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Post by adlai52 on Apr 11, 2024 12:39:12 GMT
From Redfield Wilton London Mayoral Election VI (6-8 April): Sadiq Khan (Lab) 43% Susan Hall (Cons) 30% Zoë Garbett (Green) 10% Rob Blackie (Lib Dem) 8% Howard Cox (Reform) 7% Other 2% Underwhelming for Khan. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 11, 2024 12:45:04 GMT
From Redfield Wilton London Mayoral Election VI (6-8 April): Sadiq Khan (Lab) 43% Susan Hall (Cons) 30% Zoë Garbett (Green) 10% Rob Blackie (Lib Dem) 8% Howard Cox (Reform) 7% Other 2% Underwhelming for Khan. Note that Redfield and Wilton's most recent previous poll for London Mayor was this one from last September in which Khan had a lead of 1%. |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 11, 2024 16:47:22 GMT
London Westminster VI (6-8 April): From Redfield Wilton
Labour 51%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrat 13%
Green 7%
Reform 5%
Other 0%
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Post by robert1 on Apr 26, 2024 18:22:19 GMT
Standard Savanta
Lab Khan 46
Con Hall 33
LD Blackie 9
Grn Gorbett 7
Ref Cox 2
Fieldwork 8.4-17.4
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:49:55 GMT
This is a mayoral poll, so was already posted (and discussed) in the relevant thread/section.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 27, 2024 10:52:54 GMT
It is useful to see it juxtaposed with the poll above it though, as it shows Susan Hall running well ahead of her party in London, which seems to be at odds with the analysis of some of the more 'liberal' members and erstwhile members of that party..
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 27, 2024 11:10:36 GMT
It is useful to see it juxtaposed with the poll above it though, as it shows Susan Hall running well ahead of her party in London, which seems to be at odds with the analysis of some of the more 'liberal' members and erstwhile members of that party.. Though it seems likely that is more to do with Sadiq Khan than her. TBH I don’t think many Londoners have any knowledge about Susan Hall beyond the fact she is the Tory candidate. |
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Post by batman on Apr 27, 2024 11:13:26 GMT
It is useful to see it juxtaposed with the poll above it though, as it shows Susan Hall running well ahead of her party in London, which seems to be at odds with the analysis of some of the more 'liberal' members and erstwhile members of that party.. Though it seems likely that is more to do with Sadiq Khan than her. TBH I don’t think many Londoners have any knowledge about Susan Hall beyond the fact she is the Tory candidate. none of the Tory voters I have canvassed spoke approvingly of Hall. It was an anti-Khan vote or an I’ve-always-voted-Conservative vote every time. |
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Post by robert1 on May 1, 2024 8:35:55 GMT
Savanta- London Mayor
Con 32
Lab 42
LD 10
Grn 8
Ref 3
Fieldwork 26.4-30.4
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Post by batman on May 1, 2024 11:08:50 GMT
In general, polling both for Mayor of London & for other Metro Mayors has diverged pretty wildly, although in the case of London at least the same candidate has led in all polls. National polling both for Scotland & Britain-wide is much less divergent. Some pollsters will have entire omelettes on their faces, but who knows which ones yet.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 1, 2024 11:41:38 GMT
Its not just that the latest YouGov is different from this one, but in 2021 their final poll showed a major narrowing in Khan's lead - which has not happened this time. Savanta are, by their own admission, assuming that Tories are more motivated to vote now (as indeed they were last time round) We won't have long to find out....
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 24, 2024 9:01:08 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 9:21:23 GMT
Back to my previous post on this thread - I wonder if YouGov getting the mayoral election so wrong is a significant factor in its recent methodology change?
(even though they did better with some other contests)
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 12:26:56 GMT
An 8 and a half % swing is less than the national average, but would still be pretty good for Labour. I already have seats such as Bexleyheath and Crayford, and Ruislip Northwood and Pinner, down as Con holds and this poll suggests fairly comfortable ones. Labour will be happier still if, as is surely likely, they do better in Tory seats than in Labour-held ones. They won’t want to miss out in Chelsea and Fulham, and Uxbridge and S Ruislip, in particular but will want to bag Harrow East if possible too.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 12:36:08 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. |
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Post by stodge on Jun 24, 2024 13:04:35 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. What we may see, however, is more complex. Yesterday's Holborn & St Pancras poll suggested Green strength in Inner London at the expense of Labour and the other parties. I suspect the Greens will finish second in Stratford & Bow and poll respectably in other parts of Inner London. Labour will, I think, do well in Outer London apart from the traditional areas of LD strength in their three Boroughs (Kingston, Sutton and Richmond). This will stretch the Conservatives across Outer London and cost them a number of seats. The seats I think will be held by the blues: Bromley & Biggin Hill Orpington Old Bexley & Sidcup Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Croydon South Hornchurch & Upminster Romford I wouldn't be surprised if Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Harrow East were also held but they are in the TCTC category for me. Just to maintain an interest, I've had the following constituency bets: Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 13:07:48 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. What we may see, however, is more complex. Yesterday's Holborn & St Pancras poll suggested Green strength in Inner London at the expense of Labour and the other parties. I suspect the Greens will finish second in Stratford & Bow and poll respectably in other parts of Inner London. Labour will, I think, do well in Outer London apart from the traditional areas of LD strength in their three Boroughs (Kingston, Sutton and Richmond). This will stretch the Conservatives across Outer London and cost them a number of seats. The seats I think will be held by the blues: Bromley & Biggin Hill Orpington Old Bexley & Sidcup Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Croydon South Hornchurch & Upminster Romford I wouldn't be surprised if Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Harrow East were also held but they are in the TCTC category for me. Just to maintain an interest, I've had the following constituency bets: Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
I think if they were better organised, Reform could win Hornchurch & Upminster and Romford. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 24, 2024 16:30:16 GMT
On those figures, Labour gain Beckenham & Penge, Chingford & Woodford Green, Chipping Barnet, Eltham & Chislehurst; Harrow East, Hendon, Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and they are almost certainly Chelsea & Fulham, Ciites of London & Westminster and Finchley & Golders Green too due to the Lib Dem unwind. I think. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon. What we may see, however, is more complex. Yesterday's Holborn & St Pancras poll suggested Green strength in Inner London at the expense of Labour and the other parties. I suspect the Greens will finish second in Stratford & Bow and poll respectably in other parts of Inner London. Labour will, I think, do well in Outer London apart from the traditional areas of LD strength in their three Boroughs (Kingston, Sutton and Richmond). This will stretch the Conservatives across Outer London and cost them a number of seats. The seats I think will be held by the blues: Bromley & Biggin Hill Orpington Old Bexley & Sidcup Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner Croydon South Hornchurch & Upminster Romford I wouldn't be surprised if Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Harrow East were also held but they are in the TCTC category for me. Just to maintain an interest, I've had the following constituency bets: Harrow East – CON 9/4
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner – CON 4/5
Bromley & Biggin Hill – CON 11/8
Croydon East – CON 10/1
Croydon South – CON 2/1
Sutton & Cheam – LD 11/10
Romford – CON 6/4
A 2.5% Tory - Lib Dem swing would surely see the blues hold Sutton & Cheam? Although tactical voting might see the Lib Dems over the line (but that's at the expense of their vote falling more elsewhere). |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 24, 2024 17:50:58 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave  |
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Post by stodge on Jun 24, 2024 18:06:05 GMT
That Croydon E bet is...interesting. Predicting a Con gain anywhere (on current polling) is brave To be honest, audacious would be kind - reckless and stupid would be more appropriate. I thought the redrawing of the boundaries which brought Conservative Selsdon and Shirley in with New Addington which has trended Conservative in recent years give the Conservatives a chance but clearly I'm a long way wrong on this one. The latest YouGov MRP has Labour ahead by 26. Today's London wide poll is better for the Conservatives - the YouGov MRP says six seats, I think maybe nine in London but I'm going to lose my cash on Croydon East and the concensus on here suggests Sutton & Cheam as well though I'm less convinced. As for my other London bets, I'm still hopeful four of them will come in at least. |
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