The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2023 8:57:09 GMT
Labour's overall vote in this survey was just under 40%, which does seem a bit low.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2023 10:02:57 GMT
More up to date than the ComRes (or whatever it is called now) poll.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2023 10:01:56 GMT
This pollster is slower to release their results than is now the norm, which matters when you are looking for evidence of a "bounce" for one party.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2023 9:55:56 GMT
Where the language spoken when the place was named was as close to Welsh as makes no difference. I presumed something like that. fascinating but probably one for the language and linguistics thread Wikipedia has an interesting article on the Cumbric language. Its impossible to be totally sure due to the lack of conclusive written evidence, but it is now widely believed to have survived longer than was once generally thought.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2023 9:51:20 GMT
Yes indeed, there is no way that a swing of 2.6% can be accurately described as big. Perhaps Sunak's presence locally has been a help to the Tories. After all when William Hague was the MP and was leading the Tories his personal results were very good. And of course the idea that almost all Green voters would have automatically transferred to the Lib Dems is arrant nonsense. I think that as yellowperil alluded to, the 28.5% Independent vote last time for an ex Tory councillor is probably fairly safely assumed to be Tory leaning, at least ( which is why I predicted a Conservative hold) so one could summise that the Tories were starting from a likely much higher base than they were on paper, and the swing of people who have voted Tory in the past and voted Lib Dem this time was more than the pure swing. But we can’t be certain on any of that I thought the Tories picking the candidate they did here might be a smart move, and so it seems to have proved.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 28, 2023 11:59:15 GMT
Oh please God don't let them "time out" or be forgotten about. nah, they'll just hold a quick snap election on the current boundaries before bringing them in Given that the new boundaries will benefit them electorally (even if not as much as some originally speculated) this would make little sense even if you think a snap election is feasible. But this is Sunak we are talking about, so who knows really
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:25:55 GMT
Might be worth pointing out that this is the same poll that gives Sunak absolutely terrible personal ratings.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:14:14 GMT
Well perhaps, apart from the whole "revealing hmself to be a total douchebag as a person" thing.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:11:07 GMT
Monmouthshire- given the strong opposition to joining Welsh devolution there in the 1997 referendum and its historic ambiguous status, I wonder if the people there would want it moving from Wales to South West England. I mean, the answer to this is pretty emphatically "Non". There's a reason why its "historic ambiguous" status was ended in the first place - because that was what the majority of people there clearly wanted. And these days returning even the attenuated present day Monmouthshire to England is very much the preserve of a few right wing cranks.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:06:18 GMT
No, he's not that popular. But its still interesting that Corbyn doesn't win it for Hall in this one.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2023 10:04:03 GMT
For comparison, Prof Sir John Curtice did a session at the Lib Dem conference this week. His model showed noticeably different results to this MRP. (without / with tactical voting) Lab 362 / 383 Con 198 / 173 LD 30 / 37 SNP + PC 41 / 41 I expect this is a more of a straight national swing without MRP effects, and that SNP figure still looks on the high side.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 10:07:33 GMT
In the days when said town was a massive Labour stronghold - Tories only just won the new Eastleigh seat in its original 1955 election.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 10:04:20 GMT
The point about Harrow is that there was similar chatter about the Tories taking it in 2018, but that ultimately didn't come to anything. Once bitten twice shy etc.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 9:57:50 GMT
There is maybe some fatigue with the LibDems locally given they have been in power since 1986. It wouldn't be surprising to see them gain this seat whenever the GE is, but then lose their majority on Sutton council after 40(!) years of unbroken control.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 9:52:26 GMT
Must be a decent chance that Obama still gets to be POTUS in that scenario, just four years later than IRL.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2023 9:43:40 GMT
Missed out on becoming MP for Blyth Valley at the last GE. Lost a historically safe Labour seat on one of the biggest swings in the country FTFY. Excellent candidate Tbf the candidate probably wasn't much of a factor in a lot of those sorts of seats at the last GE.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2023 9:36:59 GMT
Labour candidate is Susan Dungworth. An excellent choice. Missed out on becoming MP for Blyth Valley at the last GE.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2023 9:29:43 GMT
My dad's friend lives in Houghton Regis and says Labour are quite bullish. I told him about this forum's thoughts and insights into the contest. He also thinks the rock said Tory rural areas will keep this blue. I agree. The Tories falling from 59% to sub 30% won't happen. That is dependent on the hardcore Tory voters being motivated enough to turnout in this byelection. The Tories don't have to fall to sub-30% to lose. And given the backdrop, could this finally be the byelection where Reform have a significant impact?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2023 9:26:43 GMT
Why would Labour fail to exceed its 2015 vote share given current polls in Scotland? Tactical voting against the SNP and towards the Conservatives, and against the Conservatives and towards the SNP. Bear in mind Labour only took 13% of the vote in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock in 2019.Yes, but in so many places it was a fairly freakish election. Not disagreeing it is still almost certainly an SNP/Tory battle next time, but Labour could very plausibly have a major say in the outcome.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2023 9:58:12 GMT
I've heard some admittedly anecdotal accounts of English people who have moved to Scotland being "surprisingly" pro-SNP and independence. This is one of my best friends who I haven't seen in about 9 years and now has a 5 year old daughter. He often wears a kilt and tells me dubious things about Scottish history which I usually nod along with for the sake of not being there all day. This is all the more amusing because he sounds as much like an English man from Nuneaton as he always has and often parrots online American right wing talking points despite being a card carrying SNP member. Don't think he's a fan of Humza though. An amusing thread in "another place" on whether Trump (who of course has significant Scottish ancestry) would have been an SNP supporter if he was based there. The consensus was that yes, it was highly plausible.
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