The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2024 14:13:04 GMT
We heard you the first time I assume this was for the original 2000 election? A fair few "non-political" names were floated around that time, before poor old Frank was made the fall guy.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2024 14:07:30 GMT
Yes, it doesn't happen that often but I am if anything slightly more with graham than batman here. I agree Labour aren't *likely* to win it, but the new seat boundaries *are* significantly better for them than the outgoing B&R - and for that reason alone it might be slightly remiss of them not to at least give it a go.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2024 14:04:14 GMT
Some people getting rather excited about the Labour drop in this poll, strangely enough often the same ones who got very giddy when they fell 5 points in a single survey last month. It might be worth also remembering that we are now entering a holiday period, and polls can sometimes do slightly odd things then.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 28, 2024 13:58:25 GMT
Slightly off topic but Joe Lieberman has died (posted in the RIP thread); does the No Labels movement die with him? Hopefully it is improved as a result.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 12:58:34 GMT
IIRC the BBC "forecast" wasn't an actual exit poll - as opposed to a "normal" VI survey - whereas the ITN effort was.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 12:23:27 GMT
Did she come across quite as barmy in her council leader days? I'm guessing not tbh, maybe another one who has been radicalised by social media??
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 12:17:51 GMT
It certainly doesn't *seem* like nearly 37 years ago now - where does the time go?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 11:49:29 GMT
There is, thus far, zero evidence that any WPGB candidate other than one G Galloway is capable of troubling the scorers.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 10:31:53 GMT
That's quite accurate for ITN after just 3 results were in.
(weren't the first 3 in that GE Torbay, Guildford and Basildon?)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2024 10:29:13 GMT
Those two things are not necessarily completely mutually exclusive tbf.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2024 12:34:59 GMT
I vaguely remember Buckton being claimed as a spook after his death in the 1990s.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 26, 2024 12:26:07 GMT
Is she ex-UKIP then?
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2024 11:12:35 GMT
And in none of those cases was a byelection actually requested by the seat's voters.
(plus who knows, the delay may have been a factor in the Liberals winning the later example)
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 25, 2024 11:03:52 GMT
During which he has arguably underperformed compared to the SNP more generally.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 12:18:37 GMT
I mean that not much changed in response to such an obviously unfair FPTP result.
The presumption upthread was that Reform getting a sizeable vote but few/no seats would lead to some sort of revolution (whether metaphorical or literal)
I will believe that scenario (all elements of it) when I see it.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 11:59:08 GMT
You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 11:56:54 GMT
This seat also saw an absolutely humungous swing to the Tories in 2010, it was surely amongst one of the biggest in the country.
Since then it has been mega-safe in every election. Even if that is slightly less the case this time, they would almost certainly still win it even in a 1931-type scenario.
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 11:52:55 GMT
All evidence suggests winning as an independent or with a smaller party is tough whatever the history of the individual is in the constituency, he has a high enough profile for it to be a possiblity but doubt it could ever be a certainty Sky high profile, almost certainty of 2 horse race with Labour, hated left could easily swarm this seat, Corbyn well on way to becoming a national treasure. He should be the favourite. But it is at least possible that could be a hindrance to Corbyn, rather than the opposite. Btw didn't he finally rule out standing for mayor this May just the other day? Its far from certain he does this, and it could yet depend on who the official Labour candidate is.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 10:35:00 GMT
The literal certainty of going to the polls again in a few months didn't seem to bother Wirral South voters in early 1997, nor did it mean the seat wasn't keenly contested.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 10:31:32 GMT
Then again, UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote in 2015 and just one MP. Not much changed as a result.
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