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Post by manchesterman on Dec 2, 2023 14:03:12 GMT
Labour (obviously) came top in every borough. In fairness Labour came top in every ward, including in my own ward where we won, on the same day, the council ward by 3 to 1 over Labour. Just wondering, on a wider point, whether this has ever happened before in an election where a substantial number of wards are in play (say, over 50). I'm sure it must have happened many times in GE constituencies (but there are only 2 or 3 handfuls of wards in a GE seat at most) so we're really talking about these type of County/Metro Borough-wide votes or the old EU constituencies?
Edit: maybe the Liverpool Mayor election?
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 2, 2023 14:05:55 GMT
It would be plenty more with a less well-known or less popular candidate. Some of the wards just aren't Labour areas at all in parts of Trafford & Stockport in particular, although outside of those 2 boroughs there aren't many which are normally out of reach. Stalybridge South in Tameside is pretty obstinately Conservative in other elections Yeah, add in a couple of the wards in the north of Bury and Bolton. I could see Tory ward wins getting into double figures if Labour choose a less popular candidate.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2023 14:12:02 GMT
It is at least possible Ben Houchen carried every ward in the 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 2, 2023 14:12:35 GMT
In fairness Labour came top in every ward, including in my own ward where we won, on the same day, the council ward by 3 to 1 over Labour. Just wondering, on a wider point, whether this has ever happened before in an election where a substantial number of wards are in play (say, over 50).
Edit: maybe the Liverpool Mayor election?
Presumably the Tories won Heswall or Rainford?
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 2, 2023 17:44:28 GMT
Looking at the ward-level data from last time, I've noticed that quite a few of the wards where Burnham's majority was smallest are (or, at least, were this year) not straightforward Con-Lab battles in the locals. With the caveat that there's been many boundary changes between 2021 and this year, it seems to point to electorates with well-established voting habits of not always voting for the same party and of voting differently depending on the type of election involved.
No. 3 (majority 4%) - Trafford, Hale Barns, Con 1-2-3/LD 1-2-3 in 2023 No. 4 (majority 4%) - Trafford, Bowdon, Con 1-2-3/Green 4-5-6 No. 6 (majority 16%) - Oldham, Crompton, LD 1-2-3/Lab 1-2-3 No. 8 (majority 18%) - Bury, Radcliffe North and Ainsworth, Con/Radcliffe First No. 9 (majority 18%) - Tameside, Stalybridge North, Con/Con/LD/LD/L/LD No. 14 (majority 22%) - Oldham, Saddleworth South, Con/LD/Con/LD/Con/L No. 15 (majority 22%) - Stockport, Bramhall South & Woodford, LD 1-2-3/Con 1-2-3 No. 18 (majority 25%) - Oldham, Medlock Vale, L 1-2-3/Ind/LD/LD No. 19 (majority 26%) - Stockport, Bramhall North, LD 1-2-3/Con 1-2-3
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Post by where2travel on Dec 3, 2023 15:34:40 GMT
Burnham’s majority was in excess of 20% in the two Bramhall wards? I’m amazed by that (his vote share must have been astounding for Labour in those wards). I thought voting patterns were quite stable here, with local and general elections a clear and close battle between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour often struggling to get into a double digit percentage. There are varying, but not hugely dissimilar, degrees of tactical voting between the local and general elections, but there must have been an enormous switch of the usual patterns for the mayoral election.
Are the detailed results available online?
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 3, 2023 15:41:49 GMT
Burnham’s majority was in excess of 20% in the two Bramhall wards? I’m amazed by that (his vote share must have been astounding for Labour in those wards). I thought voting patterns were quite stable here, with local and general elections a clear and close battle between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour often struggling to get into a double digit percentage. There are varying, but not hugely dissimilar, degrees of tactical voting between the local and general elections, but there must have been an enormous switch of the usual patterns for the mayoral election. Are the detailed results available online? Bramall South & Woodford: Labour 2,862 Con 1,683 LD 342 Grn 156
Bramhall North:
Labour 2,697 Con 1,464 LD 256 Grn 151
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 3, 2023 15:47:42 GMT
What happened to the LD vote in those wards is very similar to what happened to the Green vote in the ones where we had seats at the time, or were simultaneously gaining one:
Altrincham
Labour 2,565 Con 980 Grn 492 LD 84
Woodhouse Park
Labour 1,810 Grn 587 Con 251 LD 34
Ashton Waterloo
Labour 1,849 Con 504 Grn 238 LD 26
Reddish South
Labour 2,886 Grn 514 Con 446 LD 52
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Post by where2travel on Dec 3, 2023 16:05:13 GMT
Burnham’s majority was in excess of 20% in the two Bramhall wards? I’m amazed by that (his vote share must have been astounding for Labour in those wards). I thought voting patterns were quite stable here, with local and general elections a clear and close battle between the Tories and Lib Dems with Labour often struggling to get into a double digit percentage. There are varying, but not hugely dissimilar, degrees of tactical voting between the local and general elections, but there must have been an enormous switch of the usual patterns for the mayoral election. Are the detailed results available online? Bramall South & Woodford: Labour 2,862 Con 1,683 LD 342 Grn 156
Bramhall North:
Labour 2,697 Con 1,464 LD 256 Grn 151
Thank you. Clearly a large and very tactical anti-Tory vote switching to Burnham for the mayoral election (where they’re happy to vote Lib Dem otherwise when they are the main non-Tory vote). The scale of it still surprises me, it’s not like he wasn’t going to win overall, so anyone genuinely more Lib Dem-inclined could have stuck with them knowing the overall outcome wouldn’t be impacted. Also, non-Tories here have been in the habit of voting Lib Dem consistently for a long time.
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 3, 2023 18:21:04 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Dan Barker. Who? Thought it was the smug Chris Green at first. This guy doesn’t appear to be an elected councillor even. At least Laura Evans was, though she got humiliated, not even managing to carry her own ward. The only Tory candidate I can think of that would be able to carry a few wards would be Graham Brady. Then the is of course the rumour that should Andy head back to Westminster, Gary Neville could be a potential Labour mayoral candidate. Though he would be good, he may well lose the support of some die-hard City fans and gift a few wards to the Tories. I think these rumours were most ramped when Starmer’s polling was down in the dumps around the Hartlepool BE… less so now, but still just to reiterate that Burnham won Bowdon and Bramhall, imagine if he was leader…
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 3, 2023 21:09:54 GMT
Then the is of course the rumour that should Andy head back to Westminster, Gary Neville could be a potential Labour mayoral candidate. Though he would be good, he may well lose the support of some die-hard City fans and gift a few wards to the Tories. I think these rumours were most ramped when Starmer’s polling was down in the dumps around the Hartlepool BE… less so now, but still just to reiterate that Burnham won Bowdon and Bramhall, imagine if he was leader… Which wards have the most City fans?
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2023 21:56:31 GMT
Bramall South & Woodford: Labour 2,862 Con 1,683 LD 342 Grn 156
Bramhall North:
Labour 2,697 Con 1,464 LD 256 Grn 151
Thank you. Clearly a large and very tactical anti-Tory vote switching to Burnham for the mayoral election (where they’re happy to vote Lib Dem otherwise when they are the main non-Tory vote). The scale of it still surprises me, it’s not like he wasn’t going to win overall, so anyone genuinely more Lib Dem-inclined could have stuck with them knowing the overall outcome wouldn’t be impacted. Also, non-Tories here have been in the habit of voting Lib Dem consistently for a long time. think it's more than a tactical vote. A lot of it is a positive vote in favour of Andy Burnham.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Dec 3, 2023 22:13:40 GMT
Then the is of course the rumour that should Andy head back to Westminster, Gary Neville could be a potential Labour mayoral candidate. Though he would be good, he may well lose the support of some die-hard City fans and gift a few wards to the Tories. I think these rumours were most ramped when Starmer’s polling was down in the dumps around the Hartlepool BE… less so now, but still just to reiterate that Burnham won Bowdon and Bramhall, imagine if he was leader… Which wards have the most City fans? The obvious one may be Ancoats and Beswick...
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 15, 2024 13:05:15 GMT
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Post by batman on Mar 15, 2024 15:37:46 GMT
Go on, punk, make my day.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Mar 15, 2024 15:38:55 GMT
Just a windup - although one that will be repeated back to him at the GE
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Post by stb12 on Mar 15, 2024 20:59:27 GMT
“Galloway, 69, would need to step down as Rochdale’s MP – a role he has held for 14 days so far – if was elected Greater Manchester mayor”
I know it’s generally been convention for MPs elected as Mayors to stand down but is there actually a law on it now?
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Post by bluelabour on Mar 15, 2024 21:04:42 GMT
It is at least possible Ben Houchen carried every ward in the 2021 Tees Valley mayoral election. I think it’s near impossible that he won the Central or Newport wards of Middlesbrough but the turnout will have been appallingly low in both.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 15, 2024 21:15:35 GMT
Go on, punk, make my day. he knows he won't win, he knows that Workers party have no reach beyond Galloway but this way he's on every ballot paper in GM. Every Workers Party leaflet will be: 1. Vote Galloway for Mayor 2. Vote WP for council Galloway won't win but it'll maximise the WP vote which won't be very much but more than otherwise
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 15, 2024 21:20:22 GMT
B is right most people I talk to in GM say Burnham is Mr Manchester. He's not Labour he's Andy Burnham. The only thing is it doesn't translate into the locals. When Andy wins Saddleworth Labour doesn't
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