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Post by bigfatron on Sept 9, 2023 6:44:41 GMT
Redfield and Wilton London Westminster VI (4-6 September): Labour 47% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 17% Green 4% Reform 4% Other 1% Since 2019, that would be Lab -1 Con -5 LD +2 Green +1 I guess that'd give Labour Chingford, Kensington & Bayswater, a near sweep of the Barnet seats, and possibly Cities of London & Westminster. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon on the numbers. I think we'd see tactical voting by Lib Dems in Cities, and by Labour in Wimbledon. Davıd Boothroyd would know more about how much shift from Lib Dem to Labour we likely see in Cities of London & Westminster. So, in sum, the Tories would probably lose six constituencies in London on these figures, with a 2% swing to Labour. It may depend on whether ex-MP Emma Dent Coad stands in Kensington & Bayswater, but idk how well she'd do. Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge & South Ruislip would take some relief from these headline figures - he'd hold on. Lib Dem’s would also take Carshalton on these numbers. I agree on both Wimbledon (Lib Dem) and Cities of London & Westminster (Labour) |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 6:46:53 GMT
I guess that'd give Labour Chingford, Kensington & Bayswater, a near sweep of the Barnet seats, and possibly Cities of London & Westminster. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon on the numbers. I think we'd see tactical voting by Lib Dems in Cities, and by Labour in Wimbledon. Davıd Boothroyd would know more about how much shift from Lib Dem to Labour we likely see in Cities of London & Westminster. So, in sum, the Tories would probably lose six constituencies in London on these figures, with a 2% swing to Labour. It may depend on whether ex-MP Emma Dent Coad stands in Kensington & Bayswater, but idk how well she'd do. Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge & South Ruislip would take some relief from these headline figures - he'd hold on. Lib Dem’s would also take Carshalton on these numbers. I agree on both Wimbledon (Lib Dem) and Cities of London & Westminster (Labour) Yep. I'm nervy re: Carshalton because 1) Labour underperform there somewhat; 2) its was a bit more Brexity than many old LD seats. |
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 9, 2023 6:48:52 GMT
Lib Dem’s would also take Carshalton on these numbers. I agree on both Wimbledon (Lib Dem) and Cities of London & Westminster (Labour) Yep. I'm nervy re: Carshalton because 1) Labour underperform there somewhat; 2) its was a bit more Brexity than many old LD seats. I could see ULEZ resonating there as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 6:53:29 GMT
Yep. I'm nervy re: Carshalton because 1) Labour underperform there somewhat; 2) its was a bit more Brexity than many old LD seats. I could see ULEZ resonating there as well. Yes and the Tories will ensure every man and his dog in Carshalton know that the Lib Dem GLA members backed ULEZ creeping into Sutton LB. I don't think the Lib Dems are going to win back Sutton & Cheam or Carshalton, unless the Tories really do fuck up or ULEZ is cancelled soon. I also think there'll be a small (or no) swing to the Lib Dems in Kingston & Surbiton because 1) highest council tax in London in 2022; 2) ULEZ. It's extremely unlikely to work, but the Tories should try and keep Davey campaigning in his own patch by trying a decapitation strategy in K&S. |
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Post by batman on Sept 9, 2023 7:33:00 GMT
In a constituency with, currently, no Conservative councillors at all it would be amazing if Ed Davey were in the slightest difficulty. He has a good reputation as a constituency MP quite apart from the Tories' local travails.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 9, 2023 7:44:32 GMT
In a constituency with, currently, no Conservative councillors at all it would be amazing if Ed Davey were in the slightest difficulty. He has a good reputation as a constituency MP quite apart from the Tories' local travails. Issues like ULEZ might hurt him in the Chessington end of the seat (and at a push, parts of the Maldens and in Tolworth). These areas demographically are more like Sutton or Epsom than the more stereotypical parts of the borough close to the Thames. However, this is only quite a small minority of the seat (and it's quite possible the opposite would occur in Kingston itself which would cancel out the effect). |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 7:56:52 GMT
In a constituency with, currently, no Conservative councillors at all it would be amazing if Ed Davey were in the slightest difficulty. He has a good reputation as a constituency MP quite apart from the Tories' local travails. Of course, but it's a seat that has had big swings in recent times (2001, 2015, 2019). He's been standing there for near on 30 years, so he's not going down in 2024, but if you're a Tory activist, you want him the hell away from Conservative - Lib Dem marginals, since he resonates with a lot of folks in the Home Counties etc. |
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Post by borisminor on Sept 27, 2023 8:27:22 GMT
JL Partners London Mayor Poll 09/09-21/09 Khan (Lab) - 35% Hall (Con) - 32% Blackie (LD) - 5% Garbett (Green) - 5% Cox (Ref) - 8% Other - 2% DK - 12% With Corbyn Khan (Lab) - 33% Hall (Con) - 31% Blackie (LD) - 5% Garbett (Green) - 6% Cox (Ref) - 7% Corbyn (Ind) - 5% Other - 2% WNV - 1% DK - 10% jlpartners.com/polling-results |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 27, 2023 9:35:46 GMT
Remarkable. Khan is really that bad he could lose an unlosable election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:06:18 GMT
No, he's not that popular. But its still interesting that Corbyn doesn't win it for Hall in this one.
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Post by akmd on Sept 27, 2023 12:16:43 GMT
Remarkable. Khan is really that bad he could lose an unlosable election. Fortunately, Susan Hall is his main challenger. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Sept 27, 2023 13:28:30 GMT
Remarkable. Khan is really that bad he could lose an unlosable election. Fortunately, Susan Hall is his main challenger. Shaun Baliey should have had another crack |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 27, 2023 14:53:38 GMT
Remarkable. Khan is really that bad he could lose an unlosable election. Fortunately, Susan Hall is his main challenger. I like half a dozen tweets on a typical day. Why am I going to be able to remember specifically if I have 'liked' a prticular tweet? |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 6, 2023 19:25:05 GMT
LAB: 55% (+2)
CON: 20% (-3)
LDM: 9% (-5)
GRN: 9% (+5)
RFM: 4% (+1)
Via @yougov, 12-17 Oct.
Changes w/ 27-31 Mar.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 6, 2023 20:08:04 GMT
LAB: 55% (+2) CON: 20% (-3) LDM: 9% (-5) GRN: 9% (+5) RFM: 4% (+1) Via @yougov, 12-17 Oct. Changes w/ 27-31 Mar. That makes much more sense. But I've seen this poll (or at least Tory/Labour shares) reported as Greens 11 Lib Dem 7. Is this the same poll? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 7, 2023 13:04:13 GMT
There was a London mayoral poll released simultaneously, so maybe that one?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 7, 2023 17:12:01 GMT
LAB: 55% (+2) CON: 20% (-3) LDM: 9% (-5) GRN: 9% (+5) RFM: 4% (+1) Via @yougov, 12-17 Oct. Changes w/ 27-31 Mar. Is that for the assembly (and if so constituency or list) or London Westminster seats? |
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Post by andrewp on Nov 7, 2023 17:57:19 GMT
LAB: 55% (+2) CON: 20% (-3) LDM: 9% (-5) GRN: 9% (+5) RFM: 4% (+1) Via @yougov, 12-17 Oct. Changes w/ 27-31 Mar. Is that for the assembly (and if so constituency or list) or London Westminster seats? Sorry. For London Westminster seats. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2023 18:14:10 GMT
There was a London mayoral poll released simultaneously, so maybe that one? They are from the same poll, yes. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 27, 2024 11:23:08 GMT
London Mayoral Voting Intention:
Khan (LAB): 49% (-1)
Hall (CON): 24% (-1)
Garbett (GRN): 9% (-2)
Blackie (LDM): 8% (+1)
Cox (RFM): 7% (+3)
Via @yougov, 12-19 Feb.
Changes w/ 12-17 Oct.
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