The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:26:18 GMT
How would things stand on the council if Labour win the upcoming by-election?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:22:20 GMT
This outfit oscillates faster than a pendulum in a grandfather clock. But why? Deltapoll seems to be at least their equal in this - the pollster known as Omnisis was also highly bouncy, but seems to have settled down a bit post-rebrand.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:20:20 GMT
Well the answer in the two Haringey contests at least seems to be - neither, really.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2023 10:04:51 GMT
How many are up next year?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2023 10:00:52 GMT
Boing!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 12:17:16 GMT
I don't disagree, but Labour "only" carried the seat by about 50% to 40% in this year's local elections - so it might not be a complete blowout for them.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 12:08:03 GMT
Not yet, but it's worth investing any extra money there to speed up things. Maybe but nothing more than that I’d say otherwise it shows some complacency, the Hilary Clinton campaign started looking at Texas and we know how that turned out overall Yes but her campaign was (in)famously awful generally. I don't think this one decision was that significant a factor. Unless they are in totally defensive mode next year, targeting Texas (and thus forcing the GOP to spend time and money there) very much makes sense for the Democrats.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 11:52:35 GMT
Yes, because of the hysterical reaction more generally - including within the party.
(one Labour MP reportedly screamed at Miliband that the party was "finished" if he didn't sack her)
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 11:48:15 GMT
Is a seat the Tories held before 1997 really a Red Wall? Not really, but Blackpool is a good fit for that term - to the extent it actually means anything - in several other respects.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 10:31:24 GMT
Are you familiar with a former poster called foggy? Still posts here on occasion.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 3, 2023 10:28:01 GMT
I didn't realise that the SNP had actually won Edinburgh South (at Holyrood in 2011) until now.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2023 9:22:29 GMT
Scotland is basically three regions in effect - Southern Uplands, Central Belt, and Highlands?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2023 9:17:46 GMT
Should take lessons from Trump in getting away with it. Last month Trump said he was going to beat Obama in 2024, and this was important because the Democrats were trying to start World War 2. But Biden said "day" when he meant to say "week" so that was the one everyone talked about. When the media wants the "box office" that is a close result, literally no inconvenient facts are going to get in the way of this. You can see this tendency with certain people regarding the next GE here (and quite plausibly, this election as well)
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2023 9:13:14 GMT
Is that the journalist and writer Matthew Engel in Herefordshire? IIRC he lives in that part of the world.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 2, 2023 9:07:14 GMT
Airdrie and Shotts 2021 was when Labour was at its lowest in the polls, a Nationalist hold always seemed likely. It's not a shock like other SNP by-election results. I think polling this Parliament can be seen from a pre- and post-Batley and Spen perspective. Labour's performance improved after that, even when they were behind in the polls.Edit - the swing the week before in the corresponding Scottish Parliament constituency was only a 3.1% SNP-Lab swing. This can also be seen in local byelections - from the middle of 2021 there is a definite falling off in Tory performance. Even though they stayed ahead in the polls until late that year, not the first time "real votes" have served as a leading indicator in this respect.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2023 9:55:52 GMT
It happened just a week after Labour's HISTORIC HUMILIATION in Hartlepool, if anything many were expecting a pro-SNP swing there.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2023 9:51:57 GMT
Egremont, Aspatria. Cumbria cornered the market in unpronounceable place names. Fitting for such an introspective, remote part of the world. Not a 'how you say it', but I don't like the mixup between Barrow & Furness and Barrow-in-Furness. I think it's the case that Barrow is the place and Furness is a peninsula? I also think we can close this poll down now BossMan , Vote UK voted to Remain rumouring and ramping about potential Parliamentary by-elections with unbridled aplomb. I was going to echo the sentiment of David Drew when he won back Stroud in 2017 "it's good that we do this", but this was a wasteful vote, much like the Hampstead Town by-election last year triggered by the ward's first ever Labour Councillor throwing in the towel almost as soon as he won the seat. Truer of some parts than others tbh. Quite a few of the former mining settlements around Whitehaven/Workington are still like going back in time.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2023 9:45:26 GMT
Nope - the last changes to the Greater London boundary were in 1995 OK then, last *major* changes
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 1, 2023 8:54:30 GMT
Four polls taken at roughly the same time period, one well out of line with the other three (even allowing for house effects)
Btw this recent MRP survey by "Stonehaven" also had Labour at 39%, though that apparently involved fieldwork as far back as August.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2023 9:36:49 GMT
Well in 2020 the GOP used the "President Harris" scare to some effect, it might be even more effective next year assuming both she and Biden are again on the ballot.
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