The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:23:11 GMT
Could it even be cancelled at this stage?
I know that Manchester Gorton was, but then May's announcement came with over a fortnight still to go until polling day.
This might be more like Liverpool Edge Hill in 1979, which still went ahead despite Labour losing the VoNC (thus causing a GE) earlier in the week.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:20:00 GMT
Don't the by-elections next Thursday count as part of this electoral year? I think they are treated as "sui generis" for the purposes of this calculation (as was the case with last year's)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:07:49 GMT
You've not been there have you? I've been there more than any other foreign destination... And the phrase was "*relatively* successful" - which is at least arguable.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 12:13:55 GMT
Though tbf the 1966 "result" was a photo finish and could quite conceivably have gone the other way. Many thanks to Pete Whitehead for posting these btw
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 12:08:19 GMT
Goes almost without saying that if the Tories *do* lose this it will be a truly terrible result for them and an excellent one for Labour - though even falling short they might fancy their chances of also carrying the old Selby district following last year's byelection?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 10:50:48 GMT
I don't think that Osamor ever really tried to conceal she was on the left of the party when getting selected, though.
Btw if she returns to the fold at Westminster and the Blackpool South byelection goes as widely expected, Labour could actually end up with more MPs going into the close of this parliament than it started it with - something that didn't appear terribly likely at one stage.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 10:45:46 GMT
Is it finally time to un-sticky this one?
Farewell dear thread, we knew you well - and over 1k posts is actually pretty good going.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 26, 2024 10:44:05 GMT
No fuill voting figures yet but Neil McEvoy gives rough percentages: His outfit presumably fought an actual campaign this time, which they likely didn't in 2022. Not much to see apart from that. And didn't realise this ward had only become safe for Labour that recently, in said context a very creditable result for them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:22:06 GMT
Interesting to see the co-writers of that, given how much their political paths have diverged in the subsequent decade.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:17:15 GMT
I was just thinking that it was a while since R&W had produced one of their once trademark wacky polls
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:15:19 GMT
METHODOLOGY CHANGE KLAXON!
On the new method of calculating the scores, Khan is basically unchanged on the previous poll whilst Hall is up modestly.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2024 12:11:49 GMT
Yes, if it indeed didn't that was pretty poor and - given that it is a mayoral contest - rendered the poll next to pointless.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2024 11:50:28 GMT
It may be unfair (though its not really) but anything the former RCP claque come out with can be automatically disregarded, including the weather and time of day. Kenan Malik? I have cited him myself as an exception before now, but there are few better instances of such a thing proving the rule as this one
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2024 11:45:42 GMT
I can see the case for the NE as "Northumbria", the SW as "Wessex", the WM as "Mercia" - and the Eastern region as East Anglia as was indeed formerly the case. Apart from that, leave well alone. Unless you want to rename the NW as Granadaland
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2024 11:38:24 GMT
Old hands may recall the single issue Valley Party that stood candidates at the 1990 Greenwich council elections - protesting about Charlton Athletic still not having a ground of their own half a dozen years after they just survived their winding up scare, and urging the Labour run council to resolve this. They didn't win any seats themselves, but it is thought they caused a few Labour councillors/candidates to lose contests they might otherwise have won. And before too long they achieved their aim, with Charlton returning to their old ground during the 1992/93 season.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 24, 2024 11:29:15 GMT
I see this latest poll is featured in the Telegraph, presumably this will now be a regular thing until whenever the GE is?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2024 12:41:27 GMT
Yes, but that is a bit of a "piece of string" question - once you start with that where do you draw the line?
(of course, upholding "same name" as a rigid rule explains other certain initially puzzling ones - such as what we used to call the Western Isles)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2024 12:38:25 GMT
With similar politics, no doubt.
It may be unfair (though its not really) but anything the former RCP claque come out with can be automatically disregarded, including the weather and time of day.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2024 12:36:37 GMT
An article in this weeks Economist puts Barnsley North as the most likely seat for a Reform gain. Yes, because they are using 2019 BxP votes and little else. Apart from current Reform support (inasmuch as it is a real phenomenon as opposed to just a polling artefact) not mapping that well onto Brexit Party strength at all, the latter didn't even stand in half the country at the last GE!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 23, 2024 12:31:31 GMT
Thought it might be something like that, but isn't this what (one off) boundary revisions are for?
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