I have a question. If Victoria is the most Asian ward in Wales but only the third most Muslim, who are the Welsh Muslims (Somalis? Arabs?) and where do they live (somewhere in Cardiff?) and how concentrated are they?
I cd google but I reckon asking you people is quicker.
Highest muslim is Pillgwenlly, also in Newport. It has the second highest Asian population in Wales and is only slightly lower on that metric than Victoria but has a higher black population. Third highest muslim proportion is in Grangetown in Cardiff which has a much larger black population (I would guess including a large Somalian contingent). Of course not all Asians are muslims - there is a non-neglible Hindu population in Victoria - much less so in Pillgwenlly
The South Wales ports were home to established Somali communities (among others) over a century ago.
First of all, the importance index I've been working on:
Wyre Forest (Franche & Habberley North)
Highland (Fort William & Ardnamurchan)
Lancaster (Upper Lune Valley)
North Norfolk (Stalham)
Five that are important to the Cons, plus another two of interest; a couple important to Labour, and one for the LibDems. Note that I've grouped Wyre Forest from Tuesday with tonight's elections, as it's a good week/bad week idea, and I always think of all the by-elections in a week as 'belonging' to the Thursday of the week.
Secondly, some thoughts on Marine (Worthing).
Andrew's Preview is admirably knowledgeable and concise, and covers the history very well. As I said a few posts above, I've seen lots of evidence that Labour have been out in force: the local party seems to have kept most of the massive (frankly, incredibly massive) surge in membership they experienced when Corbyn became leader, and what is more they've managed to get lots of them out on the street. The evidence for the Tories getting out and about is sparse. Given all the goings on in the local Tory party, it's not hard to believe there is some backbiting and factionalism going on, which can only hinder things. The Worthing papers have given a lot of coverage to local politics recently, and the by-election (and the reasons for it) have been heavily featured. Even the Worthing Journal, an impressive one-man effort by an ex-Argus journalist which has a lot of local fans, has been having a go at the Tories; this is a bit of change for the Journal, which has often been closed aligned with them, but a couple of their pet projects have fallen foul of the current administration, so that should be interesting to watch. Last May's election would seem to give Labour a lot of hope, but it's well worth noting that the May winner, Beccy Cooper, is very high-profile as the Labour group leader and the first Labour councillor in Worthing in recent history, and she is also the only Labour winner in Marine: between her by-election win, and retaining her seat in May, Labour came up short in Marine twice. So she may have won in May on something of a personal vote. The Cons shouldn't give up hope! There's a big chunk of the ward, mainly north of Mill Road, that should be very fertile territory for Labour - straightforward suburban middle-class streets, where I always found it easy to find Green supporters back in the day. South of Mill Road, the single dwellings tend to be larger, and a bit more resistant to Labour, although shifting: Marine is on the same track as Heene ward to the east, albeit a little slower: attracting migrants from Brighton, and indeed London, looking for decent-sized houses for the price of a flat where they came from. There are also a lot of apartment blocks: some large ones along the seafront, and some smaller ones dispersed through the ward (one of which was the last home of Mark Senior, late of this parish). Although mainly built with an eye to retirees, and hence difficult territory for Labour, I suspect they are also following the Heene evolution, which I saw bringing many younger people to the ward. They're going to be difficult to reach, and canvass data is difficult to build up as they are fairly transient, but if Labour has made good contact with them, they could prove the difference. I'm expecting a Labour gain, but there's a little niggle at the back of my mind that the Tories might be able to hold on.
Andrew in his preview notes that Fort William is named after the Butcher himself, Prince William, Duke of Cumberland. The native scots have never accepted this naming. To this day, the standard Gaelic name for Fort William is An Gearasdan - the Garrison.
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.” H. L. Mencken
TAYLOR, Matthew Patrick (Conservative) 559 McGOUN, Barbara Alexandra (Liberal Democrat) 375 STOWE, Richard Paul (Labour) 79
Tell me about that Lib Dem surge in Norfolk again
Or rather the opposite. Which begs the question: what will election results be like in South Lakeland once Tim Farron retires from Parliament or is defeated following major boundary changes to the Westmorland & Lonsdale constituency?