Dagenham and Rainham

[stb12]

Dagenham and Rainham

[John Chanin]

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[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	16.0%	80.9%	2.9%	0.2%
1950	20.4%	71.3%	7.2%	1.0%
1951	24.1%	74.1%	1.8%
1955	26.2%	71.3%	2.6%
1959	30.9%	64.3%	4.9%
1964	21.4%	63.6%	13.8%	1.2%
1966	26.1%	72.3%		1.6%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	28.5%	67.3%	3.0%
1974	23.8%	64.9%	9.4%
1974	19.8%	62.2%	16.5%
1979	33.0%	52.3%	11.3%	2.8%
1983	35.9%	35.1%	27.4%	1.3%
1987	41.3%	38.6%	20.1%
1992	42.2%	45.5%	11.8%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	BNP
1997	25.5%	60.4%	7.7%	3.7%	1.5%
2001	32.0%	54.2%	9.0%	1.3%	2.8%
2005	31.1%	49.1%	8.5%	3.8%	6.6%
2010	33.6%	40.4%	8.6%	3.6%	11.7%
2015	24.5%	41.5%	1.6%	29.7%
2017	39.5%	50.3%	1.0%	7.3%
2019	43.1%	44.7%	3.0%	6.6%

[The Bishop]

This one going Tory in the 1980s is surely notable, meaning a Tory win here last time wouldn't really have been as "unprecedented" as in some other places.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The Tory revival in working class east London in the 1980s is quite significant - look at Newham South for an even more spectacular example. But it seems not to have been sustained - a lot of floating voters coming the Tory way wasn't enough to build a proper base.

[Pete Whitehead]

Boundary changes eliminated Newham South and then of course the 1997 landslide unwound any of the gains the Conservatives made in areas like there and Dagenham (actually earlier here, in the 1994 by-election). Subsequently massive demographic change prevented any recovery. Lots of people who voted Conservative in Newham South in the 1980s are still doing so, its just that they're voting in Castle Point or Clacton now instead.

[edgbaston]

Apr 27, 2024 11:48:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Boundary changes eliminated Newham South and then of course the 1997 landslide unwound any of the gains the Conservatives made in areas like there and Dagenham (actually earlier here, in the 1994 by-election). Subsequently massive demographic change prevented any recovery. Lots of people who voted Conservative in Newham South in the 1980s are still doing so, its just that they're voting in Castle Point or Clacton now instead.

And sit on Facebook complaining how much London has ‘changed’ despite the fact that them leaving at the sight of an Asian person was 90% of the reason for this.

[John Chanin]

Apr 27, 2024 11:48:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Boundary changes eliminated Newham South and then of course the 1997 landslide unwound any of the gains the Conservatives made in areas like there and Dagenham (actually earlier here, in the 1994 by-election). Subsequently massive demographic change prevented any recovery. Lots of people who voted Conservative in Newham South in the 1980s are still doing so, its just that they're voting in Castle Point or Clacton now instead.

It's not just boundary changes in Newham South.  Building was only starting in Beckton in the 1980s, and there is loads of modern development around the docks.  Half the area of the old Newham South is redeveloped since then. Canning Town is still largely council estate, but yes the population has changed out of all recognition, as it has in more owner-occupied Plaistow.  Canning Town was very much a white council tenant unhappy about other people moving in.  As a Newham housing worker we had huge problems of racial harassment in Canning Town.

Of course many of the people who voted Conservative in the 1980s in east London are now dead. It's their children in Basildon and Castle Point.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 27, 2024 12:06:48 GMT John Chanin said:

Apr 27, 2024 11:48:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Boundary changes eliminated Newham South and then of course the 1997 landslide unwound any of the gains the Conservatives made in areas like there and Dagenham (actually earlier here, in the 1994 by-election). Subsequently massive demographic change prevented any recovery. Lots of people who voted Conservative in Newham South in the 1980s are still doing so, its just that they're voting in Castle Point or Clacton now instead.

It's not just boundary changes in Newham South.  Building was only starting in Beckton in the 1980s, and there is loads of modern development around the docks.  Half the area of the old Newham South is redeveloped since then. Canning Town is still largely council estate, but yes the population has changed out of all recognition, as it has in more owner-occupied Plaistow.  Canning Town was very much a white council tenant unhappy about other people moving in.  As a Newham housing worker we had huge problems of racial harassment in Canning Town.

Of course many of the people who voted Conservative in the 1980s in east London are now dead. It's their children in Basildon and Castle Point.

Of course many of them are dead but many are not. People my age and not much older were voting in the 1980s

[J.G.Harston]

Apr 27, 2024 12:16:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Apr 27, 2024 12:06:48 GMT John Chanin said:

Of course many of the people who voted Conservative in the 1980s in east London are now dead. It's their children in Basildon and Castle Point.

Of course many of them are dead but many are not. People my age and not much older were voting in the 1980s

I voted either twice or three times in the 1980s, and I'm not "old". Somebody will have to remind me what the election schedule was in Stirling at that time, I certainly voted there at least twice.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 27, 2024 12:06:48 GMT John Chanin said:

Apr 27, 2024 11:48:31 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Boundary changes eliminated Newham South and then of course the 1997 landslide unwound any of the gains the Conservatives made in areas like there and Dagenham (actually earlier here, in the 1994 by-election). Subsequently massive demographic change prevented any recovery. Lots of people who voted Conservative in Newham South in the 1980s are still doing so, its just that they're voting in Castle Point or Clacton now instead.

It's not just boundary changes in Newham South.  Building was only starting in Beckton in the 1980s, and there is loads of modern development around the docks.  Half the area of the old Newham South is redeveloped since then. Canning Town is still largely council estate, but yes the population has changed out of all recognition, as it has in more owner-occupied Plaistow.  Canning Town was very much a white council tenant unhappy about other people moving in.  As a Newham housing worker we had huge problems of racial harassment in Canning Town.

Of course many of the people who voted Conservative in the 1980s in east London are now dead. It's their children in Basildon and Castle Point.

There are still a few vestiges of the "old" Newham South here and there - for instance most of the census areas of Newham that retain a relatively significant White British presence are in and around Canning Town. The area around Tinto Road stands out in particular (90% UK born, 78% white) but this also applies at a neighbourhood level with Newham's second and third most White British MSOAs being Custom House and Canning Town East - the former Olympic Park is first on this metric. It is also noticeable that the minority population in southern Newham is very different from further north: much more Christian with a significant Eastern European and Black African presence (but far fewer residents from Asian communities).

Custom House ward even went so far as to back Shaun Bailey in the first round of the 2021 mayoral election - part of his more general strength in "left behind" parts of the capital (especially those with a significant number of Black residents). And to bring this back to the topic of the thread, this constituency also fit that pattern, backing Bailey despite its traditional Labour lean.

[batman]

Labour is doing better than in 1945 in quite a lot of London constituencies, despite the very large nationwide swing to the Conservatives between 1945 & 2019, but in this seat, and also Bexley, the reverse is very heavily the case.

[swingometer]

John Parker MP