|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 31, 2017 14:32:39 GMT
Fixed the changes from 2015 GE |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2017 14:52:06 GMT
I've merged this into an existing thread on YG London polls, and renamed "London polls" in case anyone else ever does one.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 31, 2017 15:13:19 GMT
The fact that Labour is still ahead in London despite a double digit deficit nationwide goes to show:
- how far leftwards the city has been drifting over the past few decades.
- reflects demographic change over the past few decades.
- reflects the relative popularity between Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone in 2008 and 2012.
As for Corbyn's unpopularity. I didn't mention this specifically, but in the most recent YouGov poll he has now actually fallen behind Mrs. May among Labour supporters.
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Mar 31, 2017 15:22:39 GMT
The fact that Labour is still ahead in London despite a double digit deficit nationwide goes to show: - how far leftwards the city has been drifting over the past few decades. - reflects demographic change over the past few decades. - reflects the relative popularity between Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone in 2008 and 2012. As for Corbyn's unpopularity. I didn't mention this specifically, but in the most recent YouGov poll he has now actually fallen behind Mrs. May among Labour supporters. I think that it is more that it is just 'Foreign' rather than overtly left-wing. Many still have client relationship to the Labour facilitator they see to have been their conduit into being in and remaining in Britain. |
|
|
|
Post by tonygreaves on Mar 31, 2017 18:37:41 GMT
Silly remark.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 31, 2017 18:42:19 GMT
Is this a place holder in the style of Australian swing voter? |
|
|
|
Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 14, 2017 10:51:10 GMT
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453 
|
Post by iain on Apr 14, 2017 11:02:36 GMT
Change from 2015:
Conservative +-0%
Labour -13%
Lib Dem +12%
UKIP +1%
Green -1%
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,453
|
Post by iain on Apr 14, 2017 11:15:35 GMT
Those numbers on electoral calculus would give:
Con gains:
Brentford & Isleworth
Ealing Central & Acton
Eltham
Enfield North
Hampstead & Kilburn
Harrow West
Ilford North
Tooting
Westminster North
LD gains:
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Hornsey & Wood Green
Kingston & Surbiton
Twickenham
UKIP gains:
Dagenham & Rainham
|
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Apr 14, 2017 12:54:15 GMT
It's a subsample... 198 (weighted) respondents, 156 unweighted.
|
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on Apr 14, 2017 13:23:21 GMT
It's a subsample... 198 (weighted) respondents, 156 unweighted. Nothing with less than 200 (real) respondents is of any value. Anthony Wells is perpetually warning people on UK polling report to take no notice of sub samples. |
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Apr 14, 2017 13:28:53 GMT
It's a subsample... 198 (weighted) respondents, 156 unweighted. Nothing with less than 200 (real) respondents is of any value. Anthony Wells is perpetually warning people on UK polling report to take no notice of sub samples. According to the ComRes margin of error calculator, the MoE for this subsample would be 7-8%. Also worth noting the volatility of the London subsamples in YouGov polls.  |
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Apr 14, 2017 15:00:30 GMT
Those numbers on electoral calculus would give: Con gains: Brentford & Isleworth Ealing Central & Acton Eltham Enfield North Hampstead & Kilburn Harrow West Ilford North Tooting Westminster North LD gains: Bermondsey & Old Southwark Hornsey & Wood Green Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham UKIP gains: Dagenham & Rainham FWIW Lib Dems also gain Sutton and Cheam |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 14, 2017 15:05:21 GMT
Seriously, citing sub-samples as if they are in any way meaningful is deserving of censure.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Apr 15, 2017 7:08:20 GMT
Seriously, citing sub-samples as if they are in any way meaningful is deserving of censure. Indeed. Their only use is to help work out whether an unusual poll is more likely to be an outlier, a rogue, or a new trend. And even then, it's far more accurate to wait for other polls to confirm or deny the unusual result. |
|
Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
|
Post by Tom on May 10, 2017 11:02:18 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 10, 2017 11:30:09 GMT
Compared to 2015 general election - Lab 43.7% Con 34.9% LD 7.7% UKIP 8.1% Green 4.9% Oth 0.8% Labour holding up well in London, as expected. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2017 12:19:13 GMT
Surprising to see UKIP that high. Those aren't good numbers for the Lib Dems- that would imply that their vote will be very tightly clustered in certain seats and a desert elsewhere.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
|
Post by The Bishop on May 10, 2017 12:25:05 GMT
Sorry to mention this, but there is already a thread for London polls?
(and a glance at that will reveal this is actually a slight improvement in Labour's position since the previous survey)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 10, 2017 12:32:42 GMT
Moved into London polls from the YG thread.
|
|
