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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 16:32:45 GMT
Incumbent- Andy Burnham, Labour and Cooperative.
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 11, 2023 17:48:45 GMT
I’m surprised you bothered to put up a poll for this one, Neil. But any excuse to vote can’t be a bad thing. :-)
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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 17:51:31 GMT
Yeah I don't think there will be any surprises here, but who doesn't like to vote!
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Post by carolus on Aug 11, 2023 18:32:27 GMT
2021:
Lab 473,024 (67.1%) Con 137,753 (19.6%) Grn 30,699 (4.4%) LD 22,373 (3.2%) Reform 18,910 (2.7%) English Democrat 9,488 (1.4%) Ind 6,448 (0.9%) Ind 2,182 (0.3%) Ind 1,907 (0.3%)
Turnout 34.7%
Lab's best borough was Manchester (77.3%), and their worst was Bury (60.8%). Con's best borough was Bury (27.9%), and their worst was Manchester (8.2%). Green's best borough was Manchester (6.8%) and their worst was Wigan (2.8%). LD's best borough was Stockport (5.9%) and their worst was Wigan (1.6%). Reform UK's best borough was Oldham (3.4%) and their worst was Trafford (2.0%).
Labour (obviously) came top in every borough. Conservatives came second in every borough. Green were third in Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Salford, Tameside and Trafford, fourth in Rochdale, Stockport, and Wigan, and fifth in Oldham. LD were third in Oldham, Rochdale and Stockport, fourth in Bury, Manchester, and Trafford, fifth in Bolton, Salford, and Tameside, and sixth in Wigan. Reform UK were third in Wigan, fourth in Oldham, Salford, and Tameside, fifth in Bolton, Bury, Manchester, Rochdale, Stockport, and Trafford. English Democrats were sixth everywhere except Wigan where they came fifth, and Oldham where they came eighth.
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Post by Dave Morgan on Aug 16, 2023 10:29:16 GMT
Labour (obviously) came top in every borough. In fairness Labour came top in every ward, including in my own ward where we won, on the same day, the council ward by 3 to 1 over Labour.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,729
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2023 10:32:23 GMT
Isn't this one not due until 2025?
(first elected in 2017 I believe)
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Post by Dave Morgan on Aug 16, 2023 10:42:26 GMT
Isn't this one not due until 2025? (first elected in 2017 I believe) I don't think so. The first was elected outside of the cycle of the locals, I think like the PPC elections, and the PPC election due in 2016 for GM was delayed to be merged into the Mayoral election. The idea was then to get the GM Mayor back into sync with the other PPC/Mayoral elections in 2020, but then Covid hit, so the term was extended by a year, with a year lost on the other side (like cllr elections).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,729
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2023 10:49:12 GMT
Thank you for that, its all just a bit confusing isn't it
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Post by where2travel on Aug 16, 2023 11:08:34 GMT
The question is how many wards will Labour not win - last time it was none and the time before 4 or 5?
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batman
Labour
Posts: 9,017
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2023 11:45:17 GMT
brave predictions of Labour defeat above.......
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,362
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 16, 2023 11:47:16 GMT
One suspects not made entirely seriously...
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,367
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 0:17:33 GMT
Tories topped the poll in Greater Manchester in 2008, IIRC. The ‘King of the north’ (the ‘once and future king’) will win.
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 29, 2023 18:32:31 GMT
Tories topped the poll in Greater Manchester in 2008, IIRC. The ‘King of the north’ (the ‘once and future king’) will win. 210,543 vs 210,110, if Wikipedia and my typing are both correct. Mostly a result of Lib Dem strength, taking votes and wards off Labour? They came in with 154,576. Voting patterns totally different to a single region-wide poll, just as the case with Burnham vs. LE2021 contrasts (such as Dave's ward above).
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 1, 2023 20:09:23 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Dan Barker.
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Post by edgbaston on Dec 1, 2023 22:01:52 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Dan Barker. sacrificial lamb is ordained
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Post by froome on Dec 1, 2023 22:37:18 GMT
Has Andy Burnham actually been selected as candidate yet?
I would imagine he must have one of the largest personal votes of any politician in this country, and as he has said previously, this is the job he loves, and I can't see him ever giving it up for a chance to get back into parliament and go for the Labour leadership.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Dec 1, 2023 23:13:19 GMT
Hardly worth even thinking about whether he has been selected or not. We know he will be the Labour candidate unless he decides it's time to quit of his own accord.
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 2, 2023 11:35:39 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Dan Barker. Candidate in Brooklands (Trafford) last May. Unless this is now an out-of-date profile, will be on both ballots next year. twitter.com/Dan4Brooklands
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Post by froome on Dec 2, 2023 13:34:17 GMT
The question is how many wards will Labour not win - last time it was none and the time before 4 or 5? As this wasn't answered at the time, my guess is that assuming Burnham is the candidate, Labour will win every ward again, and possibly all fairly comfortably. A more interesting, though completely hypothetical question, would be how many Labour would lose if they had a different candidate. Then 4 or 5, perhaps more, seems quite possible.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Dec 2, 2023 14:02:24 GMT
It would be plenty more with a less well-known or less popular candidate. Some of the wards just aren't Labour areas at all in parts of Trafford & Stockport in particular, although outside of those 2 boroughs there aren't many which are normally out of reach. Stalybridge South in Tameside is pretty obstinately Conservative in other elections
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