Local Council by-elections 2nd December 2021

[Tony Otim]

ADUR DC; Hillside (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLINSON, Rebecca Ann (Labour)
WHITING, Russell Lewis (Green)
WILLIAMS, Leila Yasmin (Conservative)

2021: Con 702; Lab 338; Grn 338 89 (see discussion below)
2018: Con 652; Lab 290; Grn 69; LD 33
2016:Con 551; Lab 253; UKIP 186; Grn 40; LD 37
2014: Con 529; UKIP 402; Lab 214; Grn 65; LD 59
2012: Con 499; Lab 268; UKIP 150; LD 61
2010: Con 1008; LD 667; UKIP 294; Grn 141
2008: Con 611; Lab 165; UKIP 149; LD 119
Sep 06by: Con 445; LD 184; Lab 124
2006: Con 684; LD 250; Lab 219
2004: Con 793, 657; LD 429; Lab 353

The deceased councillor was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, meaning this seat will be up again in May next year.

Current Council: Con 18; Lab 7; Ind 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy



BRECKLAND DC; Hermitage (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BRIGGS-WHITE, Graeme (Workers Party of Britain)
HAMBRIDGE, Robert (Conservative)
MNTO, James Ian (Liberal Democrat)
SIEGERT, Paul (Labour)

2019: Con 561; Lab 226
2015: Con 1016; UKIP 472

Current Council: Con 35; Lab 6; Ind Grp 4; Grn 2; Ind 1;



HIGHLAND UA; Fort William & Ardnamurchan (Con died)
Candidates:
DRAYTON, Mark (No Description)
FANET, Sarah (SNP)
LILEY, Roger (Liberal Democrat)
MATHESON, Joanne (Independent)
McKENNA, Andy (Independent)
STEWART, Ruraidh (Conservative)
WILLIS, Kate (Green)

2017: Ind 1550, 177; SNP 932, 437; Con 530; Lab 344; LD 192
This ward was unaffected by boundary changes in 2017
2012: Ind 647, 468, 448; Lab 574; SNP 567, 413; LD 180; Con 175
2007: LD 1059; Ind 939, 322, 317, 271. 241, 195, 194; SNP 778; Lab 501; Con 372

Joanne Matheson was the Independent who got 177 votes in 2017.

Current Council: Ind 25; SNP 18; LD 11; Con 10; Highland Matters 4 (incl 1 Grn); Lab 3; Non-aligned 1; Sutherland Ind Grp 1; 1 vacancy



LANCASTER DC; Bare (Con died)
Candidates:
ASHWORTH, June Irene (Morecambe Bay Independents)
BLAIKIE, Gerry (Liberal Democrat)
COTTAM, Jane Wangui (Conservative)
ROGERSON, Valerie Joyce (Labour)
SOMMERVILLE, James Andrew (Green)

2019: MBI 827, 800, 597; Con 721, 708, 598; Lab 406, 396; LD 282, 167, 131; Grn 178, 141; Ind 97
2015: Con 1288, 1179; MBI 1098, 1021, 932; Lab 794, 782, 734; UKIP 603; Grn 384, 298; LD 372

June Ashworth was the MBI councillor elected in 2015. She did not re-stand in 2019. She had previously been councillor for the ward on old boundaries 2007-2015 and was only 4 votes off being elected in 2003. Valerie Rogerson was the third Labour candidate in 2015.



LANCASTER DC; Upper Lune Valley (Con died)
Candidates
HARBISON, Iain Scott (Conservative)
HUNTER, Ross Douglas (Liberal Democrat)
KENRICK, Faith (Labour)
SHARKEY, Nicky (Green)

2019: Con 419; LD 402; Lab 92
2015: Con 1103; Lab 221; Grn 187

Ross Hunter was the unsuccessful Lib Dem in 2019.

Current Council: Lab 16; Con 11; Grn 10; MBI 9; Ind Grp 5; Eco-Socialist Ind 4; LD 2; Ind Ind 1; 2 vacancies



NEWPORT UA; Victoria (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
HORTON, Gavin John (Labour)
MILLER, John Edmunds (Liberal Democrat)
TARIQ, Muhammad (Conservative)

May 21by: Lab 1138; LD 402; Con 259; Grn 167
2017: Lab 840, 795; Con 371, 336; LD 344, 333: PC 123; Grn 84
2012: Lab 769, 674; LD 418, 345; Con 224, 174; PC 156, 108
2008: LD 618, 604; Lab 486, 450; PC 413, 197; Con 231
2004: PC 571, 459; Lab 561, 511; LD 286, 282

Muhammad Tariq was the Conservative candidate in the by-election here in May.

Current council: Lab 29; Con 13; Newport Ind Party 4; LD 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH NORFOLK DC; Stalham (LD resigned)
Candidates:
McGOUN, Barbara Alexandra (Liberal Democrat)
STOWE, Richard Paul (Labour)
TAYLOR, Matthew Patrick (Conservative)

2019: LD 762, 733; Con 464, 397; Grn 232; Lab 127

Richard Stowe was the Labour candidate in Hoveton and Stalham division (which contains most of this ward) in May.

Current Council: LD 26; Con 9; Ind 4; 1 vacancy



WARWICK DC; Whitnash (Whitnash Residents Association resigned)
Candidates:
BARR, Trevor George (Liberal Democrats)
BARTON, Adrian Leigh (Whitnash Residents Association)
KANE, John Edward (Conservative)
PHILLIPS, Lucy (Labour)
RICHARDS, Sarah Jane (Green)

2019: WRA 1487, 1376, 1260; Lab 661, 536; Grn 317, 202, 200; Con 198, 157, 142; UKIP 194; LD 150

Sarah Richards stood for the Greens in Whitnash division (Warwickshire County Council) this May.

Current Council: Con 19; LD 9; Grn 9; Lab 5; Whitnash Residents 2; 1 vacancy



WEALDEN DC; Hartfield (Con died)
Candidates:
MILLWARD, Rachel Hannah (Green)
RAINBOW, Bruce (Conservative)
(I really had to check that I hadn’t got the party descriptions round the wrong way there )

2019: Con 566; Grn 428

Current Council: Con 30; LD 5; Independent Democrat 4; Independent Grp 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



WORTHING DC; Marine (Ind elected as Con resigned)
Candidates:
AHMED, Syed Shamim (Conservative)
MALLIN, Sonya Lynne (Green)
NORTON, Emma Kate (Liberal Democrat)
WELLS, Vicki Claire Janet (Labour)

2021: Lab 1456; Con 1324; Grn 181; LD 140
2019: Con 1140; Lab 907; Grn 267; UKIP 234; LD 232
2018: Con 1460; Lab 1136; LD 194; UKIP 94
Aug 17by: Lab 1032; Con 846; LD 246; Grn 55
2016:Con 961; Lab 415; UKIP 348; LD 217; Grn 185
2015: Con 2296; UKIP 741; Lab 663; LD 472; Grn 455
2014: Con 1114; UKIP 692; Lab 298; Grn 264; LD 189
2012: Con 959; Lab 357; UKIP 349; LD 260
2011: Con 1614; Lab 465; LD 448; UKIP 312
2010: Con 2339, 1981; LD 1467, 1339; UKIP 510
2008: Con 1351; LD 508; UKIP 278
2007: Con 1511; LD 344; Grn 201; UKIP 171; Lab 155
2006: Con 1489; LD 383; Grn 271; Lab 173; UKIP 166
2004: Con 1713, 1640, 1637; LD 586, 499, 469; Grn 488; Lab 290

The outgoing councillor was elected in 2019, meaning this seat will next be up in 2023. Sonya Mallin stood for the Greens in Worthing West division (which contains this ward) in May.

Current Council: Con 1817; Lab 15 16; LD 32; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy
(meaning the Conservatives need to win this to regain majority control of the council)

[jamesdoyle]

It's quite difficult to track a councillor when they move wards, but for additional information: in addition to being a Hillside councillor 2014-2021, Dave was also a ward councillor for Cokeham 2006-2014, and a county councillor 2009-2021: for Sompting & North Lancing division 2009-2013, Saltings division 2013-2017, and Southwick division 2017-2021.
Dave was a very interesting councillor: often at odds with his party colleagues, particularly over social services (he was very pro-); and on workers' rights, about as far left as anyone in politics I've met.

Hillside is the very eastern end of Adur, being the north part of Southwick, bordering on Brighton & Hove
Cokeham is part of Sompting village, and is at the west end of the district, almost bordering on Worthing
Sompting & North Lancing includes Cokeham ward
Southwick includes Hillside ward
Saltings overlaps with neither Cokeham nor Hillside, being the coastal part of Lancing and Shoreham beach

[carlton43]

Nov 19, 2021 18:26:22 GMT jamesdoyle said:

It's quite difficult to track a councillor when they move wards, but for additional information: in addition to being a Hillside councillor 2014-2021, Dave was also a ward councillor for Cokeham 2006-2014, and a county councillor 2009-2021: for Sompting & North Lancing division 2009-2013, Saltings division 2013-2017, and Southwick division 2017-2021.
Dave was a very interesting councillor: often at odds with his party colleagues, particularly over social services (he was very pro-); and on workers' rights, about as far left as anyone in politics I've met.

Hillside is the very eastern end of Adur, being the north part of Southwick, bordering on Brighton & Hove
Cokeham is part of Sompting village, and is at the west end of the district, almost bordering on Worthing
Sompting & North Lancing includes Cokeham ward
Southwick includes Hillside ward
Saltings overlaps with neither Cokeham nor Hillside, being the coastal part of Lancing and Shoreham beach

Not the James Doyle?  The Worthing wanderer, actor and bookseller?

Interesting post.

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 19, 2021 22:06:57 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 19, 2021 18:26:22 GMT jamesdoyle said:

It's quite difficult to track a councillor when they move wards, but for additional information: in addition to being a Hillside councillor 2014-2021, Dave was also a ward councillor for Cokeham 2006-2014, and a county councillor 2009-2021: for Sompting & North Lancing division 2009-2013, Saltings division 2013-2017, and Southwick division 2017-2021.
Dave was a very interesting councillor: often at odds with his party colleagues, particularly over social services (he was very pro-); and on workers' rights, about as far left as anyone in politics I've met.

Hillside is the very eastern end of Adur, being the north part of Southwick, bordering on Brighton & Hove
Cokeham is part of Sompting village, and is at the west end of the district, almost bordering on Worthing
Sompting & North Lancing includes Cokeham ward
Southwick includes Hillside ward
Saltings overlaps with neither Cokeham nor Hillside, being the coastal part of Lancing and Shoreham beach

Not the James Doyle?  The Worthing wanderer, actor and bookseller?

Interesting post.

That's a nice write up, thank you. Yes, that's me. Currently rehearsing Henry Higgins for Pygmalion

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 8, 2021 20:17:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

ADUR DC; Hillside (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLINSON, Rebecca Ann (Labour)
WHITING, Russell Lewis (Green)
WILLIAMS, Leila Yasmin (Conservative)

2021: Con 702; Lab 338; Grn 338
2018: Con 652; Lab 290; Grn 69; LD 33
2016:Con 551; Lab 253; UKIP 186; Grn 40; LD 37
2014: Con 529; UKIP 402; Lab 214; Grn 65; LD 59
2012: Con 499; Lab 268; UKIP 150; LD 61
2010: Con 1008; LD 667; UKIP 294; Grn 141
2008: Con 611; Lab 165; UKIP 149; LD 119
Sep 06by: Con 445; LD 184; Lab 124
2006: Con 684; LD 250; Lab 219
2004: Con 793, 657; LD 429; Lab 353

The deceased councillor was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, meaning this seat will be up again in May next year.

Current Council: Con 18; Lab 7; Ind 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy

I've just realised there's an error in the 2021 result here - but it's not your fault, the council website has it wrong! The Green vote was not 338 (they've copied the Labour figure), it was 89! Much more in line with the previous results...

[Tony Otim]

Nov 20, 2021 10:55:03 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Nov 8, 2021 20:17:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

ADUR DC; Hillside (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLINSON, Rebecca Ann (Labour)
WHITING, Russell Lewis (Green)
WILLIAMS, Leila Yasmin (Conservative)

2021: Con 702; Lab 338; Grn 338
2018: Con 652; Lab 290; Grn 69; LD 33
2016:Con 551; Lab 253; UKIP 186; Grn 40; LD 37
2014: Con 529; UKIP 402; Lab 214; Grn 65; LD 59
2012: Con 499; Lab 268; UKIP 150; LD 61
2010: Con 1008; LD 667; UKIP 294; Grn 141
2008: Con 611; Lab 165; UKIP 149; LD 119
Sep 06by: Con 445; LD 184; Lab 124
2006: Con 684; LD 250; Lab 219
2004: Con 793, 657; LD 429; Lab 353

The deceased councillor was first elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2018, meaning this seat will be up again in May next year.

Current Council: Con 18; Lab 7; Ind 2; Grn 1; 1 vacancy

I've just realised there's an error in the 2021 result here - but it's not your fault, the council website has it wrong! The Green vote was not 338 (they've copied the Labour figure), it was 89! Much more in line with the previous results...

Well, I copied andrewteale's LEAP, who presumably got it from the council website.

[andrewteale]

Nov 20, 2021 11:05:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 20, 2021 10:55:03 GMT jamesdoyle said:

I've just realised there's an error in the 2021 result here - but it's not your fault, the council website has it wrong! The Green vote was not 338 (they've copied the Labour figure), it was 89! Much more in line with the previous results...

Well, I copied andrewteale 's LEAP, who presumably got it from the council website.

You didn't copy LEAP because Adur 2021 isn't there yet. LEAP currently links directly to the Adur and Worthing councils website.

If jamesdoyle has evidence to back up his claim I would be grateful to see it.

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 20, 2021 15:50:52 GMT andrewteale said:

Nov 20, 2021 11:05:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Well, I copied andrewteale 's LEAP, who presumably got it from the council website.

You didn't copy LEAP because Adur 2021 isn't there yet. LEAP currently links directly to the Adur and Worthing councils website.

If jamesdoyle has evidence to back up his claim I would be grateful to see it.

here you go!

[Tony Otim]

Nov 20, 2021 15:50:52 GMT andrewteale said:

Nov 20, 2021 11:05:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Well, I copied andrewteale 's LEAP, who presumably got it from the council website.

You didn't copy LEAP because Adur 2021 isn't there yet. LEAP currently links directly to the Adur and Worthing councils website.

If jamesdoyle has evidence to back up his claim I would be grateful to see it.

Ah - my mistake, I must have just followed the link from LEAP then - it is my usual go to first source

[Deleted]

A Lib Dem defected so if Labour win the Marine by-election, two gains in May will give them overall control in Worthing.

www.worthingherald.co.uk/news/politics/worthing-councillor-defects-from-lib-dems-to-labour-3470477

[shadsy]

Smarkets opening odds just favour a Green gain in Hartfield.

smarkets.com/event/42494318/politics/uk/by-elections/hartfield-by-election

[jamesdoyle]

Out for a walk this morning, which happened to go through Marine ward, I bumped into a Labour supporter delivering leaflets. I asked her if they were going to win on Thursday, to which she replied 'We're quite confident.' Mandy Rice-Davies applies. She asked me if I'd be voting Labour, but of course I don't live in the ward; shows she didn't recognise me, though! About ten minutes later I saw the Conservative candidate and his wife, coming out of a block of flats to which they had been delivering. I didn't bother asking them how they hoped to do.

[matureleft]

Nov 30, 2021 12:31:16 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Out for a walk this morning, which happened to go through Marine ward, I bumped into a Labour supporter delivering leaflets. I asked her if they were going to win on Thursday, to which she replied 'We're quite confident.' Mandy Rice-Davies applies. She asked me if I'd be voting Labour, but of course I don't live in the ward; shows she didn't recognise me, though! About ten minutes later I saw the Conservative candidate and his wife, coming out of a block of flats to which they had been delivering. I didn't bother asking them how they hoped to do.

One or two Chichester Labour members have been to help and they reported back positively. They were very complimentary about the Labour organisation generally in Worthing. 

[jamesdoyle]

Nov 30, 2021 12:36:39 GMT matureleft said:

Nov 30, 2021 12:31:16 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Out for a walk this morning, which happened to go through Marine ward, I bumped into a Labour supporter delivering leaflets. I asked her if they were going to win on Thursday, to which she replied 'We're quite confident.' Mandy Rice-Davies applies. She asked me if I'd be voting Labour, but of course I don't live in the ward; shows she didn't recognise me, though! About ten minutes later I saw the Conservative candidate and his wife, coming out of a block of flats to which they had been delivering. I didn't bother asking them how they hoped to do.

One or two Chichester Labour members have been to help and they reported back positively. They were very complimentary about the Labour organisation generally in Worthing. 

I have seen posts on social media showing formidable numbers out on a couple of recent Saturdays. One shot showed getting on for a hundred people...

I'll post my thoughts on the ward and election prospects after close of play on Thursday.

[matureleft]

Nov 30, 2021 12:41:34 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Nov 30, 2021 12:36:39 GMT matureleft said:

One or two Chichester Labour members have been to help and they reported back positively. They were very complimentary about the Labour organisation generally in Worthing. 

I have seen posts on social media showing formidable numbers out on a couple of recent Saturdays. One shot showed getting on for a hundred people...

I'll post my thoughts on the ward and election prospects after close of play on Thursday.

The bit that was nice to hear was that (at least in front of visitors!) the party got on well together regardless of their personal intra-party views. 

[phil156]

The counts for Adur-Hillside Ward, Highland - Fort William & Ardnamurchan Ward & Worthing - Marine Ward all count on Friday. The rest are all as normal Thursday night

[John Chanin]

Preview up early again (good)

www.britainelects.com/2021/12/02/previewing-the-super-thursday-by-elections-of-02-dec-2021/

[minionofmidas]

I have a question. If Victoria is the most Asian ward in Wales but only the third most Muslim, who are the Welsh Muslims (Somalis? Arabs?) and where do they live (somewhere in Cardiff?) and how concentrated are they?

I cd google but I reckon asking you people is quicker.

[iainbhx]

Dec 2, 2021 16:45:16 GMT minionofmidas said:

I have a question. If Victoria is the most Asian ward in Wales but only the third most Muslim, who are the Welsh Muslims (Somalis? Arabs?) and where do they live (somewhere in Cardiff?) and how concentrated are they?

I cd google but I reckon asking you people is quicker.

Grangetown in Cardiff (no 2) and Pillgwenly in Newport (No 1). Pillgwenlly is the second most Asian ward in Wales. Grangetown has a long-standing Somali population, Pillgwenlly is 5% Arab.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 2, 2021 16:45:16 GMT minionofmidas said:

I have a question. If Victoria is the most Asian ward in Wales but only the third most Muslim, who are the Welsh Muslims (Somalis? Arabs?) and where do they live (somewhere in Cardiff?) and how concentrated are they?

I cd google but I reckon asking you people is quicker.

Highest muslim is Pillgwenlly, also in Newport. It has the second highest Asian population in Wales and is only slightly lower on that metric than Victoria but has a higher black population. Third highest muslim proportion is in Grangetown in Cardiff which has a much larger black population (I would guess including a large Somalian contingent). Of course not all Asians are muslims - there is a non-neglible Hindu population in Victoria - much less so in Pillgwenlly