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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 5, 2015 10:23:56 GMT
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Post by independentukip on Mar 5, 2015 16:04:08 GMT
UKIP is said to be no change in the newspaper but is up 1 compared with the last poll quoted by Devonian.
Also, unusually, the gender split for UKIP is 9% Male and 12% Female.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 5, 2015 17:32:50 GMT
The changes appear to be comparing this poll to the one in January, and disregarding the one in late February - possibly on grounds that it wasn't commissioned by the Standard.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 5, 2015 20:38:50 GMT
UKIP is said to be no change in the newspaper but is up 1 compared with the last poll quoted by Devonian. Also, unusually, the gender split for UKIP is 9% Male and 12% Female. That gender split would be disadventageous for UKIP unless catered for in the weighting. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 31, 2015 13:37:14 GMT
Earlier this week we had a ComRes London poll showing Lab 46, C 32, UKIP 9, L Dem 8, GP 4.
Now comes YouGov with Lab 45, C 34, L Dem 8, UKIP 8, GP 4.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
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Post by iain on Mar 31, 2015 14:41:07 GMT
Looking at locals and constituency polls Labour look unlikely to gain Harrow East or Ilford North, and the only 'surprise' gains which look possible are Bermondsey (and whether this would be a surprise is debatable) and Enfield Southgate.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 31, 2015 14:48:17 GMT
Labour is putting in a big effort in Harrow East and Bermondsey, but I've barely heard anything about Southgate.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,055
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 31, 2015 14:48:35 GMT
With these big Labour leads across London, I wonder if one or two seats might flip that no-one was expecting? It all depends on where the big Labour increase is coming from. I'd expect a lot of it to be coming from us in places where we got decent second or third places last time, ie still miles behind but a good 15-25% of the vote, where our vote will completely crash which for the most part will make a Labour seat just even safer. If that is the case then it's not going to help gain some unlikely Tory seats even with that lead. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2015 15:08:56 GMT
Ilford North is far from out of reach for Labour IMO, the locals are a bit misleading there.
Finchley is the other outside bet, I think that Battersea is unwinnable for us this time round at least.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 31, 2015 16:14:43 GMT
With these big Labour leads across London, I wonder if one or two seats might flip that no-one was expecting? It all depends on where the big Labour increase is coming from. I'd expect a lot of it to be coming from us in places where we got decent second or third places last time, ie still miles behind but a good 15-25% of the vote, where our vote will completely crash which for the most part will make a Labour seat just even safer. If that is the case then it's not going to help gain some unlikely Tory seats even with that lead. Where it's coming from the Lib Dems, it probably doesn't matter how distant you were. It's liable to crater as much in Islington South as in Tottenham. But yes, this might minimise the advantages of a strong lead - unless our potential gains there has been mitigated by losses to the Greens and our lead is instead coming from strong performances in the marginals. But without properly weighted subsamples, it's impossible to be sure. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,057
Member is Online
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 31, 2015 16:25:40 GMT
It's worth pointing out that the swings being shown in London polls typically aren't *that* much larger than being shown nationally, though there's no doubt that a few extra percent is useful.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 31, 2015 16:46:28 GMT
It's worth pointing out that the swings being shown in London polls typically aren't *that* much larger than being shown nationally, though there's no doubt that a few extra percent is useful. Quite. The Standard article referred to a 'stark contrast' with the national polls whereas this poll suggests a Con-Lab swing of 6% compared with around a 3-4% swing in most current national polls |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2015 17:31:19 GMT
With these big Labour leads across London, I wonder if one or two seats might flip that no-one was expecting? If any 'unexpected' seats flip it will be because they are anticipated by someone! But I think a couple of 'surprisingly' close seconds are more likely. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2015 17:34:35 GMT
Labour is putting in a big effort in Harrow East and Bermondsey, but I've barely heard anything about Southgate. What about Battersea? |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 6, 2015 11:12:49 GMT
Latest YouGov Evening Standard Poll for London
Labour 46 (+2)
Conservative 33 (+1)
LD 9 (+1)
UKIP 8 (-2)
Green 3 (-2)
A swing of 5.5% Con to Lab
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on May 6, 2015 13:00:58 GMT
I am spectacularly unconvinced of the value of regional polls and in London it is probably even more useless than elsewhere. I suspect that the swing is going to vary considerably in different parts of London.
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Post by greenchristian on May 6, 2015 14:00:29 GMT
I am spectacularly unconvinced of the value of regional polls and in London it is probably even more useless than elsewhere. I suspect that the swing is going to vary considerably in different parts of London. They were of some use before we had an array of constituency polling (albeit more in regions like the South West and Scotland where there are very different voting patterns to the rest of the UK). But now, they're only really useful for confirming the picture constituency polling gives us. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 31, 2017 13:22:37 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 31, 2017 13:28:02 GMT
The best bit about that is that he is even more unpopular than Nuttall.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2017 14:07:42 GMT
I think we already have a thread for London polls.
And can't pollsters think of something else more interesting to tell us than "Corbyn is unpopular"? They must be well aware of that on Mars by now.
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