Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on May 4, 2024 1:40:48 GMT
As said by me in another thread, how long do most Muslim voters stay angry with Labour once Gaza is over? They generally came back from defecting over Iraq, after all. Until the war’s faded away, no one remembers Syria anymore Now you mention it, I did wonder why I remembered the Mediterranean being wider and having a coastline with Iraq
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 4, 2024 5:53:03 GMT
Netanyahu will hopefully be out of office, if not in jail, quite soon. I'm not under any illusions that any likely successor will be massively better but they might just provide that "inch of difference" that helps many of the rest of us to breathe. I can't think of any other politician who is such a pain in the arse for the conduct of politics in entirely unrelated fields.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on May 4, 2024 6:00:41 GMT
Netanyahu will hopefully be out of office, if not in jail, quite soon. I'm not under any illusions that any likely successor will be massively better but they might just provide that "inch of difference" that helps many of the rest of us to breathe. I can't think of any other politician who is such a pain in the arse for the conduct of politics in entirely unrelated fields. Let it go, Lynn. You're never going to meet him.
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 238
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Post by Roger Harmer on May 4, 2024 7:33:38 GMT
What do you guys think about the potential impact of Akhmed Yakoob? He seems to have run quite an active campaign. Will he cost Labour the mayoralty? Yes in the sense that votes that have gone to him rather than Parker will almost certainly mean Street wins. Whether thats because of his campaign or Labour's failings in Birmingham / Gaza is an interesting debate.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 4, 2024 8:21:50 GMT
Yes in the sense that votes that have gone to him rather than Parker will almost certainly mean Street wins. Whether thats because of his campaign or Labour's failings in Birmingham / Gaza is an interesting debate. I've never seen "an interesting debate" used in place of "without doubt" before.
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Post by greatkingrat on May 4, 2024 8:36:42 GMT
If we still had second preferences, would the Yakoob voters be likely to vote Labour second? Or are they angry enough about Gaza that they wouldn't vote Labour at all?
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Post by mattbewilson on May 4, 2024 8:40:47 GMT
If we still had second preferences, would the Yakoob voters be likely to vote Labour second? Or are they angry enough about Gaza that they wouldn't vote Labour at all? be interesting to see if GB Workers Party voters in Longsight and Rochdale voted for Andy Burnham
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 8:41:17 GMT
Yes in the sense that votes that have gone to him rather than Parker will almost certainly mean Street wins. Whether thats because of his campaign or Labour's failings in Birmingham / Gaza is an interesting debate. I've never seen "an interesting debate" used in place of "without doubt" before. It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 874
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Post by r34t on May 4, 2024 9:05:20 GMT
I've never seen "an interesting debate" used in place of "without doubt" before. It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics. You're incorrectly assuming that all Muslims 'did' vote Labour & that all Muslims now 'don't' vote Labour. The main demographic, young, trendy green (small 'g') is larger & not voting Labour atm, which is where the 'problem' is.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 4, 2024 9:13:10 GMT
I've never seen "an interesting debate" used in place of "without doubt" before. It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics. A Labour source says these wards voted overwhelmingly for the Indy in the Mayoral election and overwhelmingly Labour in the PCC. They're not against voting Labour by default, but will readily switch to an appealing alternative. They didn't vote Conservative on either ballot paper, nor did they vote Lib Dem, Green or Reform in the mayoral. It is a fairly safe bet that they'd have stuck with Labour if the Indy hadn't stood.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 4, 2024 9:15:53 GMT
It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics. You're incorrectly assuming that all Muslims 'did' vote Labour & that all Muslims now 'don't' vote Labour. The main demographic, young, trendy green (small 'g') is larger & not voting Labour atm, which is where the 'problem' is. I'm not assuming anything (although edgbaston's report from the verification rather indicates that they still are 'all' voting Labour in some circusmtances and largely not in others - it is obvious anyway from general election voting patterns in Birmingham that 90%+ of Kashmiri muslims do/have voted Labour). But my point was that even if they did previously all vote Labour and now none of them do, Labour should still be able to win in this area based on their support amongst non-muslim demographics who form the vast majority of voters. You actually seem to be agreeing with my point while trying to present it as a disagreement?
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Post by rcronald on May 4, 2024 9:17:33 GMT
You do realise that Netanyahu is unpopular because he’s perceived as too soft, and indecisive. Right?
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 874
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Post by r34t on May 4, 2024 9:18:57 GMT
You're incorrectly assuming that all Muslims 'did' vote Labour & that all Muslims now 'don't' vote Labour. The main demographic, young, trendy green (small 'g') is larger & not voting Labour atm, which is where the 'problem' is. I'm not assuming anything (although edgbaston 's report from the verification rather indicates that they still are 'all' voting Labour in some circusmtances and largely not in others - it is obvious anyway from general election voting patterns in Birmingham that 90%+ of Kashmiri muslims do/have voted Labour). But my point was that even if they did previously all vote Labour and now none of them do, Labour should still be able to win in this area based on their support amongst non-muslim demographics who form the vast majority of voters. You actually seem to be agreeing with my point while trying to present it as a disagreement? Didn't intend to disagree just emphasising that the Labour/Gaza issue is much, much wider than just a religious one (cf Bristol Central)
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 4, 2024 9:26:49 GMT
It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics. A Labour source says these wards voted overwhelmingly for the Indy in the Mayoral election and overwhelmingly Labour in the PCC. They're not against voting Labour by default, but will readily switch to an appealing alternative. They didn't vote Conservative on either ballot paper, nor did they vote Lib Dem, Green or Reform in the mayoral. It is a fairly safe bet that they'd have stuck with Labour if the Indy hadn't stood. Chances are that without Yakoob on the ballot many would have stayed at home but they turned up to vote for him and when presented with PCC ballot that was a simple Lab v Tory contest went for the former.
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Post by iainbhx on May 4, 2024 10:12:17 GMT
It isn't without doubt. Say he gets 10% of the vote and Labour lose by a 5% margin you could say that he has 'cost' them the election, but how many of those voters would have stuck with Labour absent his candidacy? They're voting against Labour for a reason and the reason doesn't go away with him so many will presumably have stayed at home. But given the state of the natioanl polls, Labour should be well ahead of the Conservatives in any area like this regardless of the muslim vote. What is the overall proportion of muslims in the West Midlands? 15-20% ? Labour should be way ahead amongst other groups - massive leads in Wolverhampton (only 5% muslim) should easily outweigh any natural Conservative lead in eg Solihull. So Labour's failure to win here (assuming they do) is their own failure to win votes across multiple demographics. You're incorrectly assuming that all Muslims 'did' vote Labour & that all Muslims now 'don't' vote Labour. The main demographic, young, trendy green (small 'g') is larger & not voting Labour atm, which is where the 'problem' is. The young trendy green demographic is almost unknown in the East Birmingham Massive. Nor in several wards do normal politics apply, it is biraderi based and whilst this sometimes breaks down (1995-2008 being one such period), the normal contest for those wards is for the Labour selection which I can assure you generally isn't based on factionalism within the mainstream of the Labour party. Hence, in local elections, people tend to vote, sometimes whether they want to or not, for the Labour party - Hence the 80% in Alum Rock or Heartlands. You do see competitive wards based on to an extent on inter-community issues and selection issues (Bordesley Green & Ward End in 2022) This has been less the case in Mayoral or PCC elections because the biraderis have no horse in the race, there is less community pressure, lower turnouts. This time it is a little different because of the anger over Gaza and hence the backing of Yakoob although a lot of older people are very sceptical about him. He may also have encouraged because of his social media presence an increase in voting in certain demographics within the Muslim community, mainly younger males, who rather like a lawyer with a Lamborghini - not exactly green friendly. He may also have attracted the small element who believe voting for non-Muslims is haraam - maybe 2-4% of Muslim voters but that's a few thousand in Brum, although they tend to be very judgy. It is, however, a moot point of how people would have voted in the Mayoral if he had not stood, I suspect some would not have voted, I suspect some would have voted Green - although there are issues there as well and some of them may have gone LibDem (but again, issues there). Under normal circumstances, probably two thirds of his vote would have been Labour, on the current circumstances maybe somewhat less but as we can see from some other data, some would have been. 2026 could be interesting. I can see another PJP/JFK possibly forming out of this.
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Post by edgbaston on May 4, 2024 10:42:45 GMT
A Labour source says these wards voted overwhelmingly for the Indy in the Mayoral election and overwhelmingly Labour in the PCC. They're not against voting Labour by default, but will readily switch to an appealing alternative. They didn't vote Conservative on either ballot paper, nor did they vote Lib Dem, Green or Reform in the mayoral. It is a fairly safe bet that they'd have stuck with Labour if the Indy hadn't stood. Chances are that without Yakoob on the ballot many would have stayed at home but they turned up to vote for him and when presented with PCC ballot that was a simple Lab v Tory contest went for the former. Well yes this was exactly our conclusion. There was also some undervote for the PCC to add to this.
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Post by edgbaston on May 4, 2024 10:45:48 GMT
Becoming clear here at the ICC that it’s all going to come down to Labour’s margin in Birmingham. Counters have been told to be prepared for a recount just in case.
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Post by iainbhx on May 4, 2024 10:46:26 GMT
Chances are that without Yakoob on the ballot many would have stayed at home but they turned up to vote for him and when presented with PCC ballot that was a simple Lab v Tory contest went for the former. Well yes this was exactly our conclusion. There was also some undervote for the PCC to add to this. One of those undervotes is me, shit position and two shit candidates, so I cast a blank ballot.
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Post by Yaffles on May 4, 2024 10:47:35 GMT
Chances are that without Yakoob on the ballot many would have stayed at home but they turned up to vote for him and when presented with PCC ballot that was a simple Lab v Tory contest went for the former. Well yes this was exactly our conclusion. There was also some undervote for the PCC to add to this. I agree - I think a substantial chunk of Indy vote would not have bothered voting in a mayoral election, if it wasn’t for Gaza. So these are in effect bonus turnout votes but little else.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,240
Member is Online
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 4, 2024 10:51:17 GMT
Well yes this was exactly our conclusion. There was also some undervote for the PCC to add to this. One of those undervotes is me, shit position and two shit candidates, so I cast a blank ballot. I spoilt my paper.
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