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Post by londonw5er on Apr 15, 2014 12:13:05 GMT
Tonight's Evening Standard (15/04/14) has a YouGov poll of voting intentions for both Westminster and the London borough elections next month. I can't find it anywhere on the ES website so can't post a link but the figures are:
Westminster Elections:
Conservative 34% (-1)
Labour 42% (+5)
Lib Dems 9% (-13)
Ukip 11% (+10)
Borough Elections
Conservative 34% (+2)
Labour 40% (+7)
Lib Dems 12% (-10)
Ukip 9% (+8)
These are rather modest swings compared to the national polls and suggest the Tories may be doing better than average in London. For the borough elections the swing is only 2.5% and I wonder whether this would be enough for Labour to gain any of their target boroughs next month. Of course there will be variations between boroughs and even if these figures are right there may be bigger swings where it makes a difference. Even so, this does suggest the Tories may have a chance of holding on in places like Croydon where their hopes had seemed to be quite slim.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2014 14:44:29 GMT
I wish pollsters would put things in order, glad they don't do football league tables
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 15, 2014 14:52:04 GMT
This one was in yesterday's Standard. There's also a Euro election poll.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Apr 15, 2014 14:59:12 GMT
I don't think you can tell anything from this at all.
Its well known that some parts of London are becoming more Labour, others more Conservative. We would need much clearer breakdowns per borough.
It seems obvious that the LD's are in a bit of trouble and that UKIP's vote is less than the national profile but again might be quite geographically concentrated in white outer boroughs where the Conservatives are well entrenched
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 15, 2014 15:07:39 GMT
This one was in yesterday's Standard. There's also a Euro election poll. Do you have figures for the Euro poll? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 15, 2014 15:23:32 GMT
This one was in yesterday's Standard. There's also a Euro election poll. Do you have figures for the Euro poll? Lab 33 (+12 on 2009) C 25 (-2) UKIP 24 (+13) L Dem 11 (-3) GP 5 (-6) Others 2 Which would make the 8 seats divide Lab 3, C 2, UKIP 2, L Dem 1. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 15, 2014 16:30:42 GMT
If UKIP poll 24% in London then they will have a very good election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 15, 2014 16:36:27 GMT
For UKIP to be on more than 10% in London is pretty impressive, and also being ahead of the LDs.
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Post by londonw5er on May 1, 2014 13:52:27 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2015 15:23:26 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 26, 2015 15:40:32 GMT
I really am unconvinced that Paul Burstow will lose.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 26, 2015 15:58:44 GMT
Burstow will not lose.
I'd also be surprised to see Labour gains in Bermondsey or Harrow East
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 26, 2015 15:58:59 GMT
I really am unconvinced that Paul Burstow will lose. The Lib Dems are entrenched there in a way they aren't in any other part of London, and the relatively small majority is actually more difficult to win than it seems, but I would not follow those such as the LSE/UEA Election Forecast site which put the chances of the Lib Dems retaining Sutton and Cheam at 100%. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 26, 2015 16:00:31 GMT
Burstow will not lose. I'd also be surprised to see Labour gains in Bermondsey or Harrow East The only person who thinks he'll lose is Iain Dale as far as I'm aware. |
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Jan 26, 2015 16:03:46 GMT
I really am unconvinced that Paul Burstow will lose. The Lib Dems are entrenched there in a way they aren't in any other part of London, and the relatively small majority is actually more difficult to win than it seems, but I would not follow those such as the LSE/UEA Election Forecast site which put the chances of the Lib Dems retaining Sutton and Cheam at 100%. I agree with David here, I have some local knowledge, as I live in the neighbouring constituency. Burstow will more than likely hold, I would say he's probably 80% likely to hold, more for Tom Brake next door. The Conservatives have done the smart thing in selecting Paul Scully as candidate, he is 'local' and Sutton & Cheam is the type of seat where being 'local' counts. I have a feeling Brake's Carshalton & Wallington will be come the safest seat for the Lib Dems in London at the next general election, not impressed with the Conservative candidate so far. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 19:03:16 GMT
Burstow will not lose. I'd also be surprised to see Labour gains in Bermondsey or Harrow East The only person who thinks he'll lose is Iain Dale as far as I'm aware. One person so far in my constituency poll thinks he will, against 13 who think he won't. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 26, 2015 21:55:44 GMT
The only person who thinks he'll lose is Iain Dale as far as I'm aware. One person so far in my constituency poll thinks he will, against 13 who think he won't. That was me but I'm not convinced. I just felt that 100% voting for a LD hold didn't really reflect the likelihood of the respective outcomes, rather like David was saying |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 24, 2015 23:57:29 GMT
Lab 42% (nc)
Con 34% (+2)
UKIP 9% (-1)
L Dem 8% (+1)
Green 7% (-1)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 25, 2015 0:03:41 GMT
Lab 42% (nc) Con 34% (+2) UKIP 9% (-1) L Dem 8% (+1) Green 7% (-1) Assuming that the 'London' the poll was conducted in is identical to the GLA boundaries, that's 3% swing from Conservative to Labour which would see Labour gain four seats: Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North, and Croydon Central (the last one very close). Difficult to predict for Liberal Democrat seats but 8% is not a total collapse. |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 25, 2015 23:49:17 GMT
Lab 42% (nc) Con 34% (+2) UKIP 9% (-1) L Dem 8% (+1) Green 7% (-1) Assuming that the 'London' the poll was conducted in is identical to the GLA boundaries, that's 3% swing from Conservative to Labour which would see Labour gain four seats: Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Enfield North, and Croydon Central (the last one very close). Difficult to predict for Liberal Democrat seats but 8% is not a total collapse. Yes, especially as I would expect our vote to be massively uneven, even more than is usual in London. |
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