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Post by owainsutton on Dec 2, 2021 20:11:44 GMT
I have a question. If Victoria is the most Asian ward in Wales but only the third most Muslim, who are the Welsh Muslims (Somalis? Arabs?) and where do they live (somewhere in Cardiff?) and how concentrated are they? I cd google but I reckon asking you people is quicker.  Highest muslim is Pillgwenlly, also in Newport. It has the second highest Asian population in Wales and is only slightly lower on that metric than Victoria but has a higher black population. Third highest muslim proportion is in Grangetown in Cardiff which has a much larger black population (I would guess including a large Somalian contingent). Of course not all Asians are muslims - there is a non-neglible Hindu population in Victoria - much less so in Pillgwenlly The South Wales ports were home to established Somali communities (among others) over a century ago. "Cardiff: Clashes took place on 11 June 1919 between white soldiers returning from the Great War and local Butetown (Tiger Bay) men of mainly Yemeni, Somali and Afro-Caribbean backgrounds." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_South_Wales_race_riots |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 2, 2021 20:30:07 GMT
First of all, the importance index I've been working on: | | Con | Lab | LDm | Grn | SNP | PC | | Wyre Forest (Franche & Habberley North) | 42 | 29 | 19 | 17 | | | | Adur (Hillside) | 67 | 23 | 20 | 10 | | | | Breckland (Hermitage) | 55 | 14 | 4 | | | | | Highland (Fort William & Ardnamurchan) | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 19 | | | Lancaster (Bare) | 40 | 20 | 8 | 9 | | | | Lancaster (Upper Lune Valley) | 53 | 9 | 26 | 3 | | | | Newport (Victoria) | 21 | 60 | 25 | 11 | | 13 | | North Norfolk (Stalham) | 21 | 11 | 60 | 13 | | | | Warwick (Whitnash) | 15 | 18 | 11 | 12 | | | | Wealden (Hartfield) | 57 | | | 24 | | | | Worthing (Marine) | 94 | 60 | 29 | 29 | | | | Average | 43 | 25 | 21 | 13 | 19 | 13 | | Total | 478 | 254 | 209 | 130 | 19 | 13 |
Five that are important to the Cons, plus another two of interest; a couple important to Labour, and one for the LibDems. Note that I've grouped Wyre Forest from Tuesday with tonight's elections, as it's a good week/bad week idea, and I always think of all the by-elections in a week as 'belonging' to the Thursday of the week. Secondly, some thoughts on Marine (Worthing). Andrew's Preview is admirably knowledgeable and concise, and covers the history very well. As I said a few posts above, I've seen lots of evidence that Labour have been out in force: the local party seems to have kept most of the massive (frankly, incredibly massive) surge in membership they experienced when Corbyn became leader, and what is more they've managed to get lots of them out on the street. The evidence for the Tories getting out and about is sparse. Given all the goings on in the local Tory party, it's not hard to believe there is some backbiting and factionalism going on, which can only hinder things. The Worthing papers have given a lot of coverage to local politics recently, and the by-election (and the reasons for it) have been heavily featured. Even the Worthing Journal, an impressive one-man effort by an ex-Argus journalist which has a lot of local fans, has been having a go at the Tories; this is a bit of change for the Journal, which has often been closed aligned with them, but a couple of their pet projects have fallen foul of the current administration, so that should be interesting to watch. Last May's election would seem to give Labour a lot of hope, but it's well worth noting that the May winner, Beccy Cooper, is very high-profile as the Labour group leader and the first Labour councillor in Worthing in recent history, and she is also the only Labour winner in Marine: between her by-election win, and retaining her seat in May, Labour came up short in Marine twice. So she may have won in May on something of a personal vote. The Cons shouldn't give up hope! There's a big chunk of the ward, mainly north of Mill Road, that should be very fertile territory for Labour - straightforward suburban middle-class streets, where I always found it easy to find Green supporters back in the day. South of Mill Road, the single dwellings tend to be larger, and a bit more resistant to Labour, although shifting: Marine is on the same track as Heene ward to the east, albeit a little slower: attracting migrants from Brighton, and indeed London, looking for decent-sized houses for the price of a flat where they came from. There are also a lot of apartment blocks: some large ones along the seafront, and some smaller ones dispersed through the ward (one of which was the last home of Mark Senior, late of this parish). Although mainly built with an eye to retirees, and hence difficult territory for Labour, I suspect they are also following the Heene evolution, which I saw bringing many younger people to the ward. They're going to be difficult to reach, and canvass data is difficult to build up as they are fairly transient, but if Labour has made good contact with them, they could prove the difference. I'm expecting a Labour gain, but there's a little niggle at the back of my mind that the Tories might be able to hold on. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 2, 2021 23:09:43 GMT
NEWPORT Victoria
HORTON, Gavin John (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 641
MILLER, John Edmunds (Welsh Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru) 258
TARIQ, Muhammad (Conservative and Unionist Party) 93
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Post by agbutler on Dec 2, 2021 23:09:53 GMT
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Post by listener on Dec 2, 2021 23:23:36 GMT
Andrew in his preview notes that Fort William is named after the Butcher himself, Prince William, Duke of Cumberland. The native scots have never accepted this naming. To this day, the standard Gaelic name for Fort William is An Gearasdan - the Garrison.
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 2, 2021 23:27:27 GMT
Victoria (Newport) council by-election result:
LAB: 64.6% (+6.7)
LDEM: 26.0% (+5.6)
CON: 9.4% (-3.8)
Labour HOLD.
No Grn (-8.5) as prev.
Votes cast: 992
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 2, 2021 23:40:24 GMT
Hermitage (Breckland) by-election result:
CON: 45.0% (-26.3)
LDEM: 40.9% (+40.9)
LAB: 12.2% (-16.5)
WPGB: 1.9% (+1.9)
Conservative HOLD.
Votes cast: 540
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Post by BucksDucks on Dec 2, 2021 23:41:20 GMT
Highland Council will be streaming the count live tomorrow from 2pm on their various social media accounts.
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Post by BucksDucks on Dec 2, 2021 23:43:17 GMT
Lib Dems gain Upper Lune Valley, Lancaster.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Dec 2, 2021 23:45:20 GMT
Highland Council will be streaming the count live tomorrow from 2pm on their various social media accounts. 2pm. Let me guess, they need the morning for the RO to brush up on Gaelic pronunciation. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 2, 2021 23:46:36 GMT
LANCASTER Upper Lune Valley
HUNTER, Ross Douglas (Liberal Democrat) 390
HARBISON, Iain Scott (Conservative) 183
SHARKEY, Nicky (Green) 24
KENRICK, Faith (Labour) 21
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 2, 2021 23:48:27 GMT
Highland Council will be streaming the count live tomorrow from 2pm on their various social media accounts. 2pm. Let me guess, they need the morning for the RO to brush up on Gaelic pronunciation. Given the area at this time of year it’s probably at least that before the roads are passable to get to the count! |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 2, 2021 23:51:05 GMT
Hermitage (Breckland) by-election result: CON: 45.0% (-26.3) LDEM: 40.9% (+40.9) LAB: 12.2% (-16.5) WPGB: 1.9% (+1.9) Conservative HOLD. Votes cast: 540 Ours next time. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 2, 2021 23:52:14 GMT
Upper Lune Valley (Lancaster) by-election result:
LDEM: 63.1% (+19.1)
CON: 29.6% (-16.3)
GRN: 3.9% (+3.9)
LAB: 3.4% (-6.7)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
Votes cast: 618
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Post by evergreenadam on Dec 2, 2021 23:52:20 GMT
LANCASTER Upper Lune Valley HUNTER, Ross Douglas (Liberal Democrat) 390 HARBISON, Iain Scott (Conservative) 183 SHARKEY, Nicky (Green) 24 KENRICK, Faith (Labour) 21 Certainly squeezed the Labour vote. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 2, 2021 23:53:10 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK Stalham
TAYLOR, Matthew Patrick (Conservative) 559
McGOUN, Barbara Alexandra (Liberal Democrat) 375
STOWE, Richard Paul (Labour) 79
Tell me about that Lib Dem surge in Norfolk again
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Dec 2, 2021 23:56:51 GMT
The Lord giveth, the Lord taketh away
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Post by greenhert on Dec 2, 2021 23:56:51 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK Stalham TAYLOR, Matthew Patrick (Conservative) 559 McGOUN, Barbara Alexandra (Liberal Democrat) 375 STOWE, Richard Paul (Labour) 79 Tell me about that Lib Dem surge in Norfolk again Or rather the opposite. Which begs the question: what will election results be like in South Lakeland once Tim Farron retires from Parliament or is defeated following major boundary changes to the Westmorland & Lonsdale constituency? |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Dec 2, 2021 23:59:11 GMT
It isn't inevitable. In Yardley, we still hold 6 of 8 council seats when in 2019 our general election vote was less than 10%. But yes, it is possible
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 3, 2021 0:01:17 GMT
Stalham (North Norfolk) by-election result:
CON: 55.2% (+25.9)
LDEM: 37.0% (-11.1)
LAB: 7.8% (-0.2)
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
No Grn (-14.6) as prev.
Votes cast: 1,013
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