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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2021 15:17:59 GMT
The pictures from Fort William appear to typical of a local authority - one or two doing and many looking on!!
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 15:29:36 GMT
SNP gain
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 3, 2021 15:33:37 GMT
They forgot to switch the podium mikes on!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 3, 2021 15:37:06 GMT
1st pref:
SNP 905
Con 485
Grn 328
LD 231
McKenna 194
Matheson 88
Drayton 56
SNP elected at stage 6
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2021 15:52:07 GMT
Adur: Hillside - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2014 | | Conservative | 414 | 56.2% | -6.6% | -6.3% | +4.5% | +14.5% | | Green | 175 | 23.7% | +15.9% | +17.1% | +20.0% | +18.6% | | Labour | 148 | 20.1% | -9.0% | -7.7% | -3.6% | +3.2% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -3.2% | -3.5% | -4.6% | | UKIP |
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| -17.4% | -31.7% | | Total votes | 737 |
| 65% | 71% | 69% | 58% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 1¼% since May, ¾% since 2018, 4% since 2016 and 5¾% since 2014 Conservative to Green 11¼% since May, 11¾% since 2018, 7¾% since 2016 and 2% since 2014 Council now: 19 Conservative, 7 Labour, 2 Independent, 1 Green Breckland: Hermitage - Conservative hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | | Conservative | 243 | 45.0% | -26.3% | -23.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 221 | 40.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 66 | 12.2% | -16.5% | from nowhere | | Workers | 10 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -31.7% | | Total votes | 540 |
| 69% | 36% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 36 Conservative, 6 Labour, 4 Independent Group, 2 Green, 1 Independent Highland: Fort William & Ardnamurchan - SNP gain from Conservativebased on first preference votes| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2017 | since 2012 | | SNP | 905 | 39.6% | +6.7% | +11.3% | | Conservative | 485 | 21.2% | +8.5% | +16.2% | | Green | 328 | 14.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 231 | 10.1% | +5.5% | +4.9% | | Independent McKenna | 194 | 8.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Mathieson | 88 | 3.8% | -0.4% | from nowhere | | No Description | 56 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Baxter |
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| -37.2% | -18.6% | | Labour |
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| -8.3% | -16.5% | | Independent Corrigan |
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| -13.5% | | Independent Maclennan |
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| -12.9% | | Total votes | 2,287 |
| 55% | 66% |
Swing: if meaningful SNP to Conservative 1% since 2017 and 2½% since 2012 Council now: 24 Independent, 19 SNP, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Conservative, $ Highland Matters (including 1 Green), 3 Labour, 1 Sutherland Independent, 1 non-aligned, 1 vacancy Lancaster: Bare - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
amended for Conservative vote 215 not 205 originally reported| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | Since 2015 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 428 | 33.1% | +21.8% | +24.6% | +24.9% | +24.5% | | Green | 301 | 23.3% | +16.2% | +16.2% | +14.8% | +15.4% | | MBI ^ | 243 | 18.8% | -14.2% | -13.9% | -5.4% | -4.7% | | Conservative | 215 | 16.6% | -12.1% | -13.2% | -11.8% | -11.8% | | Labour | 107 | 8.3% | -7.9% | -9.4% | -9.2% | -9.5% | | Independent |
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| -3.9% | -4.3% |
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| -13.3% | -13.9% | | Total votes | 1,294 |
| 52% | 58% | 29% | 30% |
^ Morecambe Bay Independents Swing: MBI to Liberal Democrats 18% / 19¼% since 2019 and 15¼% / 14½% since 2015; Conservative to Liberal Democrats 17% / 19% since 2019 and 18¼% since 2015 Council now: 16 Labour, 11 Conservative, 10 Green, 9 Morecambe Bay Independent, 5 Independent Group, 4 Eco-Socialist, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Lancaster: Upper Lune - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | | Liberal Democrat | 390 | 63.1% | +19.1% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 183 | 29.6% | -16.3% | -43.4% | | Green | 24 | 3.9% | from nowhere | -8.5% | | Labour | 21 | 3.4% | -6.7% | -11.2% | | Total votes | 618 |
| 68% | 41% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 17¾% since 2019 Council now: 16 Labour, 11 Conservative, 10 Green, 9 Morecambe Bay Independent, 5 Independent Group, 4 Eco-Socialist, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Newport: Victoria - Labour hold | Party | 2021 B2 votes | 2021 B2 share | since 2021 B | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | | Labour | 641 | 64.6% | +6.7% | +16.9% | +17.0% | +15.5% | +14.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 258 | 26.0% | +5.6% | +6.5% | +6.3% | -0.7% | -0.6% | | Conservative | 93 | 9.4% | -3.8% | -11.7% | -11.2% | -4.9% | -4.5% | | Green |
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| -8.5% | -4.8% | -4.9% |
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| -7.0% | -7.2% | -10.0% | -9.2% | | Total votes | 992 |
| 50% | 56% | 58% | 63% | 69% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Labour ½% since May, 5¼% / 5½% since 2017 and 8% / 7½% since 2012 Council now: 30 Labour, 13 Conservative, 4 Newport Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent North Norfolk: Stalham - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top | since 2019 "average" | | Conservative | 559 | 55.2% | +25.9% | +27.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 375 | 37.0% | -11.1% | -11.6% | | Labour | 79 | 7.8% | -0.2% | -0.5% | | Green |
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| -14.6% | -15.1% | | Total votes | 1,013 |
| 64% | 66% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 18½% / 19½% since 2019 Council now: 26 Liberal Democrat, 10 Conservative, 4 Independent Warwick: Whitnash - Whitnash Residents hold | Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" |
| since 2015 * "top" | since 2015 * "average" | | Whitnash Residents | 835 | 55.2% | +5.7% | +4.7% |
| +14.5% | +12.5% | | Labour | 431 | 28.5% | +6.5% | +6.5% |
| -0.3% | +2.0% | | Conservative | 127 | 8.4% | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| -14.2% | -14.8% | | Green | 88 | 5.8% | -4.7% | -3.0% |
| -2.0% | -1.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 32 | 2.1% | -2.9% | -3.4% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -6.5% | -7.1% |
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| | Total votes | 1,513 |
| 50% | 56% | | 32% | 36% |
* previous boundaries Swing: Whitnash Residents to Labour ½% / 1% since 2019 but Whitnash Residents to Labour 7½% / 5¼% since 2015 Council now: 19 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 8 Green, 5 Labour, 3 Whitnash Residents Wealden: Hartfield - Green gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 | | since 2015 * | since 2011 * | | Green | 589 | 55.8% | +12.7% |
| from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 467 | 44.2% | -12.7% |
| -24.3% | -32.5% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -31.5% | -23.3% | | Total votes | 1,056 |
| 106% |
| 68% | 99% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 12¾% since 2019 Council now: 29 Conservative, 5 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent Democrat, 3 Independent Group, 3 Green, 1 vacancy Worthing: Marine - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | since 2017 B | since 2016 | | Labour | 1,239 | 50.2% | +3.2% | +17.6% | +10.8% | +2.8% | +30.7% | | Conservative | 972 | 39.4% | -3.3% | -1.6% | -11.2% | +0.6% | -5.8% | | Green | 145 | 5.9% | +0.0% | -3.7% | from nowhere | +3.4% | -2.8% | | Liberal Democrats | 112 | 4.5% | +0.0% | -3.8% | -2.2% | -6.8% | -5.7% | | UKIP |
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| -8.4% | -3.3% |
| -16.4% | | Total votes | 2,468 |
| 80% | 89% | 86% | 113% | 116% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 3¼% since May, 9½% since 2019, 11% since 2018, 1% since 2017 by-election and 18¼% since 2016 Council now: 17 Conservative, 17 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 non-aligned
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2021 15:55:50 GMT
Council now Conservative 17, Labour 17, Lib Dem 2, Independent 1. Labour need two gains in May for control. I would say that with Labour looking to take the remaining Tory seats in Gaisford and Marine (where Labour already hold the other two), Labour are favourites for control next year now. Makes their relationship with the LibDems interesting: 1. they could take control now with LibDem support, but would they want to given they're likely to take sole control in six months; and would the LibDems support them anyway? 2. do Labour target a LibDem seat in Tarring, next May as insurance? if they did, and failed, and also only took one (or neither!) of Gaisford/Marine, then they'd almost certainly have lost the chance of getting LibDem support. with Martin having defected from Lib Dem to Lab, targeting Tarring is increasingly likely as the swing needed from the May 2021 performance, while fairly large, is not impossible. And would not let the Tories in unless they increase their vote considerably from that election |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 16:15:38 GMT
I would say that with Labour looking to take the remaining Tory seats in Gaisford and Marine (where Labour already hold the other two), Labour are favourites for control next year now. Makes their relationship with the LibDems interesting: 1. they could take control now with LibDem support, but would they want to given they're likely to take sole control in six months; and would the LibDems support them anyway? 2. do Labour target a LibDem seat in Tarring, next May as insurance? if they did, and failed, and also only took one (or neither!) of Gaisford/Marine, then they'd almost certainly have lost the chance of getting LibDem support. with Martin having defected from Lib Dem to Lab, targeting Tarring is increasingly likely as the swing needed from the May 2021 performance, while fairly large, is not impossible. And would not let the Tories in unless they increase their vote considerably from that election The swing needed in Tarring is bigger than that needed in either Gaisford or Marine, so it would be possible but unlikely to win that and not win the other two. Scenario 1: Labour win G and M - they don't need a seat in Tarring, or the support of the LibDems Scenario 2: Labour win G _or_ M - the seat in Tarring would give them a majority, but missing G or M would imply they'd likely lose in T too. So no majority, and the LibDems won't support them for control (I assume) Scenario 3: Labour lose G and M - the seat in Tarring doesn't help, and they can only get control with LibDem support, which they now won't get. So, in no scenario is targeting Tarring a good idea. Unless (and it's a big unless) they are absolutely confident of winning at least two of the three next year. Even then, after next year, they'll be defending lots of seats and could slip below 19 at some point. At which point, they need the LibDems... The other argument _for_ targeting Tarring would be that Gaisford comes under East Worthing & Adur Labour, and Marine under West Worthing, so WW could target two seats without diluting too much - but I still think Castle would be a better bet for Labour to go after. I know there is a strong view in many parts of Labour that the LibDems and/or Greens should be squashed whenever possible, and that's something to be factored in, but I hope you see why gaming it out as above shows why it could be shortsighted |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 3, 2021 17:25:07 GMT
LANCASTER Upper Lune Valley HUNTER, Ross Douglas (Liberal Democrat) 390 HARBISON, Iain Scott (Conservative) 183 SHARKEY, Nicky (Green) 24 KENRICK, Faith (Labour) 21 Certainly squeezed the Labour vote. It is a two-horse race. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 3, 2021 17:32:36 GMT
If anyone is waiting for the Highland result, the count was due to start at Lochaber High School at 2 p.m. As we mentioned last night it’s being live-streamed on the Council’s Twitter, Facebook and YouTube pages. Twitter: YouTube: Facebook: fb.watch/9FVdK2hPpM/Is "mh" pronounced like an English v in Gaelic? If so the "head" part of headquarters seems familiar to me; unusually for Gaelic! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2021 17:44:07 GMT
As we mentioned last night it’s being live-streamed on the Council’s Twitter, Facebook and YouTube pages. Twitter: YouTube: Facebook: fb.watch/9FVdK2hPpM/Is "mh" pronounced like an English v in Gaelic? yes (which should feel familiar to you in itself). I'm more amused by the council's Gaelic name though. Isn't most of the Scootish rl Gaeltacht in the Western Isles? |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Dec 3, 2021 18:22:31 GMT
Looking at those screens on the youtube feed, there's a bar chart with 7 entries. There are 7 candidates in that election. Is that a first round result? If so the biggest bar (by a mile) is the second, and way behind is the sixth. If that's in alpha order of candidates, it's a huge SNP lead over Conservative, with the others nowhere. I don’t think so as they’ve only just Tweeted the turnout, which wouldn’t suggest a result was imminent. They may be the graphics waiting for data. Funny how the bars seemed to exactly match the first preferences so closely then.....it does seem strange as this was on screen ahead of the verified turnout being announced, unless this was a live view and the announcements were pre-recorded and played back. |
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Post by samtheodoridi on Dec 3, 2021 18:34:03 GMT
with Martin having defected from Lib Dem to Lab, targeting Tarring is increasingly likely as the swing needed from the May 2021 performance, while fairly large, is not impossible. And would not let the Tories in unless they increase their vote considerably from that election The swing needed in Tarring is bigger than that needed in either Gaisford or Marine, so it would be possible but unlikely to win that and not win the other two. Scenario 1: Labour win G and M - they don't need a seat in Tarring, or the support of the LibDems Scenario 2: Labour win G _or_ M - the seat in Tarring would give them a majority, but missing G or M would imply they'd likely lose in T too. So no majority, and the LibDems won't support them for control (I assume) Scenario 3: Labour lose G and M - the seat in Tarring doesn't help, and they can only get control with LibDem support, which they now won't get. So, in no scenario is targeting Tarring a good idea. Unless (and it's a big unless) they are absolutely confident of winning at least two of the three next year. Even then, after next year, they'll be defending lots of seats and could slip below 19 at some point. At which point, they need the LibDems... The other argument _for_ targeting Tarring would be that Gaisford comes under East Worthing & Adur Labour, and Marine under West Worthing, so WW could target two seats without diluting too much - but I still think Castle would be a better bet for Labour to go after. I know there is a strong view in many parts of Labour that the LibDems and/or Greens should be squashed whenever possible, and that's something to be factored in, but I hope you see why gaming it out as above shows why it could be shortsighted You assume the Lib Dem vote is solid and not just a Bob Smytherman vote. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 3, 2021 18:35:45 GMT
The Labour winner in Worthing thinks that the Conservatives have lost overall control of Worthing for the first ever. Apart from the fact that they didn’t have it before last night, she’s not aware of the Lib Dem overall control from 1994-99 and 2002-03
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2021 18:59:42 GMT
I don’t think so as they’ve only just Tweeted the turnout, which wouldn’t suggest a result was imminent. They may be the graphics waiting for data. Funny how the bars seemed to exactly match the first preferences so closely then.....it does seem strange as this was on screen ahead of the verified turnout being announced, unless this was a live view and the announcements were pre-recorded and played back. don't they enter every ballot into a software that then does the preference flows for them? I seem to recall that. May have been the state of the count. |
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Post by andrewteale on Dec 3, 2021 22:02:48 GMT
Ballot Box Scotland have full details of the transfers in Fort William. The two-party preferred was SNP 1182 C 688.
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Post by monksfield on Dec 3, 2021 22:07:46 GMT
The Labour winner in Worthing thinks that the Conservatives have lost overall control of Worthing for the first ever. Apart from the fact that they didn’t have it before last night, she’s not aware of the Lib Dem overall control from 1994-99 and 2002-03 Whatevers, the overall message is that the Tories are falling back. Looking increasingly like they are on borrowed time at Parliamentary level. |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 22:34:39 GMT
with Martin having defected from Lib Dem to Lab, targeting Tarring is increasingly likely as the swing needed from the May 2021 performance, while fairly large, is not impossible. And would not let the Tories in unless they increase their vote considerably from that election The swing needed in Tarring is bigger than that needed in either Gaisford or Marine, so it would be possible but unlikely to win that and not win the other two. Scenario 1: Labour win G and M - they don't need a seat in Tarring, or the support of the LibDems Scenario 2: Labour win G _or_ M - the seat in Tarring would give them a majority, but missing G or M would imply they'd likely lose in T too. So no majority, and the LibDems won't support them for control (I assume) Scenario 3: Labour lose G and M - the seat in Tarring doesn't help, and they can only get control with LibDem support, which they now won't get. So, in no scenario is targeting Tarring a good idea. Unless (and it's a big unless) they are absolutely confident of winning at least two of the three next year. Even then, after next year, they'll be defending lots of seats and could slip below 19 at some point. At which point, they need the LibDems... The other argument _for_ targeting Tarring would be that Gaisford comes under East Worthing & Adur Labour, and Marine under West Worthing, so WW could target two seats without diluting too much - but I still think Castle would be a better bet for Labour to go after. I know there is a strong view in many parts of Labour that the LibDems and/or Greens should be squashed whenever possible, and that's something to be factored in, but I hope you see why gaming it out as above shows why it could be shortsighted Worthing Labour at the moment seems to have a large enough activist base to fight on several fronts - the county election campaign was an impressive demonstration of ambition. I wondered about Northbrook being in their sights too? |
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Post by listener on Dec 4, 2021 0:51:03 GMT
Fort William and Ardnamurchan - the Lib Dem was eliminated at stage 5.
The Lib Dem votes transferred 35.4% to Con, 19.4% to Green Party, 5.4% to SNP and 39.8% non-transferable.
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Post by batman on Dec 4, 2021 8:40:45 GMT
The swing needed in Tarring is bigger than that needed in either Gaisford or Marine, so it would be possible but unlikely to win that and not win the other two. Scenario 1: Labour win G and M - they don't need a seat in Tarring, or the support of the LibDems Scenario 2: Labour win G _or_ M - the seat in Tarring would give them a majority, but missing G or M would imply they'd likely lose in T too. So no majority, and the LibDems won't support them for control (I assume) Scenario 3: Labour lose G and M - the seat in Tarring doesn't help, and they can only get control with LibDem support, which they now won't get. So, in no scenario is targeting Tarring a good idea. Unless (and it's a big unless) they are absolutely confident of winning at least two of the three next year. Even then, after next year, they'll be defending lots of seats and could slip below 19 at some point. At which point, they need the LibDems... The other argument _for_ targeting Tarring would be that Gaisford comes under East Worthing & Adur Labour, and Marine under West Worthing, so WW could target two seats without diluting too much - but I still think Castle would be a better bet for Labour to go after. I know there is a strong view in many parts of Labour that the LibDems and/or Greens should be squashed whenever possible, and that's something to be factored in, but I hope you see why gaming it out as above shows why it could be shortsighted Worthing Labour at the moment seems to have a large enough activist base to fight on several fronts - the county election campaign was an impressive demonstration of ambition. I wondered about Northbrook being in their sights too? yes to some extent. I think patience is the watchword - get established in wards before getting too far ahead of themselves in other ones; that's the strategy the Liberals have used in boroughs where they have taken control in many cases. They won't want to undercook their campaign in wards which are still clearly marginal at the moment, only Central currently looks all that secure now. The Liberals have sometimes taken their eye off the ball in wards which they thought were safe and ended up losing them (for example when they lost Kew to the Tories in Richmond-upon-Thames in 1978 when they were making large gains elsewhere - though soon afterwards serious local Tory disunity handed the ward back to them), and it's the sort of thing Labour will be very keen to avoid here. There are quite a lot of activists, but spread them into all the marginal wards and it isn't quite as many as it looked on Thursday; some of the activists aren't from Worthing either. As well as me coming down from London (so did Rosena Allin-Khan), there were people from Adur, Brighton, Horsham & Guildford at least on polling day. Some of these will play a part in the 2022 elections, others will be busy with their own elections. So yes there is a good active local party but resources aren't unlimited. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2021 11:33:36 GMT
And as well as gaining the two we need for control well have to fight to hold some of the wards we already hold. We should win control before doing anything else
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