgen has lost his seat of Bonn I. He will, of course, be elected on the List. Correction Bonn I was an SPD seat anyway.
"Die Niederlage Röttgens ist keine Niederlage Merkels" - hmm, not so sure about that. Some very bad results coming in from the Köln suburbs.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 13, 2012 20:19:57 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on May 13, 2012 20:57:50 GMT
We are mainly waiting for Essen and Köln now. The SPD have run riot through the target list and it looks like they have taken everything up to Euskirchen I which the the CDU's best hold and a fair few beyond that. So it's Überhangmandaten all around.
It will probably be something like
SPD 99, CDU 66, GRÜ 28 FDP 22 PIR 20
That's about 44 Überhangmandaten, almost Bavarian.
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Post by johnloony on May 14, 2012 1:42:35 GMT
Again, you insist on using corrupt as a synonym for "Produces outcomes that I don't always agree with." Can we stop using the word to denote its antonym please? You insist on using "we" as a synonym for "you". Can we stop using the word to denote its antonym please?  |
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, GRÜ 12%, FDP 8,5% 
