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Post by timrollpickering on Nov 13, 2022 13:50:31 GMT
(Feel free to merge this with the election thread when the time comes.)
There's speculation about a particular candidacy as part of the ongoing battle over a certain constituency:
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Post by johnloony on Nov 13, 2022 17:42:25 GMT
(Feel free to merge this with the election thread when the time comes.) There's speculation about a particular candidacy as part of the ongoing battle over a certain constituency: He would only get about 1% anyway even if he did, which he won’t. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Nov 13, 2022 17:48:36 GMT
Would he do better or worse than his brother did last year?
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 13, 2022 17:50:36 GMT
Please do it. It'll be so funny.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 13, 2022 21:00:04 GMT
Might he head a left list (like, indeed, Left List) and get that over the line? I doubt Corbyn has the appetite to be an assembly member with all the committee etc work that goes with it and might feel that he is too old but he could get elected and step down in favour of whoever was second.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 13, 2022 21:05:28 GMT
Might he head a left list (like, indeed, Left List) and get that over the line? I doubt Corbyn has the appetite to be an assembly member with all the committee etc work that goes with it and might feel that he is too old but he could get elected and step down in favour of whoever was second. No - I think if he stands anywhere or for anything it will be for Parliament in his seat of Islington North. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 14, 2022 9:33:47 GMT
Would he do better or worse than his brother did last year? Better, because he’s less mad |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 14, 2022 9:36:56 GMT
Would he do better or worse than his brother did last year? much better, but much worse than Ken Livingstone |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 14, 2022 9:39:33 GMT
Sadiq Khan is potentially beatable. It's my experience that the extension of the ULEZ is very unpopular in much of outer London, and not necessarily just amongst habitual Tory voters. However, if he does run for re-election (which would make him the first 3-term Mayor) it would most likely still be at a time of Tory government and he would probably still win. It would depend if the Tories were able to come up with a more credible candidate than last time at least to an extent.
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Post by John Chanin on Nov 14, 2022 9:41:55 GMT
How about Boris Johnson?
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 14, 2022 10:09:19 GMT
Johnson v Corbyn II: This Time It's Personal |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 14, 2022 10:19:35 GMT
Sadiq Khan is potentially beatable. It's my experience that the extension of the ULEZ is very unpopular in much of outer London, and not necessarily just amongst habitual Tory voters. However, if he does run for re-election (which would make him the first 3-term Mayor) it would most likely still be at a time of Tory government and he would probably still win. It would depend if the Tories were able to come up with a more credible candidate than last time at least to an extent. Given how surprisingly close it was last time, Sadiq could be in trouble if the Tories got themselves together. Problem is that there's a lack of talent in London. I can't think of a Ben Houchen, Andy Street, etc. candidate for London |
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 14, 2022 10:49:07 GMT
he would be a stronger candidate than Shaun Bailey, but he would have to vacate his parliamentary seat & cause a by-election........ |
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 14, 2022 11:05:53 GMT
he would be a stronger candidate than Shaun Bailey, but he would have to vacate his parliamentary seat & cause a by-election........ Although if he did win, it would probably be close enough to the next general election that no by-election would be held anyway. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 14, 2022 12:56:13 GMT
Sadiq Khan is potentially beatable. It's my experience that the extension of the ULEZ is very unpopular in much of outer London, and not necessarily just amongst habitual Tory voters. However, if he does run for re-election (which would make him the first 3-term Mayor) it would most likely still be at a time of Tory government and he would probably still win. It would depend if the Tories were able to come up with a more credible candidate than last time at least to an extent. Given how surprisingly close it was last time, Sadiq could be in trouble if the Tories got themselves together. Problem is that there's a lack of talent in London. I can't think of a Ben Houchen, Andy Street, etc. candidate for London Though it was close in 2021 partly because the Tories were genuinely popular at that time (in a way they are unlikely to be in 2024) and also some Labour complacency - the paradox is that a better Tory candidate might have got them to up their game. Even *if* Corbyn splits the vote under FPTP, a Tory win would still be a surprise. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 14, 2022 13:25:09 GMT
Given how surprisingly close it was last time, Sadiq could be in trouble if the Tories got themselves together. Problem is that there's a lack of talent in London. I can't think of a Ben Houchen, Andy Street, etc. candidate for London Though it was close last time partly because the Tories were genuinely popular at that time (in a way they are unlikely to be in 2024) and also because of Labour complacency - the paradox is that a better Tory candidate might have got them to up their game. Even *if* Corbyn splits the vote under FPTP, a Tory win would still be a surprise. though even this year when the Tories lost 400 seats nationwide and Labour made big gains like Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster. The Tories made gains of their own in London like Harrow and Croydon. Local factors apply but could still be key factors in 2024 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2022 14:11:55 GMT
Is Khan going for a third term?
I wasn’t really paying attention in 2016 or 2020, but presumably this discussion means he didn’t commit himself to two terms only like Boris did(?)
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batman
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Post by batman on Nov 14, 2022 15:12:55 GMT
he has made no announcement about his intentions for 2024, as far as I know.
Of course FPTP is not used in Mayoral elections, only for the GLA constituencies.
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Post by stb12 on Nov 14, 2022 15:24:51 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Nov 14, 2022 15:34:36 GMT
Of course FPTP is not used in Mayoral elections, only for the GLA constituencies. Are you sure about that? |
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