Welsh polls

[Deleted]

These are quite few and far between. YouGov's findings are as follows, with changes from the previous polls in July 2012:

Westminister: CON 22%(-1), LAB 51%(-3), LDEM 9%(+5), PC 10%(nc), UKIP 7%
Assembly constuencies: CON 21%(+2), LAB 46%(-4), LDEM 10%(+3), PC 17%(nc), UKIP 5%
Assembly list: CON 14%(+3), LAB 26%(-9), LDEM 11%(+3), PC 26%(+6), UKIP 13%(+1)
European Parliament: CON 23%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%, PC 14%, UKIP 9%
EU membership: 42% in favour, 35% against

[Pete Whitehead]

Strange that UKIP sre so much higher on the Assembly list vote than the European parliament one. Labour's share is absurdly and unbelievably low on that one as well

[Deleted]

Feb 23, 2013 11:32:54 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Strange that UKIP sre so much higher on the Assembly list vote than the European parliament one. Labour's share is absurdly and unbelievably low on that one as well

Perhaps its just labour supporters realizing that they would waste their vote voting Labour on the list as Labour don't get any top up seats outside central Wales and thus giving their vote to the 2nd preference? (From memory)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Why would a quarter of Labour supporters have suddenly realised that since the last poll?

[cibwr]

I have no idea why they would realise that, but if the poll is correct its good news for Labour, who on that report would get a 1 seat majority in the National Assembly, Qualified good news for Plaid which would again be the official opposition, great news for UKIP which would gain 5 seats. Very bad news for the Tories who would lose 5 seats to to UKIP and depressing news for the Lib Dems who would go down to 4 seats.

Oh and interesting that a majority would vote to stay in the EU.

[LDCaerdydd]

Feb 23, 2013 11:32:54 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Strange that UKIP sre so much higher on the Assembly list vote than the European parliament one. Labour's share is absurdly and unbelievably low on that one as well

Anyone know what the wording of the poll/question was?

It's clear here that the voting system was explained fully regarding the regional list which is something that people don't understand as evidence by Labour topping the poll in South Wales East, Central and West consistently.

that said I honestly can't see UKIP winning five seats in 2016 (I assume a breakdown would be 1 per region)

Something else to think about if Labour go from 30 to 31 seats where would the 31st seat be? If they gain either of the Pembroke/Carmarthen seats they'll loose a list seat - unless of course they win all three and loose the two regional seats. The only other seats I can realistically see them having a stab at are Arfon or Ynys Mon (the later assumes that IWJs retires). This of course assumes that Labour can hold onto places like Llanelli, Cardiff Central and Cardiff North all gained last time (two of which could very conceivably see the incumbent Labour AM retire in 2016).

[East Anglian Lefty]

You're assuming people are voting Labour on the list without realising that they could instead vote for a second preference and increase their chances of getting that rather than a lower preference. But in much of South Wales there isn't going to be a second preference. What's more, there were several seats where there was a chance Labour wouldn't win (Caerphilly and the two in Cardiff being the most obvious) and therefore the list constituted a form of insurance against that.

What's more, though Labour hasn't won top-up seats in South Wales, they weren't a million miles away from it this time. It'd be quite possible in South Wales East if Labour performed very strongly but the Conservatives held on to Monmouth.

[LDCaerdydd]

Feb 25, 2013 17:28:06 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

What's more, though Labour hasn't won top-up seats in South Wales, they weren't a million miles away from it this time. It'd be quite possible in South Wales East if Labour performed very strongly but the Conservatives held on to Monmouth.

If Labour couldn't do it in 2011 what chance do they have of doing it in 2016?

I think Labour where about 800 votes short of a list seat in SWE in 2011, but they can't dream of a seat in SWC or SWW unless there is an absolute collapse in the Con, PC and LD vote.

[East Anglian Lefty]

2011 wasn't the best use for us nationally. It was better in Wales, but I see no reason to believe it was the best we could ever do.

Yes, SWC and SWW are probable not places where we have realistic prospects of a list seat in normal circumstances (particularly given that the latter has only 7 constituencies.) That said, Plaid have had success in the Valleys before. I could see a set of circumstances whereby we lost constituencies in SWC or SWW but retained enough list votes to get a top-up seat to cancel it out. Though it'd be much more likely in the former than the latter.

[LDCaerdydd]

Feb 25, 2013 19:00:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

2011 wasn't the best use for us nationally. It was better in Wales, but I see no reason to believe it was the best we could ever do.

Yes, SWC and SWW are probable not places where we have realistic prospects of a list seat in normal circumstances (particularly given that the latter has only 7 constituencies.) That said, Plaid have had success in the Valleys before. I could see a set of circumstances whereby we lost constituencies in SWC or SWW but retained enough list votes to get a top-up seat to cancel it out. Though it'd be much more likely in the former than the latter.

Without drawing up a complex spreadsheet I can't check but it would't be as simple as one in one out.

In 1999 and 2007 two constituency seats where held by parties other than Labour and you didn't pick up a list seat.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Yes, but we were at 35% or thereabouts in both years. We wouldn't have got top-up seats if we'd failed to regain Cardiff North and Cardiff Central in 2011, but we wouldn't have been far off.

Voting Labour on the lists in South Wales has a low rate of return. But it's not pointless in every circumstance.

[cibwr]

Lot of other interest in the poll, a desire for more devolution, particularly over taxation and positive poll ratings for the First Minister and the Leader of Plaid Cymru.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-21602742

[iolo]

I find the low Plaid Cymru figures and the almost unbeleivable figures for UKIP baffling.   I suppose the vast number of foreigners living amongst us must be responsible, but you'd think they'd change.   Colonialism lives, alas!

[Sibboleth]

How is 'foreigner' defined? Birth? In which case Dafydd Wigley is a foreigner and Saunders Lewis was one. Ancestry? Danger: entering extremely dodgy territory...

[Deleted]

Some quality welsh bores around.

[Deleted]

Mar 4, 2013 16:34:31 GMT iolo said:

I find the low Plaid Cymru figures and the almost unbeleivable figures for UKIP baffling.   I suppose the vast number of foreigners living amongst us must be responsible, but you'd think they'd change.   Colonialism lives, alas!

I am sure my fellow Mancunian, David Lloyd George, would agree with you.

[The Bishop]

Mar 4, 2013 16:34:31 GMT iolo said:

I find the low Plaid Cymru figures and the almost unbeleivable figures for UKIP baffling.   I suppose the vast number of foreigners living amongst us must be responsible, but you'd think they'd change.   Colonialism lives, alas!

Hmmm, Plaid too moderate for you then??

[Deleted]

You can't really colonise a (small, insignificant) region of your own country anyway

[iolo]

Thieves can colonise anything if they get a few pence out of the poor and needy to spend on bankers, as you know.   Why do you think almost everyboidy has colonised England?

[Arthur Figgis]

Haven't you got any cottages to burn?