The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 9, 2023 11:39:24 GMT
It is true that the Tories did well here in 2022 at local level, but their performance was still short of the near clean sweeps of the previous few elections. Assuming a GE doesn't intervene by then, next year's results are going to be very interesting to observe.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,789
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 9, 2023 11:35:49 GMT
The cricketer W.W.Whysall had an extremely freaky & unfortunate death, aged only in his early 40s, in 1930. He slipped on a dance floor, cut his elbow & septicaemia set in and took his life. That must have been an awful death, poor fellow. Reminiscent of the Greek monarch who was bitten by his pet monkey and subsequently died of blood poisoning.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 9, 2023 11:33:42 GMT
The earlier editions of the Nuffield series (The "British General Election Of....." books) had some very interesting and readable profiles of individual seat battles as well as the stuff they still do now, though I think these went by the wayside in the 1970s.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2023 9:33:22 GMT
I thought they'd had some good results in Deptford at some point but it doesn't appear so from www.electionscentre.co.uk/ - I think possibly there were some by-elections they did well in. Yes, my recollection is definitely that they had a near miss in a Lewisham byelection (possibly in 1976/77?)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2023 9:20:01 GMT
Translation: Plaid will get votes, but they are so small we don't care if they get 0.49% of the national vote, so we'll put them down as 0% Well you do know this is how rounding works, yes?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2023 12:27:21 GMT
Tbf the two surveys we have had already in this seat probably count as "proper" polls.
That doesn't mean they will be *reliable*, any more than that late infamous 1985 effort in Brecon and Radnor was.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2023 10:58:53 GMT
It doesn't help the SNP that their leadership contest went 52-48 (where have I seen that number before) in favour of Humza Yousaf. Another way this seat is iconic is that it was the first SNP by-election win in the modern era, when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton in 1967. Yes I know most of this seat is Rutherglen ofc, but much of it isn't that seat and it does cover part of Winning Ewing's old Hamilton seat. It'd be good to have the LDs back as third party at Westminster. It's been too long. The Tories can't use the SNP phalanx to attack Labour. The old Rutherglen saw a fairly iconic byelection in its own right, when in the spring of 1964 Gregor Mackenzie gained it for Labour after 13 years of Tory wins - their candidate then (in a straight fight, a stark contrast to this week) was the young Iain Sproat.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2023 10:51:41 GMT
This is proving to me the opposite of Uxbridge - "rationally" we were always supposed to win that one comfortably, but there was always an instinctive nagging doubt (and not just because of previous byelection results there) which of course proved to be justified. Whereas here, all my rational senses continue to suggest this is a long Labour shot and the Tories are still favourites - but my gut is now saying that we can really do it! We shall know in a few weeks time how useful this all is
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 12:28:19 GMT
They really should have held off this polling for another week or two.
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The Bishop
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YouGov
Oct 6, 2023 12:27:06 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 12:27:06 GMT
The Times today carries some other questions from the Yougov Lab 45, Con 24 poll, on whether particular policy announcements are right or wrong. Some of these are interesting I think Cancelling HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester Right 37%, wrong 40% don’t know 23%. That feels much more divided than the reaction would suggest Though given the ecstatic reaction it got from Sunak's client media, you could view that figure the other way as well. And this may be one of those issues where public opinion being "evenly divided" obscures as much as it reveals (ie one side actually cares about this rather more than the other)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 11:43:21 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:32:15 GMT
On the BBC's election coverage there was mention of a 7% Labour lead with the Conservatives losing their deposit. This wouldn't be an incredibly good result for Labour relative to how they have been performing in the opinion polls So where did this little gem come from, then? ISTR not dissimilar misinformation just a few hours before the Selby result was declared.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:24:01 GMT
I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Hmmm, may I just gently point out the fact that weld did quite well in the prediction competition for this seat? And on this occasion at least, his point seems not unreasonable. Yes there was a sizeable direct SNP to Labour switch (despite Nat politicians being totally in denial about this on the airwaves this morning) but the collapse of the Tory share surely tells its own story. Where do you think a fair bit of that vote went?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:21:53 GMT
Yeah, this guy was never voting anything other than Tory. Its the last bit about Sunak which really gives it away
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:08:33 GMT
Tamworth in particular was a good Labour result for obvious reasons, especially with the cause of the byelection being the sort of thing that can bother voters. Although I think that factor was countered to some extent by going from a straight Con/ Lab contest in May to a contest with essentially 4 right of centre options including the former recent Tory councillor for the ward standing as an Independent. All very helpful to Labour and somewhat the opposite to what often happens in local elections. Though going by the previous local by-election in Tamworth earlier this year, there is no guarantee a significant Indy presence helped Labour there - and many voters won't have been that aware of this one's previous political alignment (especially given they represented a different ward as a Tory) And of course the Uxbridge contest showed that right wing competition doesn't automatically have to doom the Tories, if they give people an actual reason to vote for them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 9:57:35 GMT
Tamworth in particular was a good Labour result for obvious reasons, especially with the cause of the byelection being the sort of thing that can bother voters.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 9:55:29 GMT
Even if he had quit this week, would there have been a by-election anyway given that its due up next May?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:47:53 GMT
Labour will certainly be happy enough with these holds, Tories might be pleased to get second (even if distantly) in both as well.
Maybe just a touch of polarisation ahead of next year's mayoral campaign?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:43:08 GMT
Yes but her campaign was (in)famously awful generally. I don't think this one decision was that significant a factor. Unless they are in totally defensive mode next year, targeting Texas (and thus forcing the GOP to spend time and money there) very much makes sense for the Democrats. Well it’s early days clearly but the current polling shows that Biden could well be on the defence For the most part, polling isn't that impressive for Trump given where we are in the electoral cycle. But yes, its all still very much to play for.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 5, 2023 11:26:18 GMT
How would things stand on the council if Labour win the upcoming by-election?
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