|
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 16:50:36 GMT
Sitting member- Onkar Sahota, Labour
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Aug 10, 2023 13:30:09 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Henry Higgins.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 10, 2023 13:34:37 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Henry Higgins. Good canvassing advice from his namesake:
"The great secret, Eliza, is not having bad manners or good manners or any other particular sort of manners, but having the same manner for all human souls in short, behaving as if you were in Heaven, where there are no third-class carriages, and one soul is as good as another.”
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 10, 2023 15:17:02 GMT
one soul is as good as another.” [/b][/i] [/div][/quote] That Henry Higgins evidently was unfamiliar with Hayes
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,723
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 10, 2023 16:49:34 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Henry Higgins. By George, he's got it!
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Aug 10, 2023 16:53:09 GMT
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 5:00:21 GMT
Conservative gain, IMO. Counterintuitively ofc, the Uxbridge result bodes well for Labour here given that the Tories need to run up the score in their Hillingdon bailiwicks to win this, but this area voted Tory in the last mayoral race, and Susan Hall’s Tories know how to play politics with ULEZ expansion.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 12, 2023 7:56:36 GMT
it's a question of whether the ULEZ issue is sufficient to outstrip the undoubted swing to Labour since the last elections. The Tories will have to do MUCH better than they did in the Uxbridge & S Ruislip by-election to win this division, as they will be up against formidable Labour leads (Ealing Southall being particularly heavy but the other 3 no slouches either) in 4 of the constituencies and can only completely rely on Ruislip & Northwood apart from their better wards in U&SR. I've voted for a Labour hold because I don't think the arithmetic adds up for the Tories given their dreadful opinion poll ratings (which may have improved a bit by May, but will still be much worse than they were in 2021).
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 8:06:37 GMT
it's a question of whether the ULEZ issue is sufficient to outstrip the undoubted swing to Labour since the last elections. The Tories will have to do MUCH better than they did in the Uxbridge & S Ruislip by-election to win this division, as they will be up against formidable Labour leads (Ealing Southall being particularly heavy but the other 3 no slouches either) in 4 of the constituencies and can only completely rely on Ruislip & Northwood apart from their better wards in U&SR. I've voted for a Labour hold because I don't think the arithmetic adds up for the Tories given their dreadful opinion poll ratings (which may have improved a bit by May, but will still be much worse than they were in 2021). Feel free to ‘quote’ me btw, batman. They may need to make inroads with Sikh voters here too. What can the Tories offer the voters in Southall, for instance? Sikhs aren’t as Sunak-friendly as Hindus, but others might know better.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 12, 2023 9:06:51 GMT
Southall has a Hindu MP, but there are considerably fewer Hindus there than either Muslims & Sikhs. Sikh voters are still heavily Labour in this part of the world & I'm pretty sure that the sitting AM is Sikh. In more prosperous areas Sikhs are less monolithically Labour than they are in Southall & in Hayes & Harlington. So far Labour has not taken much of a hit from the defection to the Tories of some prominent Sikh community figures in the noughties. We don't really have much evidence of whether Hindu voters in Southall and in H&H are swinging that strongly to the Conservatives, yet, but there didn't seem to be much evidence of it in the 2022 local elections. In some wards in the division however they almost certainly are, for example the Tories' perhaps surprisingly easy hold in Hillingdon East ward in the local elections may be partly indicative of Labour's failure to get much support from Hindu voters there (of which there is an increasing number). And yet Labour did relatively well in neighbouring Hillingdon West, which has quite a lot of large prosperous Hindu families; it had been an overwhelmingly safe Tory area but Labour is fairly close to competitive in the ward now. Labour has never won that ward which used to exist before the 2002 boundary changes before being reformed for last year's elections.
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 12:34:50 GMT
Southall has a Hindu MP, but there are considerably fewer Hindus there than either Muslims & Sikhs. Sikh voters are still heavily Labour in this part of the world & I'm pretty sure that the sitting AM is Sikh. In more prosperous areas Sikhs are less monolithically Labour than they are in Southall & in Hayes & Harlington. So far Labour has not taken much of a hit from the defection to the Tories of some prominent Sikh community figures in the noughties. We don't really have much evidence of whether Hindu voters in Southall and in H&H are swinging that strongly to the Conservatives, yet, but there didn't seem to be much evidence of it in the 2022 local elections. In some wards in the division however they almost certainly are, for example the Tories' perhaps surprisingly easy hold in Hillingdon East ward in the local elections may be partly indicative of Labour's failure to get much support from Hindu voters there (of which there is an increasing number). And yet Labour did relatively well in neighbouring Hillingdon West, which has quite a lot of large prosperous Hindu families; it had been an overwhelmingly safe Tory area but Labour is fairly close to competitive in the ward now. Labour has never won that ward which used to exist before the 2002 boundary changes before being reformed for last year's elections. True, but the 2022 locals were before Rishi Sunak was PM.
|
|
|
Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 12, 2023 12:55:16 GMT
One needs to remember Labour did better in the Uxbridge by election that in 2021
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 14:09:03 GMT
One needs to remember Labour did better in the Uxbridge by election that in 2021 OK, but we can’t compare a 2023 Parliamentary by-election in one seat with Londonwide votes in 2021 and 2022, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Aug 12, 2023 16:52:41 GMT
Well, yes and no. The by-election was regarded as a referendum on ULEZ by many voters & that will also be the case in the GLA & Mayoral elections. However, it clearly wasn't by all voters by a long chalk.
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 17:31:23 GMT
Well, yes and no. The by-election was regarded as a referendum on ULEZ by many voters & that will also be the case in the GLA & Mayoral elections. However, it clearly wasn't by all voters by a long chalk. I don't remember there being a concrete date for ULEZ expanding to the Greater London boundary then. The last GLA and mayoral elections were before ULEZ expanded to the North and South Circular in October 2021. I don't remember when August of this year was confirmed as the date ULEZ would go beyond that. It clearly wasn't an Uxbridge & South Ruislip ULEZ referendum for everyone,, but that it was for some was just enough for the blue team to limp over the line.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 12, 2023 18:08:22 GMT
Remember that the ULEZ expansion happens in less than three weeks' time, and if there are (as suspected) lots of people who think they have to pay it but don't, the ULEZ protest may quickly stop being a major electoral factor.
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Aug 12, 2023 19:03:23 GMT
2021 result
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Labour Onkar Sahota 85,216 40.8 Decrease 2.0 Conservative Gregory Stafford 76,974 36.9 Increase 2.0 Green Marijn Van De Geer 22,620 10.8 Increase 3.0 Liberal Democrats Hussain Khan 16,435 7.9 Increase 1.4 Reform UK Anthony Goodwin 7,415 3.6 New Majority 8,242 3.9 Decrease 4.0 Turnout 208,660 45.8 Decrease 0.2 Labour hold Swing Decrease 2.0
|
|
|
Post by BossMan on Sept 24, 2023 11:01:36 GMT
|
|
andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
|
Post by andrea on Sept 24, 2023 11:05:14 GMT
Trigger ballots for all Labour constituency Assembly members are taking place in these weeks. Central party held the process until the end. The 2 list AMs have been reselected by the NEC without a reselection process.
|
|
weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
|
Post by weld on Sept 24, 2023 15:26:39 GMT
If he backs ULEZ, he’s losing the seat next May, in my view.
|
|