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Post by BossMan on Aug 11, 2023 16:31:56 GMT
Incumbent- Andy Street, Conservative.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 11, 2023 18:03:31 GMT
Street is quite popular but that may not be enough to save him if Labour pick the right candidate. I assume that Liam Byrne won't be given a second go.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Aug 11, 2023 18:13:49 GMT
Street is quite popular but that may not be enough to save him if Labour pick the right candidate. I assume that Liam Byrne won't be given a second go. Labour candidate is Richard Parker. He won the selection over Nicky Brennan (and Simon Foster who was longlisted but didn't make the shortlist after receiving only 2 nominations fron CLPs).
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 20, 2023 23:33:17 GMT
The Tories’ version of Wisconsin gubernatorial elections? You even have a WOW area in these parts - Walsall, Oldbury and Wolverhampton - key for Street to win again!
I believe 2017 was the first time the Tories won an election across the West Midlands county since 1977. So even if he loses, two terms here is pretty solid in an area that drew in many Labour-voting towns and cities back in the early 70s.
Really, Street should be MP for Solihull or Sutton Coldfield so he can rebuild the Conservatives in opposition. I say this having interviewed him before. He’s very electable, IMHO.
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Post by bluelabour on Aug 21, 2023 2:17:46 GMT
The Tories’ version of Wisconsin gubernatorial elections? You even have a WOW area in these parts - Walsall, Oldbury and Wolverhampton - key for Street to win again! What on earth are you talking about?
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 3:04:00 GMT
The Tories’ version of Wisconsin gubernatorial elections? You even have a WOW area in these parts - Walsall, Oldbury and Wolverhampton - key for Street to win again! What on earth are you talking about? How this area is overall classic Red Wall territory since the Tories didn’t win a countywide election since 1977 before Andy Street won it. I think it’s broadly analogous to a Midwest US state like Wisconsin (which went for Reagan in 1984 but stayed Democratic until Trump won it). The WOW counties are an electorally important area of Wisconsin as they net the right a lot of votes there. Similarly, the Tories doing well in Walsall, Oldbury (in Sandwell) and Wolverhampton is important for them winning the West Midlands mayoral election.
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 21, 2023 4:19:00 GMT
What on earth are you talking about? How this area is overall classic Red Wall territory since the Tories didn’t win a countywide election since 1977 before Andy Street won it. I think it’s broadly analogous to a Midwest US state like Wisconsin (which went for Reagan in 1984 but stayed Democratic until Trump won it). The WOW counties are an electorally important area of Wisconsin as they net the right a lot of votes there. Similarly, the Tories doing well in Walsall, Oldbury (in Sandwell) and Wolverhampton is important for them winning the West Midlands mayoral election. I don’t think there are two more different sets of places than the very white wealthy WOW suburbs you describe, and the diverse postindustrial and poor areas of the Black Country. The comparison is literally just ‘someone from the main right with party won there’ but even then that’s a bit tenuous as Street is hardly known for being a right wing politician. He wouldn’t be successful in the West Midlands if he was very right wing, akin to a Republican. Sometimes there is just no comparison and that’s OK, but if you really want a comparison the Republicans doing better in the Iron range area of western Wisconsin would at least have some similarities.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 21, 2023 4:24:29 GMT
How this area is overall classic Red Wall territory since the Tories didn’t win a countywide election since 1977 before Andy Street won it. I think it’s broadly analogous to a Midwest US state like Wisconsin (which went for Reagan in 1984 but stayed Democratic until Trump won it). The WOW counties are an electorally important area of Wisconsin as they net the right a lot of votes there. Similarly, the Tories doing well in Walsall, Oldbury (in Sandwell) and Wolverhampton is important for them winning the West Midlands mayoral election. I don’t think there are two more different sets of places than the very white wealthy WOW suburbs you describe, and the diverse postindustrial and poor areas of the Black Country. The comparison is literally just ‘someone from the main right with party won there’ but even then that’s a bit tenuous as Street is hardly known for being a right wing politician. He wouldn’t be successful in the West Midlands if he was very right wing, akin to a Republican. Sometimes there is just no comparison and that’s OK, but if you really want a comparison the Republicans doing better in the Iron range area of western Wisconsin would at least have some similarities. I think he literally just meant Walsall, Oldbury, Wolverhampton. If you were looking for something similarly in the psephological sense then Solihull, Sutton Coldfield and Aldridge would be the equivalent of the ruby red Milwaukee suburbs.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 4:47:39 GMT
Wisconsin also has the electorally significant BOW counties. The West Midlands has Bilston, Oldbury and Wednesbury.
I now picture Coventry as the West Midlands’ ‘panhandle’.
The Manchester WOW counties of Withington, Old-Moat and Whaley range perhaps matter less in UK elections!
Surely the UK iron range is County Durham or Merthyr.
Maybe Street is more like Mike DeWine or Charlie Baker.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 21, 2023 5:04:42 GMT
Or perhaps there isn't really a direct comparison between the West Midlands and any US state. And perhaps analysis of the likely outcome of a mayoral election here doesn't require that there be one.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 5:16:03 GMT
West Midlands = Wisconsin West Yorkshire = Michigan Nottinghamshire = Ohio North Yorkshire = Indiana County Durham = Iowa Essex = Missouri Teesside = West Virginia Lancashire = Pennsylvania Warwickshire = Minnesota Greater Manchester = Illinois I’m sure there are other parallels
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Post by batman on Aug 21, 2023 5:23:00 GMT
Weld, that's enough, seriously, this is not quite as interesting as you think it is.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 5:24:27 GMT
Weld, that's enough, seriously, this is not quite as interesting as you think it is. I’ve done all the Midwest states now 👍🏻 also, you know you can tag people on here batman. That would help with the discussion we were having on the ‘South West’ GLA thread.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2023 5:30:59 GMT
OK, we get it, you've never actually been anywhere in the Black Country. So shut yer piehole.
Street will be helped because Birmingham will not have local elections in 2024 and so turnout will only be around 20-25%, whether it will be enough is a different question. All the other West Midland Mets are up and will vote and turnout will be higher, especially with all ups in Dudley and, I think, Wolves.
Street quite rightly keeps his distance from the national Tories and has a profile, I have yet to hear anything from the Labour candidate.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 5:31:59 GMT
OK, we get it, you've never actually been anywhere in the Black Country. So shut yer piehole. Street will be helped because Birmingham will not have local elections in 2024 and so turnout will only be around 20-25%, whether it will be enough is a different question. All the other West Midland Mets are up and will vote and turnout will be higher, especially with all ups in Dudley and, I think, Wolves. Street quite rightly keeps his distance from the national Tories and has a profile, I have yet to hear anything from the Labour candidate. Been to Birmingham on a school trip if that’s Black Country.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2023 5:44:02 GMT
OK, we get it, you've never actually been anywhere in the Black Country. So shut yer piehole. Street will be helped because Birmingham will not have local elections in 2024 and so turnout will only be around 20-25%, whether it will be enough is a different question. All the other West Midland Mets are up and will vote and turnout will be higher, especially with all ups in Dudley and, I think, Wolves. Street quite rightly keeps his distance from the national Tories and has a profile, I have yet to hear anything from the Labour candidate. Been to Birmingham on a school trip if that’s Black Country. Brummagem is absolutely not Black Country. None of it. It's the one thing Yams agree on. Most of Wolvo, Sandwell, Dudley and Walsall MBC's are Black Country, most, none of us agree exactly on where is and where isn't, there are nearly as many definitions as there are Yams. There are bits of South Staffs and Cannock which are sort of Black Country.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 21, 2023 5:46:57 GMT
How come there isn't a Black County combined authority?
The 'West Midlands' seems like such a construct.
Cf. modern Staffordshire's weird boundaries.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 21, 2023 5:56:56 GMT
How come there isn't a Black County combined authority? Oh mate. There's enough people who still resent the changes of the 60 and 70s without creating a single Black Country Local Authority.
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Post by batman on Aug 21, 2023 6:58:08 GMT
Birmingham is indeed not part of the Black Country. Brum is Brum. Even the wonderful brewers of the Black Country have never bothered acquiring pubs in Birmingham itself. (There aren't half some brilliant ales & pubs in the Black Country.)
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 21, 2023 7:58:58 GMT
Been to Birmingham on a school trip if that’s Black Country. Brummagem is absolutely not Black Country. None of it. It's the one thing Yams agree on. Most of Wolvo, Sandwell, Dudley and Walsall MBC's are Black Country, most, none of us agree exactly on where is and where isn't, there are nearly as many definitions as there are Yams. There are bits of South Staffs and Cannock which are sort of Black Country. The Black Country Society defines it as the area on the thirty foot coal seam, regardless the depth of the seam. This excludes much of Wolverhampton, and Stourbridge probably doesn't qualify under that definition. Politically it's the four boroughs of Wolverhampton, Dudley, Walsall and Sandwell. Culturally there's some overspill from there as iainbhx suggests, and there's been migration from the Black Country into places like Telford, where you will find that Wolves are the best-supported football team rather than Shrewsbury Town or their own non-league AFC Telford United.
The cultural (as opposed to political) boundary between the Black Country isn't a hard one - it could hardly be, when the boundary runs up the middle of some roads. Bearwood and Smethwick are near-Brummie, and West Brom arguably is as well (you can find Albion supporters in the adjacent part of Birmingham, and the boundary runs down one side of the stadium). But by the time you get to Oldbury you're definitely in Yam Yam land.
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