The Labour winner in Worthing thinks that the Conservatives have lost overall control of Worthing for the first ever. Apart from the fact that they didn’t have it before last night, she’s not aware of the Lib Dem overall control from 1994-99 and 2002-03
Oi, 2002-04! If you count control on the mayor's casting vote
Worthing Labour at the moment seems to have a large enough activist base to fight on several fronts - the county election campaign was an impressive demonstration of ambition. I wondered about Northbrook being in their sights too?
Northbrook would be a logical one for the list when looking for extended targets, but there is a big jump in the Con-Lab (percentage) margin from Castle (3.35%) to Northbrook, the next best, at 21.21%. Being smaller wards, the margin in Northbrook and Durrington is not so bad numerically, but those two wards were also the heart of Worthing's UKIPpery only a few years back, so they may not look so appetising. Northbrook is changing with the major development in the north west part, so that may help move things in Labour's direction more quickly. If Labour can sweep Marine and Gaisford and break into Castle, then N and D would have to be on the radar.
yes to some extent. I think patience is the watchword - get established in wards before getting too far ahead of themselves in other ones; that's the strategy the Liberals have used in boroughs where they have taken control in many cases. They won't want to undercook their campaign in wards which are still clearly marginal at the moment, only Central currently looks all that secure now. The Liberals have sometimes taken their eye off the ball in wards which they thought were safe and ended up losing them (for example when they lost Kew to the Tories in Richmond-upon-Thames in 1978 when they were making large gains elsewhere - though soon afterwards serious local Tory disunity handed the ward back to them), and it's the sort of thing Labour will be very keen to avoid here. There are quite a lot of activists, but spread them into all the marginal wards and it isn't quite as many as it looked on Thursday; some of the activists aren't from Worthing either. As well as me coming down from London (so did Rosena Allin-Khan), there were people from Adur, Brighton, Horsham & Guildford at least on polling day. Some of these will play a part in the 2022 elections, others will be busy with their own elections. So yes there is a good active local party but resources aren't unlimited.
And as well as gaining the two we need for control well have to fight to hold some of the wards we already hold. We should win control before doing anything else
Yes, you're both absolutely right; although I'd add Selden to Central as being secure. Below that, though, Heene, Broadwater, Marine and Gaisford are all being won by slim margins, and a decent Tory candidate could slip through if you're not careful. I wonder how easy it will be for the Tories to find those prominent locals to stand for them now that more work is involved, however. Necxt year will be fascinating whatever happens; I'm already warned my wife that we'll be seeing a campaign like none we've ever had in our ward (Gaisford).
I said last week that no party had had a particularly brilliant or awful week, with a spread from +48 to -23, and you can see that from this week, where four of six parties fall outside that spread, on a similar number of contests. The LibDems had one very poor result (North Norfolk), but that was more than balanced by significant scores in Breckland and Lancaster, and the other negative scores being negligible: -4, -1, -7, etc.. SNP, and Plaid, get their scores from a single contest each, so not too much to say there. Scottish elections are obviously quite difficult to work out performances for, of course, but the SNP, despite being obvious favourites, got a good score because the Ind was so far ahead last time. The Green score is obviously built around Wealden, but they also get decent scores, mainly for good vote increases, in several others, and not too many negative performances. A wash for Labour, winning Marine was excellent, although didn't score as highly as I might have thought because the model uses the comparison to the most recent election, which was also a good win for Labour; the victory in Newport didn't score them too much because of their dominance of the ward, and there was quite a number of small negative scores to offset the wins. Con: terrible overall, one reasonably decent result in North Norfolk, but terrible in both Lancaster contests, Wealden, and Worthing. As I said before the Highland result came through, this is the worst score achieved so far (the previous worst was the Cons on 4/11 at -195), and also bigger in absolute terms than the best week (Greens, 18/11, +223). The next two weeks look like they have potential for big scores for the Cons too.
When you speak to someone, you change the name to the vocative case and aspirate the first letter, so Màiri becomes a'Mhàiri in the vocative case. So if you speak to Màiri, you actually say a'Vàiri.
Now, write it out a hundred times! If it's not done by sunrise, I'll cut your balls off!
I don't care how you live your life, I don't care what's in your head, I don't care what you do in your bedroom. Keep the hell out of my life, keep the hell out of my head, keep the hell out of my bedroom.