The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2023 10:43:18 GMT
I am unsure if he will and don't think that it is a dead cert he would inevitably win if he did. I equally wouldn't describe it as "very unlikely" though.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2023 10:40:57 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2023 10:35:59 GMT
Yes a thought provoking post from markfoster, but some excellent replies too. I would have agreed a lot more about "anti-Trump hysteria" before January 6th. That really did change everything in my view.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2023 10:22:19 GMT
and you base this remark on? Not much (as is usual for said poster)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2023 9:55:48 GMT
2 votes when that party previously held the seat must be a rare event as well
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2023 9:50:47 GMT
3 out of 5 candidates getting 10 votes or less must be pretty unusual.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2023 9:21:17 GMT
Bath & North East Somerset, Radstock, Haydon. [] 90/81/3, Green 10, Con 7. Small electorate?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2023 9:19:55 GMT
so Labour & the Greens standing against each other in Spelthorne. Is this the end of the local progressive alliance or merely an interlude? Meanwhile Paul Couchman will end up losing even more elections than me if he carries on standing as frequently. I don't think the pact between the Lib Dems, Labour, Greens and others really worked out exactly as they would have liked. I may be wrong, as im not working off the numbers right now, but I recall it wasn't the great victory for the 'progressive alliance' and may have hindered results if anything. It wasn't as extreme as Bracknell Forest, but the Tories still lost around half their seats so it can maybe be considered a qualified success overall.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 25, 2023 9:13:40 GMT
Vectis? Given how the byelection came about, it is not massively surprising that their vote was well down.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2023 12:05:01 GMT
A local election is a local election. The Tories are going to bomb at the next general election. If the wheels really fall off the SNP then it's possible the Conservatives might 'undertake' them somewhere, but they aren't going to be surging anywhere if they're down 15 points nationally. Surge is too strong a word but if their vote holds up relatively well and the SNP’s declines as expected then there is some chance, certainly for holding their existing seats anyway Though against that, its not impossible the SNP declines more in the central belt than Tory-facing seats (where anti-Tory tactical voting could still be a thing even now)
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2023 11:30:37 GMT
A local election is a local election. The Tories are going to bomb at the next general election. If the wheels really fall off the SNP then it's possible the Conservatives might 'undertake' them somewhere, but they aren't going to be surging anywhere if they're down 15 points nationally. I respectfully disagree. Even in 2015, the Lib Dems held up and even advanced in some Scottish seats despite losing 10/11. I mean, where? Outside the Scottish seats they previously held they saved their deposit in just one come that cataclysmic election. (Banff and Buchan, and that was likely down to the Labour candidate getting "dis-endorsed" during the campaign)
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2023 11:17:52 GMT
Historically there was a strong National Front vote in Hoxton, later inherited by the Liberal Democrats This is a nice bit of trolling lol (but not untrue) This seat was also notable in 1983 not just for the Liberals opposing an Alliance "endorsed" SDP candidate (as also with Hammersmith and Liverpool Broadgreen) but for the NF and BNP standing against each other. They got fewer than 1k votes combined and both trailed an Independent Labour candidate.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 24, 2023 11:12:08 GMT
Yes. I have checked and the BNP narrowly won a by-election, mainly due to an even split of votes between Labour and the LIberal Democrats, who controlled Tower Hamlets in the early 1990s. Labour narrowly beat the BNP in Millwall in the following main council election, in 1994. I have altered the sentence, which was done from memory. I thought carefully of how best to word the position of Apsana Begum, and the political prospects here, and I think what I said was fair. This is a profile, not a detailed discussion. There's an awful lot more that it is better not to go into, but the basic position is I think outlined in the profile, which both those that know the area and those that don't, can read accordingly. Massively and overwhelmingly I remember at the time many focused on the fact the BNP numerical vote was significantly up on the previous year, and rather less on the Labour vote increasing much more - it wasn't far off 2 to 1 in the end. Btw the 1994 result was broadcast live on national channels, that can't have happened with many local government declarations.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2023 10:32:18 GMT
We are fortunate that my wife and I have a household income of £100k, so thankfully we could get on the housing ladder here. I do feel for people looking down the barrel of renting for the long-term - the prices are sky high. That has two capitalistic alienating effects 1) people end up living with people they don't know and 2) taking jobs they don't want in the likes of pubs or coffee shops. Will there ever be rent controls? I very much doubt there ever will be. Being a landlord is already a mad financial decision. How can you rationally put it less than interest rates (and lower yielding than bonds)? Quite a few seem to do OK out of it though....
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2023 10:17:37 GMT
It is certainly the case that the "housewives vote" was cited as a key reason for Heath's Tories winning in 1970.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2023 10:15:29 GMT
Well, of course. But the point is that Labour will almost certainly be on for a sizeable majority if they win this one - ie they don't *need* it to return to government.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2023 10:13:25 GMT
Pollsters not just bouncing around, but in different directions? It must be August.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2023 12:17:37 GMT
I don’t think there was ever any real suggestion that the Greens wouldn’t stand, but confirmation that they are standing: There was a fair amount of cynicism from Labour tweeters that they would, but maybe that is to be expected.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2023 12:13:14 GMT
Which is why I'm not sure about Robert's comment that this is a seat Labour "still" has to win. Even in the NE region, somewhere like Hexham may be more of a target now.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 22, 2023 12:08:02 GMT
Edmund Marshall remained a Labour MP until his Goole seat was effectively abolished in 1983, but joined the SDP not long afterwards.
(he had been a Liberal candidate before entering parliament in a 1971 byelection)
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