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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 21, 2018 11:22:33 GMT
Local
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 21, 2018 11:24:38 GMT
Well, if anything like that actually happens......
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Post by robbienicoll on Feb 21, 2018 11:37:58 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 21, 2018 11:40:58 GMT
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065 
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Post by jamie on Feb 21, 2018 11:42:31 GMT
Compared to general election 2017:
Labour - -0.6%
Conservatives - -5.2%
Lib Dems - +2.2%
Greens - +2.2%
UKIP - +0.7%
Not looking good for the Tories...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2018 12:06:29 GMT
Change from YouGov poll in September:
Lab +1
Con -1
LDem -1
Others (-)
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 21, 2018 13:00:32 GMT
Holy sheeet. Still think Hillingdon is more likely than Westminster though.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720
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Post by Jack on Feb 21, 2018 13:38:48 GMT
I mean, what?
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 21, 2018 13:43:39 GMT
Tories still doing better with C2DE (Working class) across both white and BAME voters.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Feb 21, 2018 13:51:12 GMT
They also polled Westminster voting intention as well, change since the last polling September 2017
Lab=53 (-2%)
CON=33%(+3%)
Lib=8%(0%)
Grn=3%(+1%)
ukip=2%(-1%)
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 21, 2018 14:30:48 GMT
Internals from YouGov polls have negative value.
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 21, 2018 15:08:07 GMT
Tories still doing better with C2DE (Working class) across both white and BAME voters. There are few white-working class voters in most inner London boroughs these days of course. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2018 15:47:19 GMT
Hillingdon requires a 5% swing. The swing in outer london is just below that
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Post by kitesurfer on Feb 22, 2018 0:30:24 GMT
It’s not the end of the world for the Tories long term if Labour have massive poll leads in London, especially in the parts of London with large numbers of ethnic minority voters. London has now firmly established itself as the new heartland for Labour. They are essentially piling up unnecessary leads where there are not that many new constituencies to gain and relatively few new councils to win.
Labour would much prefer it if their marginal national poll lead over the Tories was more concentrated in the marginals across the U.K and that does not appear to be the case.
We are used to looking at London for having large numbers of bellweather seats, especially in the run up to the 1997 and 2010 elections, but it has now become what the North West used to be. Although it is interesting how London has drifted away from the Tories, they can still win general elections by focusing on the rest of the country.
Although places like Wandsworth remained firmly Tory in the 90s, the changing political landscape (Brexit in particular) means that the potential loss of Wandsworth this year does not mean the party cannot win general elections.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 22, 2018 10:14:17 GMT
Internals from YouGov polls have negative value. More generally, the fact that nearly all pensioners fall into the "C2DE" category grossly distorts that group given the current age divide in politics. The working class - "white" or otherwise - now needs to be split into under and over 65 for the figures to have any real meaning. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2018 11:46:08 GMT
I'm not sure I agree. Conservatives have won majorities when theyve won seats in London like Croydon, Battersea, etc. Barnet and Westminister have never been held by Labour. They still might not be. But you can't pretend that wouldnt be a bad result for the Tories
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,065
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Post by jamie on Feb 22, 2018 16:39:12 GMT
Agreed. There are currently quite a few marginals in London that both sides should want. The Tories probably don't need to win over ethnic minorities or the 'liberal elite', but the more suburban areas of London are still important.
Also, the talk of the Conservatives 'needing' London is not the right debate. If they can gain votes in London without losses elsewhere then this would definitely be the right strategy. But if gaining votes in London means losing them elsewhere, then nothing's really changed. Ultimately, talk of 1 of the 2 major parties becoming long-term unelectable is usually rubbish. They will end up either changing themselves or the electorate will get sick of the incumbents.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 22, 2018 22:31:59 GMT
Slightly lazy report on that poll in the Times today. Suggesting the Tory ‘stronghold’ of Barnet May fall. Not sure how a majority of 3 is a stronghold. Then says that the ‘Tories were in trouble in 5 council areas’
The article only considers 2 Tory boroughs safe - Bexley and Bromley.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2018 11:53:06 GMT
Of course before 2014 Redbridge had never been won by Labour either.
The only ones that haven't been are
Barnet
Bromley
Kensington & Chelsea
Kingston
Richmond
Sutton
Westminster
On the other side the Conservatives have never won
Barking & Dagenham
Newham
Southwark
Tower Hamlets
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,720
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Post by Jack on May 1, 2018 23:36:04 GMT
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