graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Jun 24, 2024 19:04:50 GMT
If Faizah Shaheen polls circa 10% , the Tories havw a chance of holding Chingford & Woodford Green.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 20:57:40 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. agreed although some regard Beckenham & Penge as a notionally Labour seat |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 20:58:57 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. What we may see, however, is more complex. Yesterday's Holborn & St Pancras poll suggested Green strength in Inner London at the expense of Labour and the other parties. I suspect the Greens will finish second in Stratford & Bow and poll respectably in other parts of Inner London. Labour will, I think, do well in Outer London apart from the traditional areas of LD strength in their three Boroughs (Kingston, Sutton and Richmond). This will stretch the Conservatives across Outer London and cost them a number of seats. The seats I think will be held by the blues: Bromley & Biggin Hill Orpington Old Bexley & Sidcup Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Croydon South Hornchurch & Upminster Romford I wouldn't be surprised if Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Harrow East were also held but they are in the TCTC category for me. Just to maintain an interest, I've had the following constituency bets: Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
I can't honestly see Labour taking Bexleyheath & Crayford either. Obviously I'd like to be wrong on that. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 21:02:09 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave  To be honest, audacious would be kind - reckless and stupid would be more appropriate. I thought the redrawing of the boundaries which brought Conservative Selsdon and Shirley in with New Addington which has trended Conservative in recent years give the Conservatives a chance but clearly I'm a long way wrong on this one. The latest YouGov MRP has Labour ahead by 26. Today's London wide poll is better for the Conservatives - the YouGov MRP says six seats, I think maybe nine in London but I'm going to lose my cash on Croydon East and the concensus on here suggests Sutton & Cheam as well though I'm less convinced. As for my other London bets, I'm still hopeful four of them will come in at least. on the basis of the local election results, the Tories would have a good chance in Croydon East. Trouble is for them it isn't a local election. The result might be below average for Labour because of the record of the previous Labour council, but I don't think the Tories can realistically take the seat in current circumstances, even with the help of Selsdon. Shirley was already in the predecessor constituency of Croydon Central (and provided a very large chunk of the Tory vote in it), it's Selsdon which is new. Read my profile of the seat  |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Jun 24, 2024 21:02:15 GMT
What we may see, however, is more complex. Yesterday's Holborn & St Pancras poll suggested Green strength in Inner London at the expense of Labour and the other parties. I suspect the Greens will finish second in Stratford & Bow and poll respectably in other parts of Inner London. Labour will, I think, do well in Outer London apart from the traditional areas of LD strength in their three Boroughs (Kingston, Sutton and Richmond). This will stretch the Conservatives across Outer London and cost them a number of seats. The seats I think will be held by the blues: Bromley & Biggin Hill Orpington Old Bexley & Sidcup Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Croydon South Hornchurch & Upminster Romford I wouldn't be surprised if Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Harrow East were also held but they are in the TCTC category for me. Just to maintain an interest, I've had the following constituency bets: Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
I can't honestly see Labour taking Bexleyheath & Crayford either. Obviously I'd like to be wrong on that. The boundary redrawing has been very helpful to Labour bringing in Labour Wards from the old Erith & Thamesmead Constituency and putting the most Conservative Wards in Old Bexley & Sidcup (which on some measures could be the safest Conservative seat in London). |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 24, 2024 22:08:35 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave I am no longer allowed to make any comment which might be interpreted as a prediction about the results of the Croydon constituencies, because I have already started watching the postal votes being processed. Therefore I can also not make any comments about whether any such bet is, or is not, wise or unwise. |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 22:48:08 GMT
I can't honestly see Labour taking Bexleyheath & Crayford either. Obviously I'd like to be wrong on that. The boundary redrawing has been very helpful to Labour bringing in Labour Wards from the old Erith & Thamesmead Constituency and putting the most Conservative Wards in Old Bexley & Sidcup (which on some measures could be the safest Conservative seat in London). even so, Labour still requires a swing of slightly more than 15%, and I feel that's probably slightly too much for victory to be achieved even in this election. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Jun 25, 2024 9:27:04 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave I am no longer allowed to make any comment which might be interpreted as a prediction about the results of the Croydon constituencies, because I have already started watching the postal votes being processed. Therefore I can also not make any comments about whether any such bet is, or is not, wise or unwise. Have you actually signed a document to that effect? I l acted as a scrutineer at the Norwich North by election in July 2009 but do not recall having to do that. |
|
|
|
Post by stodge on Jun 25, 2024 9:42:36 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave I am no longer allowed to make any comment which might be interpreted as a prediction about the results of the Croydon constituencies, because I have already started watching the postal votes being processed. Therefore I can also not make any comments about whether any such bet is, or is not, wise or unwise. All I will say is my original bet on Croydon East was motivated by some of your comments and by my knowledge of the area. Adding Selsdon to Shirley and Monks Orchard would be helpful for the Conservatives and I thought the 2022 local elections indicated a move to the Conservatives in the east of the Borough. I also thought 10/1 was a silly price for a few quid - IF Labour win by 20 points, it'll be Oeuf sur Visage for Mr Stodge - if it comes in, it'll be a slap up breakfast at the little cafe in St Georges Walk where I used to go with my Mum after she'd finished shopping in Grant's (if you're a local you'll know where I mean). |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 25, 2024 20:27:10 GMT
I am no longer allowed to make any comment which might be interpreted as a prediction about the results of the Croydon constituencies, because I have already started watching the postal votes being processed. Therefore I can also not make any comments about whether any such bet is, or is not, wise or unwise. Have you actually signed a document to that effect? I l acted as a scrutineer at the Norwich North by election in July 2009 but do not recall having to do that. Yes I think it's section 66 of the something something |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
|
Post by graham on Jun 25, 2024 20:45:54 GMT
Have you actually signed a document to that effect? I l acted as a scrutineer at the Norwich North by election in July 2009 but do not recall having to do that. Yes I think it's section 66 of the something something Of course, if you went to the bookies and placed bets based on your observations, it is most unlikely that you would have been caught! |
|
