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Post by John Chanin on Aug 25, 2023 12:38:58 GMT
Islington North lacks glamour. It is a very ordinary chunk of north London, with few landmarks, its main distinction being that it covers the smallest geographical area (and therefore has the highest occupation density) of any seat in the country. The main exception is Arsenal’s Emirates football ground built on the site of an old waste transfer station just off the Holloway Road, which bisects the seat from north to south. Just to the south of the stadium is the main building of the London Metropolitan University (formerly the North London Polytechnic). On the other side of the railway line north from Moorgate is Highbury. The old Arsenal ground has been redeveloped into gated up market flats (although the name of the underground station has not been changed). Highbury is the best residential area in the seat. It has the highest white population, a noticeably higher proportion of managerial jobs and people with degrees, and higher levels of owner-occupation in the predominantly Victorian housing. There is less social housing there too, although like inner London in general it is still substantial. As Highbury blends into Finsbury Park to the north, the housing becomes smaller, renting becomes higher, and there are more routine workers. The park itself is in Haringey, but the station - an interchange between two tube lines and the overground - is in Islington. North of here, on both sides of the Holloway Road is Upper Holloway - with lots of council housing, but better off than Finsbury Park. At the far north-east corner is Archway, on the borders of Camden and Haringey, and the bottom of the hill that leads up to Highgate. There is indeed a bridge here along the ridge, connecting Highgate with Hornsey, that forms the northern edge of the seat. This area is a little down market. At the north-east corner around Stroud Green Road, this seat has a small southern extension of the trendy Crouch Hill district, most of which is in Haringey. Overall this seat has the 8th highest social housing in the country. Right to buy has generally had little impact in inner London - a combination of high values, poor tenants, and less than desirable properties. However where it has been exercised around half the properties have reverted to rental use at twice the council rents and a poorer repair service, under private ownership. They tend to be occupied by exactly the same sort of people who would have been council tenants in the past, and unsurprisingly tend to be dissatisfied with their lot. Private tenants form the strongest Labour group these days, at least among the white population. Perhaps surprisingly this is one of the best educated and most middle class seats in the country, despite the high levels of renting. There is a sizeable black population in this seat, but like its neighbours it has a very low south Asian population for London, resulting in an unusually high white British population for inner London of over 40%. And indeed this is a very safe Labour seat, unchanged since 1983, and still unchanged in the latest boundary review. At local level there has been competition from the Liberal Democrats, who won most of the wards and took control of the council in 2002, and remained competitive in 2006, but currently all the wards are Labour with the exception of Greens in Highbury. The MP here since 1983 is Jeremy Corbyn, long-standing left winger who was leader from 2015 to 2020. He originally won the seat in curious fashion from two sitting SDP MPs, after both defected, but Islington was reduced to two seats throwing them into competition. John Grant won the selection battle, but Michael O’Halloran, in high dudgeon, then stood as an independent, getting half of the vote of his former colleague. After this initial contest, Corbyn has received over 50% of the vote at every subsequent election, no doubt including in the amusingly named Corbyn Street in Holloway. It now seems unlikely that Corbyn will defend the seat at the next election. Census data: Owner-occupied 31% (559/575 in England & Wales), private rented 32% (59th), social rented 38% (8th). : White 62%(498th), Black 15%(30th), South Asian 5%(205th), Mixed 8%(7th), Other 11%(49th) : Managerial & professional 58% (17th), Routine & Semi-routine 18% (521st) : Degree 58% (15th), Minimal qualifications 19% (535th) : Students 9% (112th), Over 65: 9% (550th) Boundaries : This seat is unchanged
| 2017 | % | 2019 | % | Labour | 40,086 | 73.0 | 34,603 | 64.3 | Conservative | 6,871 | 12.5 | 5,483 | 10.2 | Liberal Democrat | 4,946 | 9.0 | 8,415 | 15.6 | UKIP/Brexit | 413 | 0.8 | 742 | 1.4 | Green | 2,229 | 4.1 | 4,326 | 8.0 | Other | 383 | 0.7 | 236 | 0.4 | Majority | 33,215 | 60.5 | 26,188 | 48.7 |
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Post by batman on Aug 25, 2023 16:08:12 GMT
It's interesting to note that, despite this constituency having one of the highest proportions of social housing in the land, no ward has a majority of such housing. Every single Islington council ward has at least 30% social housing, but none has over 50% (not quite), a very even distribution throughout the borough.
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 25, 2023 16:36:57 GMT
It's interesting to note that, despite this constituency having one of the highest proportions of social housing in the land, no ward has a majority of such housing. Every single Islington council ward has at least 30% social housing, but none has over 50% (not quite), a very even distribution throughout the borough. Not quite. Highbury ward has only 29.6%. A number of other north London seats come close, but it looks like only Islington South meets this criterion.
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Post by graham on Aug 26, 2023 10:27:23 GMT
On what basis is Corbyn not expected to run here as an Independent in 2024?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2023 10:43:18 GMT
I am unsure if he will and don't think that it is a dead cert he would inevitably win if he did. I equally wouldn't describe it as "very unlikely" though.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 26, 2023 10:58:14 GMT
On what basis is Corbyn not expected to run here as an Independent in 2024? I think he probably won’t, because (a) he probably supports and likes the Labour Party more than it supports or likes him (b) he’s getting old, so it would be a reasonable time to retire anyway. It would of course be fun for us (psephologically) if Corbyn stood as an Independent, but that alone is not a big enough reason for him to decide to be a candidate.
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Post by graham on Aug 26, 2023 11:17:18 GMT
On what basis is Corbyn not expected to run here as an Independent in 2024? I think he probably won’t, because (a) he probably supports and likes the Labour Party more than it supports or likes him (b) he’s getting old, so it would be a reasonable time to retire anyway. It would of course be fun for us (psephologically) if Corbyn stood as an Independent, but that alone is not a big enough reason for him to decide to be a candidate. I fully understand that , but in an article in the Evening Standard earlier this month he appeared to hint that he would stand.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 26, 2023 11:21:43 GMT
It certainly suits Corbyn's interests at this point to leave open the possibility that he will stand for re-election as an Independent candidate, but equally he cannot confirm it as it would admit defeat in his battle to be readmitted to Labour.
What would be interesting is to know if there have been any actual preparations for the campaign team necessary to run independently.
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Post by graham on Aug 26, 2023 11:39:03 GMT
It certainly suits Corbyn's interests at this point to leave open the possibility that he will stand for re-election as an Independent candidate, but equally he cannot confirm it as it would admit defeat in his battle to be readmitted to Labour. What would be interesting is to know if there have been any actual preparations for the campaign team necessary to run independently. Were he to run, he would likely be backed by most of the Islington North CLP - and there would be very little support from local party members for any successor candidate. In terms of organistion, significant resources will be available to Corbyn.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,379
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Post by weld on Aug 26, 2023 11:59:13 GMT
It’s the principle? I think him being blocked emboldened him to stand whereas IMO otherwise he may have called time. He’s been in elected office since 1974! Are Corbyn and Diane going to be the Dave Nellist and Terry Fields of 2024?
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Post by batman on Aug 27, 2023 7:57:31 GMT
It certainly suits Corbyn's interests at this point to leave open the possibility that he will stand for re-election as an Independent candidate, but equally he cannot confirm it as it would admit defeat in his battle to be readmitted to Labour. What would be interesting is to know if there have been any actual preparations for the campaign team necessary to run independently. Were he to run, he would likely be backed by most of the Islington North CLP - and there would be very little support from local party members for any successor candidate. In terms of organistion, significant resources will be available to Corbyn. that, I don't think is really true. Although he undoubtedly has sympathizers within the CLP, that's not the same as saying that the majority of the CLP's current members will be willing to sacrifice their Party membership by openly campaigning for him against an official Labour candidate. Nor is it the case that all of the CLP members are necessarily that sympathetic, there are plenty who don't belong to the Momentum wing of the party.
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 27, 2023 9:17:41 GMT
It's not going to happen but for pure gaming it, historically unless the MP has been deselected an independent run has led to a split in the local membership and suspension of the CLP. Can't see why it wouldn't happen again IF there was an independent run
Edit:
Thinking Dave Nellist, Peter Law, etc. rather than Gavin Shuker, Chris Leslie, etc. who couldn't carry a cup of coffee let alone members and voters with them
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 19:10:26 GMT
It's not going to happen but for pure gaming it, historically unless the MP has been deselected an independent run has led to a split in the local membership and suspension of the CLP. Can't see why it wouldn't happen again IF there was an independent run Edit: Thinking Dave Nellist, Peter Law, etc. rather than Gavin Shuker, Chris Leslie, etc. who couldn't carry a cup of coffee let alone members and voters with them Not forgetting SO Davies, Dick Taverne and Eddie Milne who all saw off the party machine at least once. Desmond Donnelly polled nearly 12000 as an Independent at Pembroke in 1970.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 19:14:22 GMT
It's not going to happen but for pure gaming it, historically unless the MP has been deselected an independent run has led to a split in the local membership and suspension of the CLP. Can't see why it wouldn't happen again IF there was an independent run Edit: Thinking Dave Nellist, Peter Law, etc. rather than Gavin Shuker, Chris Leslie, etc. who couldn't carry a cup of coffee let alone members and voters with them Not forgetting SO Davies, Dick Taverne and Eddie Milne who all saw off the party machine at least once. Desmond Donnelly polled nearly 12000 as an Independent at Pembroke in 1970. Milne stood three times as an Independent, winning in Feb 74, losing narrowly in Oct 74 and by over 7,000 in 1979. Even then he polled almost 18,000 votes.
Taverne won the 1973 by election and in Feb 74, but like Milne, lost the October election
S O (stephen) Davies beat Labour in 1970 but died in Feb 72 , causing a by election won by Labour with Plaid a reasonably close second.
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 20:14:22 GMT
Not forgetting SO Davies, Dick Taverne and Eddie Milne who all saw off the party machine at least once. Desmond Donnelly polled nearly 12000 as an Independent at Pembroke in 1970. Milne stood three times as an Independent, winning in Feb 74, losing narrowly in Oct 74 and by over 7,000 in 1979. Even then he polled almost 18,000 votes.
Taverne won the 1973 by election and in Feb 74, but like Milne, lost the October election
S O (stephen) Davies beat Labour in 1970 but died in Feb 72 , causing a by election won by Labour with Plaid a reasonably close second.
Indeed - and I would expect Corbyn to at least match the performance of Taverne and Milne.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 27, 2023 20:28:51 GMT
Milne stood three times as an Independent, winning in Feb 74, losing narrowly in Oct 74 and by over 7,000 in 1979. Even then he polled almost 18,000 votes.
Taverne won the 1973 by election and in Feb 74, but like Milne, lost the October election
S O (stephen) Davies beat Labour in 1970 but died in Feb 72 , causing a by election won by Labour with Plaid a reasonably close second.
Indeed - and I would expect Corbyn to at least match the performance of Taverne and Milne. It is slightly incredible to think that Corbyn has now been an MP for longer (40 years) than the almost nonagenarian Davies (38 years) .
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Post by stb12 on Aug 27, 2023 20:30:44 GMT
Milne stood three times as an Independent, winning in Feb 74, losing narrowly in Oct 74 and by over 7,000 in 1979. Even then he polled almost 18,000 votes.
Taverne won the 1973 by election and in Feb 74, but like Milne, lost the October election
S O (stephen) Davies beat Labour in 1970 but died in Feb 72 , causing a by election won by Labour with Plaid a reasonably close second.
Indeed - and I would expect Corbyn to at least match the performance of Taverne and Milne. Times have changed since then, party politics probably more partisan than before
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Post by graham on Aug 27, 2023 20:40:56 GMT
Indeed - and I would expect Corbyn to at least match the performance of Taverne and Milne. Times have changed since then, party politics probably more partisan than before Voters have become much less firm in their affiliations since the 1970s and now switch more readily. Difficult to believe that Dave Nellist could come so close to holding his seat in Coventry in 1992 without the much higher profile Corbyn being able to survive.
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Post by stb12 on Aug 27, 2023 20:47:59 GMT
Times have changed since then, party politics probably more partisan than before Voters have become much less firm in their affiliations since the 1970s and now switch more readily. Difficult to believe that Dave Nellist could come so close to holding his seat in Coventry in 1992 without the much higher profile Corbyn being able to survive. But we’re talking independents not switching parties I just think you’re a bit too certain on this, I wouldn’t entirely rule out Corbyn winning if he stood but I find it doubtful, the Labour vote is just so high. It’s not like there’s much of a significant vote for other parties that could help it be done through the middle
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 27, 2023 21:07:59 GMT
Politics is more partisan and polarised but that doesn't mean party loyalty is stronger. People would vote labour because they were in the union and the historical attachment to labour and the labour party.
The collapse in unionised labour has eroded that core vote.
As for a large majority. Wouldn't be the first time a large majority has been overturned
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