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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 10, 2018 12:17:22 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2018 14:39:49 GMT
dunno why changes are from GE there have been half a dozen London YouGov polls since the GE |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Sept 10, 2018 21:51:08 GMT
dunno why changes are from GE there have been half a dozen London YouGov polls since the GE Labour Gaining Chipping Barnet, in the present climate? |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Sept 11, 2018 10:43:23 GMT
dunno why changes are from GE there have been half a dozen London YouGov polls since the GE Labour Gaining Chipping Barnet, in the present climate? It isn't as Jewish as you think, indeed muslims outnumber Jews there unlike the other 2 Barnet seats. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2018 10:53:50 GMT
Labour Gaining Chipping Barnet, in the present climate? It isn't as Jewish as you think, indeed muslims outnumber Jews there unlike the other 2 Barnet seats. isnt Childs Hill in the seat or have I got that wrong |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Sept 11, 2018 10:58:38 GMT
It isn't as Jewish as you think, indeed muslims outnumber Jews there unlike the other 2 Barnet seats. isnt Childs Hill in the seat or have I got that wrong No, it's in F & GG |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2018 11:05:17 GMT
These projections are always done on uniform swing. If Labour fail to pick up that seat there may well be a more difficult one on paper that falls instead. It is always possible that the LD rise isn't evenly distributed as well. In the end Election Maps aren't going to declare that a particular seat isn't going to go a particular way for a local reason. With Labour even in May at least managing to win councillors in 4 of the 7 wards in the constituency, and winning 2 outright, it isn't all that far-fetched; its demography as has often been pointed out isn't all that similar to the other 2 Barnet seats, and we're not just talking about Jewish voters here which is what you mean. there is actually a small swing to Labour in inner London |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 11, 2018 11:39:10 GMT
Chilling Barnet was incredibly close in the council elections (basically the same as general election 2017) so it could be the 1st to fall in London.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 11, 2018 12:45:48 GMT
Chilling Barnet was incredibly close in the council elections (basically the same as general election 2017) so it could be the 1st to fall in London. Chilling thought. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 11, 2018 16:27:28 GMT
Chilling Barnet was incredibly close in the council elections (basically the same as general election 2017) so it could be the 1st to fall in London. is Chilling Barnet twinned with Freezywater in Enfield? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 12, 2018 9:20:31 GMT
Chilling Barnet was incredibly close in the council elections (basically the same as general election 2017) so it could be the 1st to fall in London. is Chilling Barnet twinned with Freezywater in Enfield? Coldharbour in Lambeth? (Other Coldharbours are available). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2018 14:34:14 GMT
Labour Gaining Chipping Barnet, in the present climate? It isn't as Jewish as you think, indeed muslims outnumber Jews there unlike the other 2 Barnet seats. Indeed. This is why it's a hyper-marginal seat already and the other Barnet seats aren't. I'd say it's the most likely seat to be lost by the Tories, though Richmond Park is more marginal I'd expect by-election unwind to mean Zac holds. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 12, 2018 21:08:09 GMT
is Chilling Barnet twinned with Freezywater in Enfield? Coldharbour in Lambeth? (Other Coldharbours are available). Cold Comfort Constituency. Something Nasty in the Ward! |
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Sept 12, 2018 21:32:37 GMT
It isn't as Jewish as you think, indeed muslims outnumber Jews there unlike the other 2 Barnet seats. Indeed. This is why it's a hyper-marginal seat already and the other Barnet seats aren't. I'd say it's the most likely seat to be lost by the Tories, though Richmond Park is more marginal I'd expect by-election unwind to mean Zac holds.The Labour vote there is very squeezable. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2018 22:02:59 GMT
Indeed. This is why it's a hyper-marginal seat already and the other Barnet seats aren't. I'd say it's the most likely seat to be lost by the Tories, though Richmond Park is more marginal I'd expect by-election unwind to mean Zac holds.The Labour vote there is very squeezable. hasnt it been squeezed |
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Sept 12, 2018 22:10:55 GMT
The Labour vote there is very squeezable. hasnt it been squeezed It was squeezed in the by-election, but at the general, the Labour vote in Richmond Park went up by six points. Given how tight the result was, expect plenty of 'can't win here' Focus leaflets at the next election. |
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 17, 2018 14:36:45 GMT
It was squeezed in the by-election, but at the general, the Labour vote in Richmond Park went up by six points. Given how tight the result was, expect plenty of 'can't win here' Focus leaflets at the next election. The last time Labour got 40% in a General Election, in 2001, they got 11.3% in Richmond Park, with Jenny Tonge winning.
I would say 9.1% in 2017 is about as much as the Lib Dems can squeeze the Labour vote in a General election with Labour on 40% + Considering the Lib Dems were on 17% in 2001, it is a pretty good performance (and obviously if the Tories had been on 32% in 2017, Sarah Olney would have won easily).
If there is a national swing from Con to Lib Dem at the next election the Lib Dems should win (although never underestimate a Goldsmith...)
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Dec 11, 2018 16:09:10 GMT
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Dec 11, 2018 17:03:22 GMT
Good to see Sian Berry polling strongly, on course for a good third place again. |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 11, 2018 19:08:49 GMT
To be fair, Benita has only just been selected and has yet to establish much of a profile. Berry is already an Assembly member. Given recent Lib Dem vs Green by election results in London, Berry's lead may not last all the way. But we shall see.
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