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Post by AdminSTB on May 10, 2017 13:15:32 GMT
Surprising to see UKIP that high. Those aren't good numbers for the Lib Dems- that would imply that their vote will be very tightly clustered in certain seats and a desert elsewhere. You say that as if its a bad thing. It's not for the LibDems. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 10, 2017 13:40:04 GMT
From last poll: Labour +4% Conservative +2% Lib Dem +-0 UKIP -3% Green -2% |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2017 13:54:44 GMT
Surprising to see UKIP that high. Those aren't good numbers for the Lib Dems- that would imply that their vote will be very tightly clustered in certain seats and a desert elsewhere. You say that as if its a bad thing. It's not for the LibDems. Not for seats, but at the same time, they don't really want a lot of lost deposits. A few points higher and you'd imagine it wouldn't be the case. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 10, 2017 14:02:15 GMT
Surprising to see UKIP that high. Those aren't good numbers for the Lib Dems- that would imply that their vote will be very tightly clustered in certain seats and a desert elsewhere. That has long been the case with the Lib Dem vote in London (as elsewhere) but I don't know how you can make that assumption anyway from the overall figure and in fact 14% is very good for them in London compared with their national standing and probably does imply a good recovery for them in places like Streatham and even a modest increase in the likes of Battersea. If anything the danger for them is that the increase is fairly uniform |
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 10, 2017 14:09:13 GMT
As the Tories aren't doing so well here, they must be doing even better elsewhere. Labour's screwed in the North I think.
In regards to the Lib Dems, 14% isn't bad for them. The question is, is this a uniform rise or a concentrated one? Based on the local elections I would say uniform and that is not good news for them if that is the case.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 10, 2017 14:09:26 GMT
The notable thing here isn't the Labour vote (the changes in which from last time fit broadly within the national picture) but the Conservative vote. I suppose both of these things make sense. O/c it is important not to extrapolate too much...
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 10, 2017 15:55:38 GMT
Most of the Conservative gains have been from UKIP and Labour voters who support Brexit, with not much UKIP and a strong remain vote in the capital they have less to gain and quite a bit to lose (middle class remoaners).
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on May 10, 2017 16:11:57 GMT
Most of the Conservative gains have been from UKIP and Labour voters who support Brexit, with not much UKIP and a strong remain vote in the capital they have less to gain and quite a bit to lose (middle class remoaners). Not you too... |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 10, 2017 16:47:37 GMT
If our rise is clustered in say Carshaltkn, Bermondsey, Twickenham et al grand.
If in Uxbridge. Shit.
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Post by marksenior on May 10, 2017 17:07:19 GMT
As the Tories aren't doing so well here, they must be doing even better elsewhere. Labour's screwed in the North I think. In regards to the Lib Dems, 14% isn't bad for them. The question is, is this a uniform rise or a concentrated one? Based on the local elections I would say uniform and that is not good news for them if that is the case. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in the local elections was far from uniform . North of and including Lincs , Notts and Staffs the rise compared to 2013 was around 2% , in counties south of there the rise was an average of 7% . Compared to 2015 the variation was even higher . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2017 21:42:29 GMT
Surprising to see UKIP that high. Those aren't good numbers for the Lib Dems- that would imply that their vote will be very tightly clustered in certain seats and a desert elsewhere. That has long been the case with the Lib Dem vote in London (as elsewhere) but I don't know how you can make that assumption anyway from the overall figure and in fact 14% is very good for them in London compared with their national standing and probably does imply a good recovery for them in places like Streatham and even a modest increase in the likes of Battersea. If anything the danger for them is that the increase is fairly uniform They are definitely going up significantly in no hoper seats in Wandsworth. It feels on the doorstep like they are competing for 2nd in Putney at about 20% of the vote. May be very different on the day. If the Lib Dems are doing this well in London, they are not making any progress at all in the rest of the country on average. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2017 21:45:18 GMT
As the Tories aren't doing so well here, they must be doing even better elsewhere. Labour's screwed in the North I think. In regards to the Lib Dems, 14% isn't bad for them. The question is, is this a uniform rise or a concentrated one? Based on the local elections I would say uniform and that is not good news for them if that is the case. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in the local elections was far from uniform . North of and including Lincs , Notts and Staffs the rise compared to 2013 was around 2% , in counties south of there the rise was an average of 7% . Compared to 2015 the variation was even higher . But 42 councillors net loss |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 10, 2017 21:50:33 GMT
That has long been the case with the Lib Dem vote in London (as elsewhere) but I don't know how you can make that assumption anyway from the overall figure and in fact 14% is very good for them in London compared with their national standing and probably does imply a good recovery for them in places like Streatham and even a modest increase in the likes of Battersea. If anything the danger for them is that the increase is fairly uniform They are definitely going up significantly in no hoper seats in Wandsworth. It feels on the doorstep like they are competing for 2nd in Putney at about 20% of the vote. May be very different on the day. If the Lib Dems are doing this well in London, they are not making any progress at all in the rest of the country on average. That's certainly a worry, especially if it is limited to those parts of London that you mention. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 10, 2017 22:00:26 GMT
The rise in the Lib Dem vote in the local elections was far from uniform . North of and including Lincs , Notts and Staffs the rise compared to 2013 was around 2% , in counties south of there the rise was an average of 7% . Compared to 2015 the variation was even higher . But 42 councillors net loss Yes, because the Conservative vote rose by more than the Lib Dem vote. The London poll suggests the LD vote has risen more in London than the Con vote. |
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Post by marksenior on May 10, 2017 22:16:54 GMT
The rise in the Lib Dem vote in the local elections was far from uniform . North of and including Lincs , Notts and Staffs the rise compared to 2013 was around 2% , in counties south of there the rise was an average of 7% . Compared to 2015 the variation was even higher . But 42 councillors net loss True but quite a few gains too . Note for example Somerset CC Blackdown and Neroche 2013 result LD 1035 Con 988 Others 30% 2017 result Con 1556 LD 1414 Others 10% Now of course we really want to know what would the votes have been in the 2015 GE ,Well the DC elections tell us 2015 GE Con 57% LD 24% UKIP 19% |
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 1, 2017 11:51:05 GMT
YouGov:
Labour - 50% (+9%)
Conservative - 33% (-3%)
Lib Dem - 11% (-3%)
UKIP - 3% (-3%)
Green - 2% (-1%)
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 1, 2017 12:10:13 GMT
YouGov: Labour - 50% (+9%) Conservative - 33% (-3%) Lib Dem - 11% (-3%) UKIP - 3% (-3%) Green - 2% (-1%) Change from 2015: Labour +6% Conservative -2% Lib Dem +3% UKIP -5% Green -3% |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 1, 2017 13:00:51 GMT
YouGov: Labour - 50% (+9%) Conservative - 33% (-3%) Lib Dem - 11% (-3%) UKIP - 3% (-3%) Green - 2% (-1%) Change from 2015: Labour +6% Conservative -2% Lib Dem +3% UKIP -5% Green -3% The Tories are fortunate that they're only defending two seats in London against Labour with a majority of less than 8%, Croydon Central and Hendon. And since Hendon has a majority of 7.5% and is located in Barnet it would be surprising if they lost it, which just leaves Croydon Central. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 1, 2017 16:00:57 GMT
Let's say You Gov's national (high level) and London polls are correct.
If a vast number of Labour votes are being cast in London, what will the landscape is outside London look like for them?
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 1, 2017 16:06:07 GMT
Let's say You Gov's national (high level) and London polls are correct. If a vast number of Labour votes are being cast in London, what will the landscape is outside London look like for them? According to YouGov Labour's vote is up 6% in London (on 2015), which is pretty close to where they have them nationally. In Wales the latest poll suggests an increase of 9%, in Scotland pretty much where they were last time. Would be interesting to see a specific poll for the West Midlands, or North East. |
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